[Rumour] LeBrun: Flames have interest in Toffoli (and other RHS top 6 forwards)

[Jimdon]

Originally Posted by AC

Worth/value is incredibly hard to figure out. Especially when you look at value across the league vs to that specific team.

Was Curtis Lazar worth a 2nd round pick for a reclamation? That's a really bad look now.

I suspect there would be a lot of teams that would eagerly trade a 2nd for Bennett, but I don't think Treliving would/should consider it because as I said originally, they view Bennett's worth to the Flames team as more significant than that.

My original question that you objected to was "If you only get a 2nd round pick for Sam Bennett, is it worth it?" For the 2019/2020 iteration of the Flames and for Brad Treliving, I think the answer is a strong no.

I think the base of our argument comes from looking at the player and the deal from the perspective of the 2019/2020 Flames vs the value from a birds eye view.

Theres no one in the Flames org that could make the flames a better team with the opportunity that Sam's trade would open up if draft picks were the return, that I agree with.

But that only increases his value to the Flames, not to the teams that want to pick him up.

I also agree with your take on Lazar being a bad deal and it goes right back to the Sven deal for Andersson being bad for Vancouver as well. Reclamation projects in general seldom work out and a team would probably be better off just keeping the picks

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

I tried to get some Backlund talk going in the other thread, but the Trump style Bennett talk just won't die.

Totally impossible.
NO TRADE CLAUSE.
He's a perfect player.
I LOVE SWEDES!

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

He's a perfect player.

Lol. We all wish.

[Since1984]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Lol. We all wish.

He's a perfect third line center... We just need a RHS top six forward or two to help everyone slot in correctly.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by Since1984

He's a perfect third line center... We just need a RHS top six forward or two to help everyone slot in correctly.

Two.

We need two.

Only team in league with no RH winger :/

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

That post was for 5v5 on-ice events for 2018-19 season plus this season.

If I isolate just this season, it's basically the same story... break them up right the heck meow.

Gaudreau w/ Backs: 47.3 CF%
Backs w/o Gaudreau: 51.1 CF%
Gaudreau w/o Backs 52.5 CF%

Monahan w/ Backs: 46.4 CF%
Backs w/o Monahan: 51.5 CF%
Monahan w/o Backs: 51.7 CF%

Memo to Flames: Backlund is not a winger

It’s kind of frustrating watching this team over the years because there always seems to be some insistence to force something that doesn’t work

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Memo to Flames: Backlund is not a winger

It’s kind of frustrating watching this team over the years because there always seems to be some insistence to force something that doesn’t work

Such as a season and a half and counting of Hanifin-Hamonic?

Backlund was just bred for years to be a center in this league. The position is his bread and butter. Just another reason to the list for why bringing in a RH RW is a simple no-brainer at this point.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Totally impossible.
NO TRADE CLAUSE.
He's a perfect player.
I LOVE SWEDES!

Calm your lobster tits, Donald.

[Snuffleupagus]

Twice now I've heard the name Fillip Zadina is a target of Treliving, Euro kid that was a high Detroit pick a couple of years ago, I would assume it would take a young Dman like Kylington and plus a Dube to land him though.

Don't know enough about him but I do know I don't want Dube moved for anyone unproven.

[Brodieyouevenlift]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Twice now I've heard the name Fillip Zadina is a target of Treliving, Euro kid that was a high Detroit pick a couple of years ago, I would assume it would take a young Dman like Kylington and plus a Dube to land him though.

Don't know enough about him but I do know I don't want Dube moved for anyone unproven.

Fillip Zadina is a target of Treliving.
3 times now!

[Braden]

I've seen plenty of times that people wouldnt trade Bennett for 2nd and I dont think I would either. But what would people realistically accept as a sweetner? 2nd and 3rd like the Burakovsky trade? I think I'd be borderline satisfied with a 2nd and 4th. I bet theres teams that would pay that price.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Holy crap. If someone is willing to give a 2nd round pick for a 15 point player, you take it and run. Forget about a sweetener. As Bricktop says:

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Twice now I've heard the name Fillip Zadina is a target of Treliving, Euro kid that was a high Detroit pick a couple of years ago, I would assume it would take a young Dman like Kylington and plus a Dube to land him though.

Don't know enough about him but I do know I don't want Dube moved for anyone unproven.

Where have you heard this?

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Twice now I've heard the name Fillip Zadina is a target of Treliving, Euro kid that was a high Detroit pick a couple of years ago, I would assume it would take a young Dman like Kylington and plus a Dube to land him though.

Don't know enough about him but I do know I don't want Dube moved for anyone unproven.

No chance Detroit is trading him. Also Kylington and Dube would not be enough to obtain him, if for some reason Detroit would trade him.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

No, I'm just a poster that has watched you continually point to Bennett's advanced stats over the last few years to indicate that there is more 'there' there. I'm not someone who needs to be convinced of advanced stats, I'm a true believer. But in this discussion someone has to use counting stats because you will leave them out if they conflict or cast doubt on the numbers you're looking to use to prove your point. I'm not disputing Bennett's advanced stats in the way you have couched his numbers by ranking or percentage instead of using the raw counting stats. Instead you'll use things like his 'rank' on the team in goals per game or his 'percentage' improvement in faceoffs.

Sort of like when you say the 'measures that show the book hasn't been written', when all the stats are telling you is information on previous output, that have for 250+ games shown to inaccurately predict the tangible counting stat ouput of the player.

I'm definitely open to conversation about Bennett's offensive decline this season being an outlier and utilizing a previous season to conclude that given an adjusment in his game he could return to his previous ~25 point output instead of ~15 point output, but that's not what you're suggesting when trying to shut down tranny's point that Bennett is what he is at this point.

You're saying "So yeah it may never happen, but there are legitimate measures that suggest more is to come."

Whereas my understanding is that is not at all what the stats suggest. What the stats are saying is that Bennett should rightfully produce a lot more than he does, perhaps a hell of a lot more. This doesn't suggest there is an explosion on the horizon, it suggests Bennett, over a substantial sample size, simply cannot seem to produce the offense you would expect out a levelized player generating those kind of chances. This is where the counting stats also reflect the eye test.

Either the advances stats aren't telling the whole story or they are somehow flawed in relation to this player.

There is a definite possibility Bennett goes on to have a Bouma/Donovan/Colborne style season where he shoots 15% over 70 games and hits 20 goals. Hockey is mostly luck, anything can happen, but to point to tantalizing advanced metrics as a reason to believe he is likely to be an offensive generating player going forward is the opposite of what they are saying.

What the stats say, both counting and advanced, is that this player struggles to produce offense even in situations where by all rights he should be. That's an indication that regardless of opportunity, it's unlikely to transpire, because it's not about opportunity, it's about individual ability.

Maybe I'm wrong and would love to be educated, but I don't see what you see when I look at the advanced stats, and I'm trying to.

and here's where you try to make things personal again, seemingly to provoke a response. As I've said several times previously, I'm not interested in making this personal. As you're the owner of the website, we're obviously not on equal footing here.

I guess I'd suggest not talking down to others, responding with one word answers and then basically suggesting above that I spin, ignore, and hide data to make my points.

Pretty sure things like that will get you a response. Honestly ... I think that's what you're looking for anyway.

But no ... I don't ignore counting stats. I've said three or four times in the last few days that counting stats aren't there, and if a person thinks that's that I certainly understand.

But I certainly don't try to spin. I'm very forthright about the data I'm using and how I'm using it. If someone suggests his numbers are replacement level I use all forwards. If someone says he should be a healthy scratch I use rankings on the team. Using per 60s levelizes ice time and is common practice.

His underlying numbers are good. Sorry doesn't take spin to show that.

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Such as a season and a half and counting of Hanifin-Hamonic?

To be fair, he drags down the fancy-stats of every defence partner he plays with and Hanifin is merely the one least affected.

[mrdonkey]

I’ll be interested to see how the legend of “playoff warrior Sam Bennett” changes after this season. That is, if the team even makes it.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

I’ll be interested to see how the legend of “playoff warrior Sam Bennett” changes after this season. That is, if the team even makes it.

What are you saying here? Are you wondering if Bennett will play well in the playoffs? If he does, the legend continues. If he doesn't, the legend dies. If we don't make it; well people's memories are short so I'd assume it will carry much less weight when evaluating his importance to the team.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Memo to Flames: Backlund is not a winger

It’s kind of frustrating watching this team over the years because there always seems to be some insistence to force something that doesn’t work

Bennett and Janko as linemates is another example...

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by VilleN

What are you saying here? Are you wondering if Bennett will play well in the playoffs? If he does, the legend continues. If he doesn't, the legend dies. If we don't make it; well people's memories are short so I'd assume it will carry much less weight when evaluating his importance to the team.

That’s pretty much the gist of it, yes.

The last thing we have to cling to with this player is a couple of playoff series where he put up some points in a small sample size. I’m not so convinced that this is strong evidence he’s worth more to this team than he is in a trade, but I understand people will feel differently about this.