In the next 5 years, yes, I think at least one, probably more of those companies will match or beat Tesla in yearly sales.
To be clear you mean in pure battery electric vehicles, just those. Not hybrid, not plug in hybrid. Just cars motivated by batteries alone.
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And with current hardware, Tesla will not be level 5 capable in all conditions. I'd be surprised if they could ever get level 5 with current hardware in ideal weather.
You're shifting goalposts there is such thing as driving in all conditions, for human drivers or AI.
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Originally Posted by Fuzz
Ultimately I think we'll need a new type of insurance that the auto makers are responsible for.
To be clear you mean in pure battery electric vehicles, just those. Not hybrid, not plug in hybrid. Just cars motivated by batteries alone.
You're shifting goalposts there is such thing as driving in all conditions, for human drivers or AI.
Tesla is now in the insurance biz.
Yes, just BEV's.
And I mean level 5 as it is commonly described:
"Level 5 ("steering wheel optional"): No human intervention is required at all. An example would be a robotic vehicle that works on all kinds of surfaces, all over the world, all year around, in all weather conditions." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car
Not just in ideal road conditions. I'm not shifting any goal posts.
I'm not trying to line up some massive bet here, it's just what I think.
I've also noticed that as this thread has gone on you've shifted your goalposts away from the production numbers, and now specifically just talk about FSD.
Which to be fair is what everyone else is doing, since Tesla has solved the production problem and are shipping more cars than ever.
That is how it works with public companies. People love to target certain areas until those areas are fixed then they move on to something else.
FSD is a BIG goal. Hard goal. Almost impossible. But is it really something that you truly think won't be common 3 years from now? 5 years from now?
I just find your whole thought process here strange. They are far, far ahead of everyone else. And the world needs them to drive innovation even further, but at the same time, Tesla alone is not capable of shifting the world away from ICE fully towards EVs. Even at 10x production, Tesla still wouldn't make a dent in overall vehicle sales.
And yet, they are still far, far ahead of everyone else when it comes to EVs.
Ya, I really don't think level 5 will be a thing in 3 -5 years. Maybe 10. It's just too hard of a problem. You either create full AI(which is currently on par with cold fusion timelines) or you somehow program for every edge case, which is impossible, because of randomness. Watching the Tesla try to think it's way throguh tricky situations in the video I posted shows how far they are from getting it. I know there are loads of videos showing it drive well, I'm not interested in when it works, the interesting bits are how it fails. That tells you how far they are away.
Tesla has taken a good 5 years to go from niche production to assembly line. Most auto makers will be much quicker than that, because they have almost everything they need already there. With all the models they are announcing, I just don't see them as far behind as you do. And I don't see why that's such an issue for you. You seem personally offended that my conclusions are different than yours. It's weird.
This is exactly the "can't be done" attitude I mentioned.
Name the top 3 EV auto makers in 5 years.
One of the Germans, one of the Asians and one of the Americans (which could mean Telsa, but maybe not). Not sure which or in which order. But in 5 years, North Americans will still be driving pickup trucks. Electric ones? Doubtful, though Ford says they have one coming out in 2 years.
One of the Germans, one of the Asians and one of the Americans (which could mean Telsa, but maybe not). Not sure which or in which order. But in 5 years, North Americans will still be driving pickup trucks. Electric ones? Doubtful, though Ford says they have one coming out in 2 years.
I think this is easier than predicting FSD (which I've done a 180 on). More thinking 7-10 years for the flip here though, not 3-5
1. Tesla
2. One of the Chinese entrants (probably BYD)
3. VW
There is still a load of Trolley Problem ethics problems to work through. Do you let the AI allow a car mow down an 80 yr old instead of a 35 year old, or does the car hit the old Buick instead of a Lamborghini cause of insurance costs? There is something to be said about the randomness of split second human decisions. They are less prone to manipulation.
I don't think you give the car the info to make those decisions. What if the 80-year-old is Tina Turner and the 35-year-old is Ben Shapiro? What if the old Buick is driven by an idiosyncratic billionaire whose family sues for the cost of a fleet of Lambos? Those judgment calls are best not made at all and you should just program the car to do the least damage possible.
Ideally, self-driving cars will be networked to avoid almost all collisions except in the case of serious mechanical failure. Even then you could get other cars to help mitigate the damage. Take one for the team and get paid out by the other car's owner or insurance. They'll be happy to do it if it saves them overall.
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Tesla goes from a dirt field to production in 1 year, and you are complaining about "a good 5 years to go from niche production to assembly line" what does that even mean?
Tesla has production in or soon will in
Sparks
Fremont
Austin
Shanghai
Berlin
Buffalo*
Are you sure you are not a tiny bit in denial though Zamler? Once the big auto co's, which have factories that pump out a car every 30 seconds start producing EVs you don't think they will out-scale Tesla?
It is interesting as right now the only EVs that sell well are Teslas, so it will be an interesting race for whether other automakers can ramp up sales to match their production capability, or whether Tesla can ramp production to match their sale ability.
While I am very impressed with what Tesla has done, I think other automakers will fill the gap of affordable mass produced EVs before Tesla.
I also think (any maybe this is where I am in denial), that there are people on the sidelines who would buy an EV but don't want to buy a Tesla because of the 'cult' nature of Tesla and users.
BEIJING: Wuling Hong Guang Mini EV has overtaken Tesla's Model 3 as the top-selling electric vehicle in the world in the month of January and February.
According to The Verge, more than 36,000 of the tiny cars sold in January compared to nearly 21,500 Model 3s, and the Hong Guang sold just more than 20,000 units in February compared to just under 13,700 Tesla 3s.
Why is it that 8 out of 10 Tesla's I see on the road are white? I get it's a popular colour, but you'd think people would choose another colour so it's not so cookie cutter looking. At this point, a white Tesla is the electric equivalent to a beige Camry.
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Once the big auto co's, which have factories that pump out a car every 30 seconds start producing EVs you don't think they will out-scale Tesla?
If you say so. Naturally you think it will happen "just because" and make no effort to figure out the logistics of how they will do it. Battery supply, converting productions lines for EV's, software etc. etc.
But there is no convincing some people, who to be blunt do zero research and don't understand why it is not as simple for OEMs to simply flip a switch and start making EVs. If it was that easy they would already be doing it.
Why is it that 8 out of 10 Tesla's I see on the road are white? I get it's a popular colour, but you'd think people would choose another colour so it's not so cookie cutter looking. At this point, a white Tesla is the electric equivalent to a beige Camry.
Because it's free. Black, silver, and blue are $1300 more, red is $2600 more.
What's lol? You laughed at my assumption that other companies would outsell Tesla for pure EV's, you made sure to lay out a whole bunch of qualifiers, and yet here we are, a manufacturer outselling the Model 3, meeting all of your stipulations, long before 5 years. You didn't say it had to be a full size car. And this, the Renault Clio, and similar small cars are exactly what I had in mind when I said that. But I guess I'm still an idiot, so LOL.
If you say so. Naturally you think it will happen "just because" and make no effort to figure out the logistics of how they will do it. Battery supply, converting productions lines for EV's, software etc. etc.
But there is no convincing some people, who to be blunt do zero research and don't understand why it is not as simple for OEMs to simply flip a switch and start making EVs. If it was that easy they would already be doing it.
This is exactly the “can’t be done” attitude that some people have been talking about.
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Because it's free. Black, silver, and blue are $1300 more, red is $2600 more.
Add on the fact that Tesla's quality of finishes isn't great, so paying extra $$$ for a bad paint job isn't the best idea.
I must say I was surprised the other day - I will be looking for a new car in the next few years, so for fun looked at the Porsche Taycan... amazing looking car, and the "base" model with added features I would want is on par with the cost of a Tesla... already prepping my wife for that purchase
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Sure, technologically what they do have is pretty good. But considering how perfect those conditions were, and he is driving in grandpa mode, and still had to take over control of the car after just a couple of minutes isn’t totally inspiring if you’re talking about a car without a steering wheel and acceleration/brake pedals in 18 months to 3 years.
I’ll say it’s 3 years out once you have a successful winter highway test.
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