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Old 03-09-2009, 06:40 PM   #21
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In my job I deal with a lot of banks, and I tend to ask them what is a good buy when ever i get the chance. I keep hearing AMEX as a soild buy right now. Plus my boss is all over it right now. I am not an experienced investor by any stretch, it just something I have hearda few times now from dis connected sources.
... so time to sell AMEX?
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Old 03-09-2009, 06:47 PM   #22
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... so time to sell AMEX?
If I was getting my info from US banks I would have to agree, but apparantly Amex is positioned better than any other CC company based on their client base. I've been told that it has a lot to with the fact that they don't take on credit roaches, and even if their deliquency rate went past their all time high, they would still be poised to turn a profit. Again just what I hear, I am not an expert in the field.
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Old 03-09-2009, 08:33 PM   #23
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Berkshire Hathaway - I think everyone here knows what Berkshire is about

Class A's I hope?

I'm not going to say exactly what companies I am watching and would watch, but I haven't noticed many people interested in bonds so far. I think that there are some excellent opportunities here.
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Old 03-09-2009, 08:34 PM   #24
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Did you buy? It shot up almost 11% today. I bought a while back around Christmas at $28. hopefully it keeps making gains
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Old 03-09-2009, 08:56 PM   #25
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Class A's I hope?

I'm not going to say exactly what companies I am watching and would watch, but I haven't noticed many people interested in bonds so far. I think that there are some excellent opportunities here.

I see it like this :
Over the next 2-3 years bonds should give you 5%-10% returns (range).
and over the next 2-3 years equities should give you 10% to 70% (range).
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Old 03-09-2009, 09:07 PM   #26
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I see it like this :
Over the next 2-3 years bonds should give you 5%-10% returns (range).
and over the next 2-3 years equities should give you 10% to 70% (range).

There is no question that equities give you a bigger bang over the longer term...but if you are actively trading and managing your account you can get the best of both worlds. There are some bonds that are paying 9%+ right now...pretty attractive to add that to some equities!
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Old 03-09-2009, 09:21 PM   #27
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Did you buy? It shot up almost 11% today. I bought a while back around Christmas at $28. hopefully it keeps making gains
I bought SU when it was at $20 and sold it at $25. I figured in this market it's better to take a small gain. Not knowing it would shoot up this high this soon.

If it drops again I will be buying more for sure and holding it longer. But at this pace it might not get back to $20.
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Old 03-09-2009, 09:39 PM   #28
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There is no question that equities give you a bigger bang over the longer term...but if you are actively trading and managing your account you can get the best of both worlds. There are some bonds that are paying 9%+ right now...pretty attractive to add that to some equities!
But if you are actively trading and managing your account (I guess it's Scotia iTrade now ) bonds slow you down with waiting around for maturities and many of them are callable so you aren't in the drivers seat in many cases. I am happy to buy good quality names like AGU where I picked up another 4.89% today alone then wait for 1-2 years to get 9% and the opportunity cost during that 1-2 years is huge. Now is not the time to look the other way from equities as this is usually the time that we should be buying more. Besides even if my equity portfolio tanks I still get out with a 10% loss as I use trailing stops. You are not alone in the bond sentiment though as in January $78 Billion of investment grade corporate bonds were sold by companies that aren't backed by the government so the credit markets are thawing. Now if we can just get that $4 Trillion on the sidelines to come back into the game....
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Old 03-09-2009, 09:48 PM   #29
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^ You're right with that as well. I can't argue with equities and most of my money is going there (personally). I just think that the important thing is to get in while the markets are low!
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Old 03-09-2009, 09:55 PM   #30
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^ You're right with that as well. I can't argue with equities and most of my money is going there (personally). I just think that the important thing is to get in while the markets are low!

Amazing the highs and lows you will encounter when you try to buy low! It takes a lot of patience!
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Old 03-09-2009, 10:11 PM   #31
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Amazing the highs and lows you will encounter when you try to buy low! It takes a lot of patience!

There are highs right now???? You have to be rather unlucky to hit a stock at a high point these days! I frankly can't believe some of the bargains. I seriously dreamt about one company last night....so giddy with the anticipation. I know I'm a nerd for this kind of thing and all, but even for me that was a little over-board!
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Old 03-09-2009, 10:38 PM   #32
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There are highs right now???? You have to be rather unlucky to hit a stock at a high point these days! I frankly can't believe some of the bargains. I seriously dreamt about one company last night....so giddy with the anticipation. I know I'm a nerd for this kind of thing and all, but even for me that was a little over-board!
Truthfully.....not really.....Today the Dow decline of 56% became the second worst bear market decline after the great depression, which between 1929 and 1932 went down 86%. Still though it doesn't seem like a great depression to me. Many of the bargains may take time to pay off but at least you can say you bought low! I was much more uncertain about my investments last June/July vs today
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Old 03-09-2009, 11:03 PM   #33
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[quote=fotze;1706953]
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I was thinking as more for a takeover candidate, they have large tracts of undeveloped land still.

Incurred too much debt with the Canetic takeover. I can't see a company wanting to take on that kind of debt level given the current economic conditions.

I'm really high on Talisman. I like their suite of assets and their management team is making the right decisions.

Anyone have an opinion on Baytex Energy Trust or Crescent Point?
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Old 03-09-2009, 11:20 PM   #34
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[quote=Fueled By Fire;1709264][quote=fotze;1706953]


Incurred too much debt with the Canetic takeover. I can't see a company wanting to take on that kind of debt level given the current economic conditions.

I'm really high on Talisman. I like their suite of assets and their management team is making the right decisions.

Anyone have an opinion on Baytex Energy Trust or Crescent Point?
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I don't own it but it is a good one! In the Bakken oilfield in SE Saskatchewan. Very significant oil in this area and very economical. They have hedges throughout 2009 and may convert to a corporation early and have 1 billion in the tax pool. You buy it for the yield but should get capital appreciation also.
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Old 03-10-2009, 07:59 AM   #35
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The Dow opened up nicely this morning. It's about time!
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Old 03-10-2009, 08:22 AM   #36
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[quote=macker;1706823]
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The potash companies are interesting but still too expensive in my books. If AGU gets back to the low 30's I'd buy some shares.

AGU has a PE ratio of 3.77....I picked this one up in December for $31 and won't sell it til it doubles or I get stopped out but I am confident that it will double sometime in the next year. Look at the droughts in Australia, China, South America etc....there will be a lot of nitrogen based fertilizers used this year!...On February 25, 2009 AGU bid $3.6 Billion to take out CF industries. How many other companies are able to make aggressive take outs in this environment. The food/fertilizer area is a growth area for the next 5-20 years. One stock that you really should be able to buy and hold. I like AGU more than POT as AGU is under the instituional radar for the most part and besides that it is based right here in Calgary. A great company that offers great value even at $40.
I couldn't agree more.......AGU is an excellent buy. I'd expect it to easily hit 120 once the economy recovers - give it a year and a bit.
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Old 03-10-2009, 08:26 AM   #37
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I am also looking at several junior O & G companies. I believe that once all the reserve reports are published you're going to see a lot of take overs. Individual investors are not the only ones looking for bargains - I currently hold the following juniors:

AEN
IAE
SLG
PFX
OPC

I can see anyone of these guys getting bought out within the next year. I was holding Tusk Energy until they were bought out a number of weeks ago
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Old 03-10-2009, 08:28 AM   #38
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Anyone think Citi (C) can keep afloat? Gov't bail out and positive profits for the last two months.

^ I have been following OPC, it has dropped a lot recently as it seems to have a lot of issues with its converter breaking down which is expected for a start up company. What concerns me most is their balance sheet as they have loads of debt right now. I think a company would be weary to take them over because of this. Although, there are rumours out there again that Total may make a bid for Nexen which could help OPC in the short run. If it is indeed true, I would imagine Total would do the same with OPC to have full control of Long Lake.

Last edited by red sky; 03-10-2009 at 08:33 AM.
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Old 03-10-2009, 08:29 AM   #39
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double post
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Old 03-10-2009, 08:58 AM   #40
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The issues they've been having at Opti are around their steam generation and it has nothing to do with the upgrader which is getting ramped up. Over the next year and a bit they expect to get all those things worked out.

It should be noted that Nexen now operates Long Lake after they bought 15% of OPC.

Many people are saying that Nexen will be bought by a Total like company if oil prices recover back into the high 60's.
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