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Old 03-04-2017, 05:09 PM   #1
Caged Great
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Flames 2016-2017 Magic Number Thread.

Here are the current magic numbers for each team. The fourth column is the one with the magic number. If that number reaches zero, it means you are in the playoffs. A win reduces that number by 1. An overtime loss reduces it by 0.5. A loss by the 9th placed team, in this case Los Angeles reduces it also by one. For teams outside the playoffs a loss by the 8th placed team, St. Louis, reduces it by one as that is the team they need to pass in order to get in.



Here is the matchups between each other team. If there are sections that are redded out, it means that there is no mathematical way for that team to catch the other or to fall behind that team.



If the Flames go .500, they will have a 6-6-1 record for 95 points.

Each team will need to have the following records to beat that mark.

Minnesota - 2-12-0
Chicago - 1-11-1
SJ - 2-10-1
Calgary - 7-6-0
Anaheim - 7-6-0
Edmonton - 7-5-1
Nashville - 8-4-1
St. Louis - 9-4-1
--------------------
Los Angeles - 11-1-1
Vancouver - ELIMINATED
Winnipeg - ELIMINATED
Dallas - ELIMINATED
Arizona - ELIMINATED
Colorado - ELIMINATED
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Old 03-04-2017, 05:17 PM   #2
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Here are the current magic numbers for each team. The fourth column is the one with the magic number. If that number reaches zero, it means you are in the playoffs. A win reduces that number by 1. An overtime loss reduces it by 0.5. A loss by the 9th placed team, in this case Los Angeles reduces it also by one. For teams outside the playoffs a loss by the 8th placed team, St. Louis, reduces it by one as that is the team they need to pass in order to get in.



Here is the matchups between each other team. If there are sections that are redded out, it means that there is no mathematical way for that team to catch the other or to fall behind that team.



If the Flames go .500, they will have a 9-9-0 record for 92 points.

Each team will need to have the following records to beat that mark.

Minnesota - 2-17-1
Chicago - 3-15-0
SJ - 5-14-0
Anaheim - 8-9-1
Edmonton - 8-9-1
Calgary - 9-8-1
Nashville - 10-8-0
Los Angeles - 12-5-1
--------------------
St. Louis - 13-6-0
Winnipeg - 14-2-1
Dallas - 16-1-1
Vancouver - 17-2-0
Arizona - ELIMINATED
Colorado - ELIMINATED
St.louis is in tough. Especially after trading away Shattenkirk.

Vancouver---- So your saying theres a chance!!!!!!!
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Old 03-04-2017, 05:17 PM   #3
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I'm sorry I need a eli5
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Old 03-04-2017, 05:19 PM   #4
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^They also have an easy schedule though, will be interesting to see how it sorts out.
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Old 03-04-2017, 05:22 PM   #5
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I'm sorry I need a eli5
Calgary's magic to eliminate all the 9th placed and below teams and to ensure a playoff spot in 15.5 wins or 31 points. Those numbers are reduced by both Calgary wins and losses by the 9th placed team (and those below).

If the Flames beat the Islanders tomorrow, the number will get reduced by one to 14.5 or 29 points. If Los Angeles loses tonight, it will also be reduced by one, so it will be 14.5 or 29 prior to the Flames game tomorrow. If the Kings win tonight, the number will remain at 15.5 or 31 points.

When the # reaches zero, that team can no longer pass Calgary under any circumstances.
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Old 03-04-2017, 05:29 PM   #6
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For example, the number to eliminate all the teams individually right now that are out of a playoff spot are

LA - 15.5 wins or 31 points
WPG - 12.5 wins or 25 points
VAN - 12 wins or 24 points
DAL - 11.5 wins or 23 points
ARI - 8 wins or 16 points
COL - 2 wins or 4 points
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Old 03-04-2017, 05:48 PM   #7
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St.louis is in tough. Especially after trading away Shattenkirk.

Vancouver---- So your saying theres a chance!!!!!!!
15-3-1 will get them to 90 points. Could happen!
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Old 03-04-2017, 05:57 PM   #8
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15-3-1 will get them to 90 points. Could happen!
I could also eat arron wards pubes...but thank god he didnt send them to me
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Old 03-04-2017, 10:48 PM   #9
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Updated after tonight's action




Calgary's magic # drops by 1 due to Los Angeles losing to Vancouver. It now sits at 14.5.
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Old 03-04-2017, 10:58 PM   #10
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Tomorrow's games that have relevance

NYI @ CGY
SJ @ MIN
VAN @ ANA
STL @ COL
CAR @ ARI (not really)
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Old 03-04-2017, 11:06 PM   #11
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Does this take into account head to head games between teams below the Flames? For instance, if LA and St Louis play 2 more times, wthat should reduce the magic number by 2 half games, assuming an OTL for one team. In this situation an additional half game (only) would come off if the was a regulation win.
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Old 03-04-2017, 11:17 PM   #12
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Does this take into account head to head games between teams below the Flames? For instance, if LA and St Louis play 2 more times, wthat should reduce the magic number by 2 half games, assuming an OTL for one team. In this situation an additional half game (only) would come off if the was a regulation win.
It would depend on the actual result. Each team winning a game in OT against each other would only reduce the number by 0.5 for each team only. The ideal situation would be one team winning both in regulation.
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Old 03-05-2017, 11:58 AM   #13
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Tomorrow's games that have relevance

NYI @ CGY
SJ @ MIN
VAN @ ANA
STL @ COL
CAR @ ARI (not really)
It feels weird to cheer for Vancouver, but I'd love to overtake Anaheim.
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Old 03-05-2017, 04:12 PM   #14
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13.5 now assuming the Flames won't blow a 4 goal lead with 12 min left
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Old 03-05-2017, 04:46 PM   #15
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So with this win Colorado officially can not catch us now, right?
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Old 03-05-2017, 04:52 PM   #16
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So with this win Colorado officially can not catch us now, right?
Yes, we are going to finish ahead of Colorado. No Edmonton style finishes for us.
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Old 03-05-2017, 05:21 PM   #17
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Here are the current rankings of each of our remaining opponents. Bold = Home

Montreal - 8th Overall
Winnipeg - 23rd
Pittsburgh - 5th
Boston - 13th
Dallas - T-24th
Los Angeles - T-18th

Washington - 1st
Nashville - 14th
St. Louis - 21st
Colorado - 30th
Los Angeles - T-18th
San Jose - 7th
Anaheim - T-10th

Anaheim - T- 10th
Los Angeles - T-18th
San Jose - 7th

7 games against teams in the top 10
5 against the middle 10
4 against bottom feeders.

The Flames need to mop the floor with the lousy and bubble teams. 6-3 vs the bottom 20 teams would be ideal. That way if they struggle going 3-4 or worse they still will have a good chance to get in and perhaps not in a WC spot.
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Old 03-05-2017, 08:49 PM   #18
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That home and home against the Ducks in April is going to be epic.
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Old 03-05-2017, 09:10 PM   #19
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Looking at the schedule and thinking about projections. I'd say

9-6-1 to 10-6-0 (or better) gets them in the PAC top 3
7-8-1 to 8-8-0 gets them a WC spot
6 wins and you're flirting with the playoff line, but it's still probably >50%
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Old 03-05-2017, 10:01 PM   #20
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Another good day for Calgary. Magic number drops by one again down to 13.5. Anaheim losing also is great.
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