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Old 09-17-2016, 02:07 PM   #1
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Default The Ongoing Super Mega Weather Thread

It's not anywhere close to 22 outside. Once again, weather predictions prove comically over-optimistic. Great day for a barbeque.

How many days in the last three months has has the weather been better than predicted, vs worse than predicted? Maybe 7 vs 83?
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Old 09-17-2016, 02:41 PM   #2
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It's not anywhere close to 22 outside. Once again, weather predictions prove comically over-optimistic. Great day for a barbeque.

How many days in the last three months has has the weather been better than predicted, vs worse than predicted? Maybe 7 vs 83?
Environment Canada says 21 for a high, and 19 currently. How is that "not anywhere close"?
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Old 09-17-2016, 03:08 PM   #3
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It's not anywhere close to 22 outside. Once again, weather predictions prove comically over-optimistic. Great day for a barbeque.

How many days in the last three months has has the weather been better than predicted, vs worse than predicted? Maybe 7 vs 83?
Ya, I hear ya. When it was forecast for 24 today I planned a BBQ. Now it's kinda ####e. I mean, I'll still BBQ, and I'm fine being outside, but I don't think my friend will want her baby out getting cold. Soooo, kitchen party.
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Old 09-17-2016, 03:13 PM   #4
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Great day out there today 19 degrees fresh leaves on the ground air smells like fall.
I enjoyed a great bike ride. Clouds don't ruin my day.
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Old 09-17-2016, 04:02 PM   #5
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Fall rides are awesome. Hope to have time to get out tomorrow.
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Old 09-25-2016, 06:39 PM   #6
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Typhoon Megi, the third typhoon this month, is going to make landfall in Taiwan within the next 24 hours.

While not nearly as intense as Super-Typhoon Meranti, Megi is a much larger storm and is looking to make a more-direct hit on the island. FYI the designation "Super" is given to a Typhoon when it reaches Category 4 status.

Meranti went a little bit south and Malakas kinda turned off to the north, but it looks like Megi has the island pretty dead in its sights. Personally, I'm expecting a day off tomorrow as the storm moves across the island.

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Old 09-26-2016, 11:04 PM   #7
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driveway, what's it actually like in a Typhoon? You don't seem super freaked out or anything, is it just a major inconvenience?
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Old 09-26-2016, 11:41 PM   #8
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driveway, what's it actually like in a Typhoon? You don't seem super freaked out or anything, is it just a major inconvenience?
I was in Hong Kong in 1997 when we were hit by a typhoon. We were all sent home from work and me working really far from home, I remember it taking a long time to get home and the streets being eerily quiet and deserted. The typhoon hit after I got back to the apartment and it was just a little bit of wind and rain.
Turns out it was a pretty big storm.
http://www.cnn.com/WEATHER/9708/02/h...oon/index.html
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Old 09-27-2016, 01:38 AM   #9
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Typhoons (and obviously Hurricanes) are big, bad-ass, serious storms that need to be respected.

However, geography has a huge, huge effect on the impact of a storm. For example, here in Taiwan, most of the population lives in the Western plain, protected from the worst effects of a Typhoon by the mountain range that runs down the middle of the island.

Spoiler!


Those mountains are quite tall, over 280 peaks are above 3,000 meters. This essentially creates a wall into which a typhoon slams and most of the energy get expended on the Eastern coast. Taipei itself sits in a bowl in the north of the island, surrounded by mountains on all sides, again, protecting the city.

That said, it's a serious storm here. Shutting schools and work is totally deserved. What it's like out there today is basically a truly terrible blizzard, except it's rain instead of snow and is going to last for about 24 hours.

So, yeah, think of 24 hours of terrible, windy, school-closing blizzard as being a somewhat "meh" typhoon... and I literally just now received a notice the city is turning the water off in 30 minutes. Most likely because rain has caused backups into city water-supply rivers.

Other parts of the world get much worse impact. Florida, for example, is dead-flat, the highest elevation in the state is 345 feet.
Spoiler!


So Hurricanes just rip across the land, there's nothing to slow them down or force them to dump out their water, so the winds and rain are free to just tear across the whole state.

Another thing I've learned is that the radius of truly, truly destructive winds in a Typhoon is quite small, relative to the total size of the storm.

For example, here is a map of Hurricane Katrina's wind field at landfall:
Spoiler!


It's given in knots, which you multiply by 1.15 I think to get mph. Yellow is the extent of hurricane-force winds (118 kph/74 mph) That little jelly-bean of pink just to the right of the eye is where the strongest winds were, (180 kph/112mph).

However, a satellite or radar image of the storm at the same point looks like a monster.
Spoiler!


So, while a person should never underestimate a storm like this, there are mitigating circumstances to the effect the storm will have on any geographic location.

I will say this, there is no way I would ever, ever, ever try to 'ride-out' a storm if I lived on the coast. A few hundred miles inland, with some hills in the way? Yeah, probably, but right on the coast? Not a chance in hell. If I was ever on a coast of any nation and a hurricane of any size was on the way in, I would get the hell out, no questions asked.
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Old 09-27-2016, 06:12 AM   #10
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I was in Jamaica for Huricane Sandy. It was only cat 1 when it hit us, but wow. You could tell it was serious because all the staff went about their business quickly and quietly. No one ever works quickly in Jamaica. But they were zipping around, picking up anything that could be moved and tying down anything that couldn't All the outdoor light chandeliers got removed.

Just before they closed the pool down we went and had a "hurricane party" down there. We were playing around as the wind kicked up to insane levels. When a couple chez lounge chairs broke free of the stack, flew through the air and landed in the pool, well, that was time to GTFO. Most of the staff left to be with their families, and we were basically locked down. The place was eerily quite, in spite of the wind all around us. 12 hours later it was all over. It isn't something I'd want to go through every few years. No way. To much stress.
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Old 09-27-2016, 12:22 PM   #11
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Another reason Typhoons are shrugged off more so than Hurricanes is partially because of their frequency. When you have a major storm hit your house every 10 years vs 25+ you either re-build your house into a bunker or like driveway mentioned move behind land barriers and mountains.

If Hurricanes were as frequent as Typhoons places like Miami and New Orleans would look vastly different today.
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Old 10-04-2016, 04:53 PM   #12
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Welp, it had to happen at some point. I'm going to be experiencing my first hurricane in a couple days. Matthew is headed this way, and it's expected to be a category 3 by the time it gets here, which is still over 100 MPH winds. Kinda freakin' out right now. Anyone have any comforting thoughts?
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Old 10-04-2016, 04:57 PM   #13
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Anyone have any comforting thoughts?
Squiggs has you covered for the Game Day Threads.
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Old 10-04-2016, 04:58 PM   #14
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Can I have your stuff?
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Old 10-04-2016, 05:01 PM   #15
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Welp, it had to happen at some point. I'm going to be experiencing my first hurricane in a couple days. Matthew is headed this way, and it's expected to be a category 3 by the time it gets here, which is still over 100 MPH winds. Kinda freakin' out right now. Anyone have any comforting thoughts?
It could be worse, you could live in Edmonton.
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Old 10-04-2016, 05:10 PM   #16
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Welp, it had to happen at some point. I'm going to be experiencing my first hurricane in a couple days. Matthew is headed this way, and it's expected to be a category 3 by the time it gets here, which is still over 100 MPH winds. Kinda freakin' out right now. Anyone have any comforting thoughts?
You'll be okay. Your city is used to hurricanes and has the infrastructure to withstand it.

Advice: be prepared to be without water/power for 48 hours. Don't tape your windows - the only thing it does is ensure that flying glass will be held together in large pieces. Bring in anything from outside that could fly around.

Basically, go to the NOAA Hurricane centre website, follow their advice to the letter, and you'll come through this just fine.

Also, get ready to see some of the most incredible weather of your life.

Some comfort: I'm reasonably sure that it's the northwestern part of the eyewall of an Atlantic hurricane which has the most intense winds, based on Matthew's path you should be spared that.

Most likely circumstance: Matthew stays slightly out in the water, you get 24 hours of "oh WOW!" weather, and then spend Saturday cleaning sticks and branches out of your yard.
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Old 10-04-2016, 05:12 PM   #17
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Welp, it had to happen at some point. I'm going to be experiencing my first hurricane in a couple days. Matthew is headed this way, and it's expected to be a category 3 by the time it gets here, which is still over 100 MPH winds. Kinda freakin' out right now. Anyone have any comforting thoughts?
Keep an eye on this:

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

And when the storm gets closer you can read through the comments section of the latest post for the (lack of a better term) game day thread for real time updates and discussion.
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Old 10-04-2016, 05:17 PM   #18
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It could be worse, you could live in Edmonton.
Ah, you're right, that IS comforting.
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Old 10-05-2016, 03:28 AM   #19
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It's definitely a dump. But a dump free of hurricanes.
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Old 10-05-2016, 08:08 AM   #20
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It's definitely a dump. But a dump free of hurricanes.
You guys should put that on the sign.

"Not the City of Champions, but Hurricane-free"
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