Playoff Probabilities

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Red

Most of these players listed were nobodies like our own group. It took team success and an opportunity to succeed to elevate their value. Who's to say that with a different coach Bennet wouldn't be a 20 G guy. Or Brodie isn't the NHLs envy. Or Gio is the top 3 d in Norris voting.

Or maybe they were at one point ?

Also I recall a bunch of teams that were stacked and did nothing. Can we forget the Rangers of late 90s or the Selane + Kariya Aves? We saw this year after year. Star players are only a part of the equation.

Or it could be that we haven't drafted forwards very well. Sam Bennett doesn't have a lot of outstanding qualities that would make him a dynamic scorer whereas 2 guys picked behind him in Nylander and Ehlers do.

I don't see a new coach changes Sam Bennett at all. Even playing with a top 3 scorer in Johnny Gaudreau didn't work out. Sam gets plenty of chances and doesn't convert, just look at the last game as an example. He pots one of the many grade A chances he had and we probably win.

Another guy like Jankowski, he has potential, but he's hit the rookie wall hard. Ferland was a 4th liner turned 1st liner and he's done exceptionally well, but he only has 1 goal in his last 17 games. Frolik and Backlund are shut down guys, but they've struggled to produce as of late. Lazar and Brouwer were just mistakes made by management. Stajan is a PTO player this fall. Jagr couldn't stay healthy.

To me, it's just very obvious that this team lacks the scoring punch that other teams have. Even Treliving admitted so several times before the season started. So clearly, even he knew this team was lacking in this area. Blaming coaching is a total cop out because Gaudreau is on pace for 95 points, Monahan almost a ppg, Ferland already a career season, Hamilton has seen more success and Backlund as well and etc. These guys have thrived, why haven't the others then? It's not always coaching.

[Karl]

Not all that optimistic about the playoffs happening this year.

This team just is not getting enough depth scoring. Really doesn't look like it's their year.

[The Boy Wonder]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Or it could be that we haven't drafted forwards very well. Sam Bennett doesn't have a lot of outstanding qualities that would make him a dynamic scorer whereas 2 guys picked behind him in Nylander and Ehlers do.

I don't see a new coach changes Sam Bennett at all. Even playing with a top 3 scorer in Johnny Gaudreau didn't work out. Sam gets plenty of chances and doesn't convert, just look at the last game as an example. He pots one of the many grade A chances he had and we probably win.

Another guy like Jankowski, he has potential, but he's hit the rookie wall hard. Ferland was a 4th liner turned 1st liner and he's done exceptionally well, but he only has 1 goal in his last 17 games. Frolik and Backlund are shut down guys, but they've struggled to produce as of late. Lazar and Brouwer were just mistakes made by management. Stajan is a PTO player this fall. Jagr couldn't stay healthy.

To me, it's just very obvious that this team lacks the scoring punch that other teams have. Even Treliving admitted so several times before the season started. So clearly, even he knew this team was lacking in this area. Blaming coaching is a total cop out because Gaudreau is on pace for 95 points, Monahan almost a ppg, Ferland already a career season, Hamilton has seen more success and Backlund as well and etc. These guys have thrived, why haven't the others then? It's not always coaching.

The top guys have thrived regardless of the coach.

Saying we would've won last game if Bennett score on one of his chances is like saying Marchand wouldn't have scored if brodie didn't pass that puck, or if the flames had scored on one more of their shots.

Whenever Bennett has gotten time playing a skilled game and not being told to crash and bang on the third line. Whenever he gets to play with tkachuk or gaudreau the chemistry is unreal and I think another coach would see it.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by The Boy Wonder

That's what I think it is:

Our top guys have been stellar with this coaching staff, but they were also stellar under the last coaching staff,

Our young guys and underachieving guys haven't been good under this coaching staff. Would be great to change it up and see what happens with a new approach.

Getting Bennett in positions with players he has shown incredible chemistry with in limited playing time (tkachuk or gaudreau) and letting brodie drive play from the back end like he could under Hartley might be just the kick in the butt these guys need

Like every season, players rise and players fall. We've seen career highs this season and yet drops in production from others. For example, Stajan put up 23 points last season, significantly more so than his previous year under Hartley. But this season, playing the exact same role, he has 6 points. Is that on coaching, or is that on the player? Almost assuredly, it's on the player. Wouldn't make sense that it's on the coach.

I believe in any situation, it's up to the player to seize opportunities and out play the competition in front of them. Has Bennett shown anything in the last 2 seasons that he deserves to play on the 1st line or a shutdown role against the opposition's top lines? No, not to me. That RW spot was open and Ferland won the position fair and square with his strong play and chemistry. Until Bennett shows he can drive play and out duel the opposition's 3rd lines, I don't see any reason to play him any higher.

In my opinion, management has focused too much on edge and truculence and not enough on speed and skill. That's why we're not where we think we should be.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by The Boy Wonder

The top guys have thrived regardless of the coach.

Saying we would've won last game if Bennett score on one of his chances is like saying Marchand wouldn't have scored if brodie didn't pass that puck, or if the flames had scored on one more of their shots.

Whenever Bennett has gotten time playing a skilled game and not being told to crash and bang on the third line. Whenever he gets to play with tkachuk or gaudreau the chemistry is unreal and I think another coach would see it.

That was just an example of the much larger theme of Sam Bennett's story this season. He's blown tons of grade A chances this season. You may think differently, but he's had his chances up at the top this season and he hasn't shown enough to beat anyone out of a spot. He's definitely not surpassing other LWs like Gaudreau and Tkachuk.

We've also seen him with time on the PP and he has 3 PP points this season and had 4 PP points last season. Where's the growth? Nobody coaches Sam Bennett to play crash and bang, it's just obvious he doesn't have the dynamic skill set to be a top 6 player right now. Coaching wouldn't change anything. This team isn't built around Sam Bennett, he's just a cog to the overall machine and he along with others have been disappointing.

Just look at Curtis Lazar as an example, did a new coach help this former highly touted 1st round pick become the player that he was drafted to be? No, he's struggled just as much in Ottawa as he has here. Blaming the coach is a total cop out.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Pretty sure Gulutzan has a 3 year deal so his contract won't be up until 2019. I also disagree that we're skilled enough to go deep. We have 1 elite play maker, a lot of inconsistent finishers and plenty of grinders. People need to adjust their expectations. Just look at other teams that are expected to go deep and compare:


Pittsburgh: Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Hornqvist, Guentzel and etc
Tampa: Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, Johnson, Palat, Namestnikov, Gourde & etc
Winnipeg: Wheeler, Scheifele, Ehlers, Laine, Little, Connor, Perreault and etc
Boston: Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak, Krejci, Spooner, Backes, Heinan & etc
Nashville: Forsberg, Arvidsson, Johansen, Turris, Fiala, Smith, Hartnell, Bonino and etc
Toronto: Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Vanriemsdyk, Kadri, Marleau, Bozak & etc


There's other teams, but I think everyone gets the point. Does anyone honestly think our forward group has anything on these teams? We still have a lot of young guys who still need to grow into high impact players, but aren't there yet or may not get there. But there's no question in my mind that we're not even close to being deep enough to go far. We're extremely top heavy and the stats and eye test prove that to me.

While it's certainly fun to see my team listed among elite clubs like Nashville Boston and Tampa, Blake Wheeler was right earlier when he said that Jets fans need to pump their breaks. We haven't even won a playoff game yet as a club, so a deep run, while fun, certainly isn't the 1st goal. We probably finish with home ice and a 1st round match with a hot team like Dallas seems imminent; I'm not holding my breath for any post season success. Just want to enjoy the ride and break out my White Out avatar again.

[PsYcNeT]

Van Riemsdyk? An ancient Marleau? Bozak???

In what world are those 4 players an effective core? Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Kadri, Rielly (when not injured) and Andersen are dragging the rest of the TML into the playoffs, despite their mediocrity.

[The Boy Wonder]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

That was just an example of the much larger theme of Sam Bennett's story this season. He's blown tons of grade A chances this season. You may think differently, but he's had his chances up at the top this season and he hasn't shown enough to beat anyone out of a spot. He's definitely not surpassing other LWs like Gaudreau and Tkachuk.

We've also seen him with time on the PP and he has 3 PP points this season and had 4 PP points last season. Where's the growth? Nobody coaches Sam Bennett to play crash and bang, it's just obvious he doesn't have the dynamic skill set to be a top 6 player right now. Coaching wouldn't change anything. This team isn't built around Sam Bennett, he's just a cog to the overall machine and he along with others have been disappointing.

Just look at Curtis Lazar as an example, did a new coach help this former highly touted 1st round pick become the player that he was drafted to be? No, he's struggled just as much in Ottawa as he has here. Blaming the coach is a total cop out.

I guess no matter how much you and I argue I won't be able to convince you that Bennett is any good and you won't be able to convince me that the flames have given him a fair shake. When he played on backlunds line two years ago he was excellent. Then he was given an opportunity to centre his own line and that failed, but to say he's been given a fair chance playing in the top six under this coaching staff is just false.

Bennett shouldn't pass either gaudreau or tkachuk on the LW depth but they should rather look at playing him and tkachuk on the same line with either janko or backlund. All three of those guys have shown chemistry playing together with maybe the exception of janko and tkachuk but I think moving either tkachuk or Bennettt to RW and trying it out would be a welcome move. This club has lost 4 of 6 and yet we trot out the same forward line combinations no matter what.

Bennett hasn't, under gulutzan, had any real opportunities to seize a top six role... if you actually believe he was given the same shot a Ferland at playing on the top line? ~20 games between last year and early this season where Ferland looked terrible but hotbed a chance to play through it.


If you want to blame Bennett for this team being poorly coached and not winning games be my guest but that's an idiot take on things

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

While it's certainly fun to see my team listed among elite clubs like Nashville Boston and Tampa, Blake Wheeler was right earlier when he said that Jets fans need to pump their breaks. We haven't even won a playoff game yet as a club, so a deep run, while fun, certainly isn't the 1st goal. We probably finish with home ice and a 1st round match with a hot team like Dallas seems imminent; I'm not holding my breath for any post season success. Just want to enjoy the ride and break out my White Out avatar again.

Jets are stacked at forward. I felt this even before they nabbed Laine so now they’re even deeper. The Jets know how to draft and I’m jealous because they find excellent forwards no matter where they pick. Kyle Connor already is terrific, Roslovic isn’t too far off and the your 2017 1st round could be a steal as well. Some teams just have the formula and your team definitely has a chance at the cup for the next while here.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by The Boy Wonder

I guess no matter how much you and I argue I won't be able to convince you that Bennett is any good and you won't be able to convince me that the flames have given him a fair shake. When he played on backlunds line two years ago he was excellent. Then he was given an opportunity to centre his own line and that failed, but to say he's been given a fair chance playing in the top six under this coaching staff is just false.

Bennett shouldn't pass either gaudreau or tkachuk on the LW depth but they should rather look at playing him and tkachuk on the same line with either janko or backlund. All three of those guys have shown chemistry playing together with maybe the exception of janko and tkachuk but I think moving either tkachuk or Bennettt to RW and trying it out would be a welcome move. This club has lost 4 of 6 and yet we trot out the same forward line combinations no matter what.

Bennett hasn't, under gulutzan, had any real opportunities to seize a top six role... if you actually believe he was given the same shot a Ferland at playing on the top line? ~20 games between last year and early this season where Ferland looked terrible but hotbed a chance to play through it.


If you want to blame Bennett for this team being poorly coached and not winning games be my guest but that's an idiot take on things

Backlund bumps up everyone’s game. Just look at Bouma and Colborne’s strong seasons as an example and now where are they? Bennett’s needs further development before he earns a top 6 spot. I certainly haven’t felt like he’s played his way on to one of those 2 lines at any point during his time with Gaudreau or whoever.

He’s playing where he should be right now, 3rd line minutes with some 2nd unit powerplay time. I’m not sure why you’re so against him playing with Jankowski either, the 2 played excellent together throughout December, but his play has dropped off significantly since then and the bad penalties have crept into his game again. Until he finds consistently to his game and plays betters in all areas of his game, I think the linemates and minutes he’s getting is fine. It’s not like Gaudreau or Tkachuk need help from Bennett to prop up their games right now anyway, they’re doing well with their current linemates.

Lastly, the coaching has been fine in my opinion, if certain players on the bottom 6 scored at the same rate as they did last season under the same coach, we’d probably be comfortably in a playoff position. But we are no where close to beinf an elite team until we statt to upgrade a lot of the forwards on this team.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by The Boy Wonder

Our young guys and underachieving guys haven't been good under this coaching staff.

Some young guys have been VERY good under GG (Tkachuk, Ferland) and others have struggled (Sam, Brodie). Hamilton has been good. So which other young guys have struggled?
So I don't think you can say that young haven't been good.
And yes underachieving guys haven't been good - that's why they are underachieving.

[Duffalufagus]

Just don’t see us beating out two of the Kings/Sharks/Ducks. Hope I’m wrong.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

Just don’t see us beating out two of the Kings/Sharks/Ducks. Hope I’m wrong.

Don’t need to. Question is can we beat out St Louis, Minnesota and Colorado? Probably wouldn’t think so until you compare schedules. It’s not completely crazy.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Don’t need to. Question is can we beat out St Louis, Minnesota and Colorado? Probably wouldn’t think so until you compare schedules. It’s not completely crazy.

This

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Pittsburgh: Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Hornqvist, Guentzel and etc
Tampa: Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, Johnson, Palat, Namestnikov, Gourde & etc
Winnipeg: Wheeler, Scheifele, Ehlers, Laine, Little, Connor, Perreault and etc
Boston: Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak, Krejci, Spooner, Backes, Heinan & etc
Nashville: Forsberg, Arvidsson, Johansen, Turris, Fiala, Smith, Hartnell, Bonino and etc
Toronto: Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Vanriemsdyk, Kadri, Marleau, Bozak & etc

Some of the guys listed here aren't that great.

Pretty much that one legit RW away from being able to compete with them.

We'll never match Crosby and Malkin. But hell, no one else will either.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by DJones

Some of the guys listed here aren't that great.

Pretty much that one legit RW away from being able to compete with them.

We'll never match Crosby and Malkin. But hell, no one else will either.

Do you guys even bother to look at their stats at all? Sure the names of every player aren’t recognizable, but virtually every player is a 20-30 goal scorer. These teams all have a chance to go deep because they can send any line other there and any one of them can create a goal. We have 1 line and sometimes 2, that we can rely on, that’s it. We’re not an elite team and we won’t be until we find more skilled forwards.

[hwy19man]

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

The Flames have a 51.5% chance, the Ducks 54.6%, and the sinking Blues at 55.2%.

[Brick]

Not looking good...

32.2%

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

[united]

Advanced stats models are still more confident than goal-based, but all are tightening up as you would expect - with the exception of MoneyPuck that uses 20 fewer games of data.

MoneyPuck: 70% (advanced with first 20 games omitted and assigns OT at 50/50)
The Athletic: 43% (advanced and accounts for injuries and line combinations)
Corsica: 35% (advanced)
HockeyViz: 30% (advanced)

Hockey Reference: 32%
Sports Club Stats: 29%

[hwy19man]

Originally Posted by Brick

Not looking good...

32.2%

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

It has dropped again 19.5% and the Blues are at 31.6%, the rest of the teams are above fifty percent.