[News] Flames done for the day. Gustafsson, Davidson, Forbort only deals

[Itse]

Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing

It also depends if you go weighted or 50-50.
Weighted we are at 44.6, while Nashville is 58.2 and Arizona above the cut line at 46.7.
50-50 has us at 56.4, Nashville at 59.5 and Arizona at 33.8, so a pretty huge swing.

On this topic btw, the win over Boston gave us a huge bump in the odds.
Calgary now at 58.1%

Kind of feels that way too. This was an impressive win.

But also makes the odds look a bit silly tbh.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Itse

On this topic btw, the win over Boston gave us a huge bump in the odds.
Calgary now at 58.1%

Kind of feels that way too. This was an impressive win.

But also makes the odds look a bit silly tbh.

Agreed. Heading into yesterday's game I felt pretty confident about a win if for no other reason than that the Flames and Bruins have a recent trend of splitting their games. It's the same with a team like Vegas: I suspect that the odds have designated their next two games as losses more often than not, but historically speaking the Flames absolutely own VGK on home ice.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by Itse

On this topic btw, the win over Boston gave us a huge bump in the odds.
Calgary now at 58.1%

Kind of feels that way too. This was an impressive win.

But also makes the odds look a bit silly tbh.

If the odds are tied to strength of schedule it kind of makes sense to me.

A Flames win improves their odds by reducing the magic #, the Jets only getting one point also increased the Flames odds by reducing the magic #, losses by 9 future opponents (TBLx2, CBJ, ARI, NYIx2, WPGx2 and EDM) also improved the odds by lowering their PT%, wins by 5 future opponents (NSH, FLA, NYR, NJD, AHM and VAN) would then decrease the odds and lastly the Flames no longer having a game against the best team in the league improves the Flames strength of schedule, thus improving their odds.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Itse

On this topic btw, the win over Boston gave us a huge bump in the odds.
Calgary now at 58.1%

Kind of feels that way too. This was an impressive win.

But also makes the odds look a bit silly tbh.

The one thing that is against us though is the shootout wins that we have.

[djsFlames]

The odds change everyday. It's not a great indicator.

Win 60+ percent of your remaining games and you're probably in. That much you can bet on.

[united]

In isolation, I'm fine with the Flames' moves, but the Forbort acquisition speaks to a larger, ongoing, process with this #3 LD spot.

The Flames have now moved two fourth-round picks to fill a spot that could have been adequately filled by Brett Kulak for no draft capital had the Flames not nickel-and-dimed him for a couple hundred thousand. I'm under no disillusions as to what Brett Kulak is, but to me the Flames have spent two draft picks in exchange for 40-games of equal caliber players - the net difference between Kulak and either Forbort or Fantenberg over a 20-game sample, respectively, is extremely small. Even if the Flames were to go deep into the playoffs, the net difference between two bottom-roster defencemen is very small. Is that worth a rental of this caliber given where the Flames are at?

I do like the Forbort acquisition more than the previous Fantenberg one because at least he brings size to the lineup, whereas Fantenberg brought absolutely nothing at all, but it's still a move that likely results in another draft pick out the window for a needless rental. Should the Flames make the playoffs, hopefully Forbort has the aggression to mix it up when things get heated. Again, fine with this in isolation.

Regarding Forbort having played on the first pairing, which is undeniably true, that in itself isn't indicative he is able to handle those minutes or should have ever been put in that situation. Flames fans will have unfortunate memories of this same scenario playing out with another third-pairing defender being handed first-pairing minutes continuously, for some reason, in Chris Butler. I'm not saying Forbort is a pure glass-and-out defenceman like Michael Stone, because he is better than that, nor am I claiming a fourth-round pick is a likely bet. I simply question the process of exchanging assets for players who hardly move the needle especially when a comparable player (in net contribution, not style) was right there for no acquisition cost.


Interested in the thought process being the Gustafsson acquisition as it almost seems like he is brought in to push Kylington out of the lineup, despite the LD-RD piece. Kylington's offensive game has yet to translate so are the Flames intending to replace his erratic and inconsistent defensive game with another player who has an erratic and inconsistent defensive game but more offensive acumen? Hopefully it isn't purely a move for the powerplay as 20 games of powerplay time over Giordano/Andersson/Hanifin will make little tangible difference and certainly not to a third-round pick level. What happens when/if Hamonic comes back? If Hamonic results in Gustafsson being dropped then the Flames have spent draft capital on even fewer than 20 games (pending re-signing).

[Inferno]

Wasn't the reason Kulak was moved was because Valimaki beat him out and Treliving didn't want to bury him in the minors?

[djsFlames]

Treliving was way too enamored with Valimaki, clouded his judgment.

Good prospect still, but he made some rather large decisions with a trickle down effect (kulak out, spending multiple picks since to plug that hole, passing up Stone, needing top 6 skill since, all while Valimaki sits out almost two seasons), that were directly made to help facilitate him playing on the team, which hasn't come to fruition yet.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Treliving was way too enamored with Valimaki, clouded his judgment.

Good prospect still, but he made some rather large decisions with a trickle down effect (kulak out, spending multiple picks since to plug that hole, passing up Stone, needing top 6 skill since, all while Valimaki sits out almost two seasons), that were directly made to help facilitate him playing on the team, which hasn't come to fruition yet.

The only thing he didn’t foresee was the injury. Barring that there’s zero chance Valimaki isn’t on the team (and Kulak is out)

ETA: Kulak isn’t very good this year - he’d slit in somewhere behind Kylington anyway.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Treliving was way too enamored with Valimaki, clouded his judgment.

Good prospect still, but he made some rather large decisions with a trickle down effect (kulak out, spending multiple picks since to plug that hole, passing up Stone, needing top 6 skill since, all while Valimaki sits out almost two seasons), that were directly made to help facilitate him playing on the team, which hasn't come to fruition yet.

Bizarre take. The reason they moved picks for D this year is due to Gio, Valimaki and Hamonic being injured.

They passed on Stone because they couldnt afford a 9.5M contract (probably more than $10M in Calgary). Stone doesn’t change the playoff result from last year.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Bizarre take. The reason they moved picks for D this year is due to Gio, Valimaki and Hamonic being injured.

They passed on Stone because they couldnt afford a 9.5M contract (probably more than $10M in Calgary). Stone doesn’t change the playoff result from last year.

In fact I suspect they talked to Stone and were confident we was going to sign elsewhere. Vegas is hard to compete with.

[bubbsy]

Meh, forbort looks good to me.

Gustafson sucks, so far at least.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

In fact I suspect they talked to Stone and were confident we was going to sign elsewhere. Vegas is hard to compete with.

I could definitely see that being true. By all accounts the Flames were deep in negotiations with the Sens the night before the deadline and couldn’t get the contract extension done. Similar to Hall I think they were willing to spend the assets of the assurance was there this player would be a long term fit

[djsFlames]

Hard to tell with these two acquisitions yet, but they've been less frightening to watch than when Kylington was out there having one of his off nights.

One thing I will say is our third pairing is much, much more solid than it was a couple weeks ago, which was probably necessary to giving them a good opportunity to capitalize on this stretch drive.

[scobel]

I just seen this thread pop up and in my head read Gustafson and Forbot done for the season, had a mini heart attack, until I realized I had read it wrong.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Inferno

Wasn't the reason Kulak was moved was because Valimaki beat him out and Treliving didn't want to bury him in the minors?

No, it's because the majority of players that head to arbitration are traded shortly afterward.

The Flames offered Kulak the same deal he signed as a rookie, 650k, 2-way deal.

He went to arbitration and was awarded a 1 way deal at 900k.

Here's some threads on what was happening at the time:

Kulak arb numbers. Kulak asking for $1.15M. Flames countering with 2 way $650k
Arbitrator awards Kulak 1yr $900k 1 way
Kulak to the Habs for Rinat Valiev and Matt Taormina
Habs sign Kulak (3 yrs, $1.85 mil AAV)
The Athletic - The Brett Kulak miscalculation

[1Nite]

Did Forbort replace Regher, in LA? He has looked good, big guy doesn't smash heads, but still can move players, and was seen good enough to be a 1st rounder. Gustaffson not to impressive, he is suppose to be the offensive guy but I think Forbort is out shooting him 6 to 2.

[GioforPM]

So because “most” players who go to ATB are traded (citation needed) it means that’s why Treliving did it? I bet Treliving would be perfectly happy to keep a guy after arbitration, assuming he liked the result.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Hard to tell with these two acquisitions yet, but they've been less frightening to watch than when Kylington was out there having one of his off nights.

One thing I will say is our third pairing is much, much more solid than it was a couple weeks ago, which was probably necessary to giving them a good opportunity to capitalize on this stretch drive.

I know some fans really like Kylington but when you have mediocre goaltending like the Flames his gaffes are hard to swallow. He's only 22 years old so too early to write him off but IMO clearly not ready to take a regular shift in the NHL. The bottom pairing does look as stable as it has in a long time and that's really something this team needed for some time as team defense hasn't been great this season.

[rohara66]

Watching Gustafsson play last night and he is 100% a rover out there. Lots of pinches (some terrible) and he broke the d-zone too early one time (WTF, he's a defenceman!). Still not sure about him.



Forbort look pretty solid. Definitely not going to see him sniping any goals but looks good in his own end.