NBA (and Raptors) 2023 Offseason

[octothorp]

With the Denver Nuggets winning their first ever title, the 2022-23 season is over, and basketball fans can look forward to the drama of another offseason.

Key dates:

• June 24th - NBA draft
• July 1st - Free agency opens up (contracts cannot be signed until end of moratorium), new CBA takes effect
• July 6th - end of moratorium
• July 7-17th - Las Vegas Summer League
• August 25th - September 10th - Fiba World Cup
• October 24th - NBA Season begins

A few key plotlines

• What will the Morant suspension be?
• Who will go 2nd in the NBA draft?
• Will Lillard stay in Portland?
• What will James Harden do?
• Will Irving commit long-term to Dallas?
• Will the Raptors retool or rebuild? Bulls and Wizards face similar dilemmas.
• How do the Lakers manage their tough roster situation?
• Will Phoenix move on from Paul and/or Ayton?
• Will the Warriors and Clippers remain deeply over the tax, or will the threat of harsher penalties have them starting to shed salary this year?
• Will Boston give Jaylen Brown a supermax contract?

As always, there will no doubt be totally unexpected stories that end up playing a huge role in the way the offseason shakes out.

Raptors focus:

• Three major free agents, in Poeltl, FVV, and GTJ Poeltl seems likely to stay but the others are huge questionmarks.
• Siakam and OG's trade value: if the Raptors want to be a seller, they'll definitely have buyers... but will those buyers meet Ujiri's likely steep price?
• The draft: Raptors have a number of interesting guard options at #13, or someone like Coulibaly or Leonard Miller who look like classic Raptors picks.
• Will the Raptors acquire additional draft assets? A lot of the OG/Siakam rumours involve either moving up or acquiring additional draft assets: Portland, Houston, Indiana, Washington, and Dallas are all potential trading partners in these scenarios.
• What will the Raptors summer-league team look like? It wouldn't be surprising to see Darko Rajakovic coaching the team.
• Assistant coaching staff: currently, Raptors have only two assistant coaches on staff: Jim Sann and Rico Hines, and there are rumours of Hines following Nurse to Philly. Either way, it'll be a priority to rebuild what was once one of the top coaching staffs in the league but has bled coaching talent each of the last 4 years. A defensive expert would seem to be the top priority with Darko being more of an offensive specialist himself.
  

Team Canada focus:
We'll probably have a separate Team Canada / FIBA thread later in the summer, however, worth putting some of those questionmarks here. As they have the last couple years, there will probably be a Team Canada summit at Las Vegas during summer league:

• Will Jamal Murray suit up for Team Canada or take the summer off after a long playoff run?
• What international stars opt in/out?
• What will the relationship between Team Canada and Nurse be like now that he's not with the Raptors?
• Team Canada has a list of 14 players who have made 3-year commitments to the program (this is year 2 of 3). How much will Team Canada weigh previous commitments in selecting the team?
• With several players on that list who are free agents (Brooks the biggest name amongst them), will those contracts get settled in time for full participation this summer?
• Will Team Canada get commitments from any of last year's three excellent rookies, Mathurin, Nembhard, and Sharpe?
• Where will the Canadians (Leonard Miller, OMP) get drafted this year?

[octothorp]

nm

[octothorp]

Raptors coaching staff development today: Darko got two assistants today, Jamal Mahalela and Pat Delany. Raptors fans might remember Jamal as an extremely successful G-league coach for the 905, who was then poached by Golden State. Delaney's a long-time assistant around the league who's known for his defensive chops.

Getting Mahalela back is a really nice acquisition; he went from development guru to bench manager under Kerr in Golden State. Darko has said he envisions having a small assistant-coaching staff, but there will probably be at least a couple more hires.


I'm trying to read the tea-leaves of things Darko has said, as well as moves like this, and really I've got no idea which way they're learning in terms of rebuild vs. retool. My gut feeling is it's still going to take an overpay for a team to get either Siakam or OG.

[bluejays]

I have no idea where Masai will go this off-season, but I don't have much hope at the moment. The decisions the team has made since winning the championship have been mediocre at best. The Barnes pick was right but what occurred last year was a terrible step back. I really do believe they have to sell on past has-beens like Fred for starters, and look to maximize their returns for one of Siakam or OG. Would be nice to get a team to overpay for one of them but I'd hate to keep them just because we'd be waiting on an overpay. Anyway, getting rid of one for picks allows us to tank this year, get a young player or two then build around Barnes and new guy. Trying to win with just a bench is a failed endeavor. If they come in with a similar lineup as the past few years I won't tune in. Fans are surprisingly pretty aware of what a bad team they were and I imagine many would be in the same boat.

[mile]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1669719599049211904

[Paulie Walnuts]

Lol thats it? Silver made it seem like the hammer was coming.

[bluejays]

I have to say, Silver hasn't had any teeth since starting the job. Players seem to say whatever they want and Silver stands behind them.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Sun's and Heat are the finalists for Bradley Beal.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Morant was never getting a season or anything like that. Silver and the owners surely had no appetite for a fight with the union over a precedent setting suspension for what would essentially be "conduct detrimental to the league". Without any actual criminal charges it was always going to be mild at best. As for Beal not any shock the Heat are there, but the Suns are gonna be running out Booker, Durant, Beal and 9 G-Leaguers, might be the most top heavy team ever with them already having a draft pick deficit and that likely getting bigger after this trade.

[mile]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1670529465691127811

https://twitter.com/user/status/1670529590467469319

[Senator Clay Davis]

I mean I definitely think Ayton is not even close to good enough to be on the contract he is, but how do you not get him back here? Even just getting him to flip him later is more valuable than second rounders, and those pick swaps better be until 2050 considering how few picks the Suns have.

[octothorp]

Saw someone point out that in 2025/26, Suns are currently slated to pay $198m just to Durant, Booker, Beal and Ayton. The current estimated luxury tax threshold that year (even factoring in massive new TV deal) is $190m.

By comparison, the Clippers were the most expensive roster in the league this year with $191m for their entire 15 player roster.

[bluejays]

Someone tell me if this is a good move for Phoenix? I've never thought highly of their core, including Booker.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Someone tell me if this is a good move for Phoenix? I've never thought highly of their core, including Booker.

Taken as just a snapshot of the roster right now, it looks really flawed. They were already thin in the playoffs and it really showed against Denver. While this move doesn't necessarily make them thinner, it does take away one of the few moves they had available to add depth.

I really think they've got an Ayton deal in the works to follow it up with. Ayton was already unhappy with his offensive role and now they've added one more high-touches iso player, and removed one of the few distributors from the roster... theoretically all they need from C is a guy who can defend against other big Cs. Trade Ayton for a more manageable package of three depth players (say, something like Nurkic, Little, and Knox, or Vucevic, White, and Caruso).

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

It's way too early to tell. I think they're an arrogant, front running group anyway, but leaving aside my personal dislike of the Suns core, there are three big questions.

First, who is bring the ball up the court? They now have three lethal scorers in Beal, Booker and KD, but who is orchestrating the offense? Cam Payne? I kind of doubt it. How successful this project is hinges on who they have in that role. Chris Paul was the right guy for the job probably but he couldn't stay healthy and cost too much so they now have to do it on the cheap.

Second, how are they filling out the rotation? They have no room. They're now spending about 165 million on 4 players, and KD in particular is injury prone. You cannot win without depth in general, but especially not in a conference that runs through Denver.

Third, what are they doing with Deandre Ayton? Is he getting traded? This may solve questions 1 and 2 if they do trade him, but his stock is not very high at the moment, so it also might not return the assets needed to do that job.

It's an all-in bet that still requires a lot of work to get to a point where it looks like a reasonable gamble, basically.

[mile]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1671207383304110083

https://twitter.com/user/status/1671207604465565696


I'm a fan of GTJ as a player and person, glad he's staying

[octothorp]

Yeah, a bit of a surprise, but great news for the Raptors. I believe now that he's opted in he'll be extension-eligible, and with the new CBA where extensions can be up to 140% of the current salary.

It's still hard to see how the money works with keeping the current core together longterm, but it'll be a lot more clear after the draft and the first few days of free agency. Despite the second tweet, I'm not convinced that there isn't still a trade for GTJ on the table this offseason.

[octothorp]

Looks like Porzingis is going to Boston for Brogdon, after a larger deal that saw Brogdon to the Clippers for filler fell apart. Injury-risk for injury-risk, but Porzingis is a higher-upside injury-risk, so I like it for Boston.
edit: and now it sounds like Brogdon's to Memphis with Tyus Jones to the Wizards.
edit: no! Smart to the Grizzlies!

I'm just going to stop editng until it's official.

[mile]

Boston gets Porzingis and two 1st-round picks?



I know they're late picks and Smart was a heart-and-soul guy, but Stevens did really well here IMO

[octothorp]

Yeah, those two first-rounders are huge for a team that is likely going to be going deep into the tax. They're already well over the tax even before negotiating Grant Williams' new contract, and next year they'll like have Brown on a supermax, and then the year after that a new supermax for Tatum as well. Draft picks are going to be even more valuable for contenders under the new CBA, as they're pretty-much the only way you can add better-than-minimum players to the roster once you're over the second apron.

Really curious about whether they negotiate an extension for Porzingis this summer... I have to think that was at least on the table to get a guy with a long injury history to pass up free agency after a surprisingly healthy season.

With speculation that Brogdon is much more seriously injured (and that being the reason that Clippers backed out), the other option is they could give up those draft picks to ship out Brogdon. Either way, they have some options.


I like it for Memphis too. They need a culture-changer more than they need more late FRPs. That defense is going to be elite.

For Washington... meh. New GMs get the luxury of taking losing deals to give themselves a clean slate, and that's what's going on in Washington right now.