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Old 02-25-2018, 03:19 PM   #1
CofR
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Following a fully successful Olympics which saw Canada win 29 medals (including 11 Gold), there are a lot of questions moving towards the games in Beijing.

What are people most looking forward to in the next Olympic cycle? There's plenty of returning Canadian athletes who will be defending Gold Medals, and lots of Canadian medalists who will not be returning.

Will the NHL return for the next games? How many medals from these games will be stripped due to doping?

Only 879 days until the Summer Games return in Tokyo!
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Old 02-25-2018, 03:56 PM   #2
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I'll be hoping for a return to form for our hockey and curling teams. Hopefully we'll have our bobsleigh tech figured out by then as well.
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Old 02-25-2018, 04:48 PM   #3
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I'll be hoping for a return to form for our hockey and curling teams. Hopefully we'll have our bobsleigh tech figured out by then as well.
I don't get the bobsleigh tech complaints.

We clearly have the best two man/women sleds based on World Cup and Olympic performance. Humpries just had bad runners for the first day. Saying her sled is slow given her World Cup results is ridiculous.

In the 4-man we are fourth and sixth behind the 3 German sleds

So the results in the Olympics were consistent with the World Cup standings. Spring just had a poor Olympics.

Our long track speed skating really needs improvement. This is a athelete conversion problem. As kids quit Hockey we need to funnel them into speed skating.
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Old 02-25-2018, 04:59 PM   #4
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I didn’t include it in the OP and I know it is super early in the year, but Mikael Kingsbury has to be the early favourite for the Lou Marsh Award his year. I’d actually be shocked if he doesn’t win it
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Old 02-25-2018, 05:18 PM   #5
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I'm looking forward to ski cross and snowboarding, those are exciting.
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Old 02-25-2018, 05:50 PM   #6
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It's more than just Humphries' first day that had issues - she bled time on runs 3 and 4 as well, though not as drastically. Kripps' 4-man team had the best starts and would lose time even before he made his driving errors. Even his 2-man team that won gold did the something similar on their last run - gained position at the top, lost time at the bottom. (Granted, that was on the same runners as Humpries' first day.)

For example, here are the rankings of the top 3 women's teams in (not at) each split.

Women - Germany 1
Run 1: 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2
Run 2: 5, 4, 2, 1, 4, 3
Run 3: 5, 4, 1, 1, 1, 2
Run 4: 5, 3, 1, 2, 1, 2

Women - USA 1
Run 1: 1, 1, 6, 7, 11, 9
Run 2: 1, 1, 17, 12, 9, 7
Run 3: 1, 1, 6, 8, 5, 5
Run 4: 1, 1, 6, 7, 11, 9

Women - Canada 1
Run 1: 2, 2, 6, 10, 13, 12
Run 2: 2, 2, 3, 12, 9, 11
Run 3: 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 6
Run 4: 3, 2, 2, 3, 4, 7

All things being equal, these numbers should not change. If you have the 2nd fastest start, you should be 2nd fastest in all segments of the track. If you make a driving error, you should fall in the segment where you made the error, and fall further in the next segment because now you're slow for a full segment instead of just a partial one, and then go back to being consistent. Maybe if you drive clean, you can expect to rise a bit in each segment, as other drivers make errors.

When you look at Humpries' last two runs, after the runner change, you see a gradual loss of rank over 4 segments. That either means that she was remarkably consistent in making a series of tiny errors, or that her sled has a disadvantage that gets heightened at higher speed. Given that the analyst thought she outdrove the field, and aerodynamic drag varies with the square of speed, I'm guessing that she had an aerodynamic disadvantage, at least compared to Germany and their exclusive sleds.
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Old 02-25-2018, 06:24 PM   #7
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You keep suggesting that German sleds are somehow ultra superior and that BCS uses inferior equipment.

This isn't 1988 anymore. Heck, it's not even 2010 when BCS was driving Eurotech sleds.
You'really also ignoring the last 3 or 4 years of World Cup and World Championship results.

Humphries isn't perfect, sometimes she doesn't win. She's the first to admit that. She didn't win at all last year, yet improved this year.
But to randomly suggest that aerodynamics is the issue is quite ignorant.

I don't recall Upperton stating that Humphries out drove the field, but even still, she's not in the sled this tear. She's watching monitors.
Perhaps Humphries just kept mistaking the best line to drive or just as likely, what the best rock her runners should have. Message her if you want the answer but I guarantee it won't be "I have a cheap non-German sled".
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Old 02-25-2018, 06:34 PM   #8
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I'm looking forward to ski cross and snowboarding, those are exciting.
FIS World Cup Events are on CBC next weekend! Menís and Womenís World Cup Ski Cross races at noon MST!
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Old 02-25-2018, 07:42 PM   #9
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Yea, Humphries was by far the best pilot during all 4 of her runs. No way she wouldn't have won Gold unless it was an equipment issue.
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Old 02-25-2018, 07:42 PM   #10
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Is there anywhere to find which Canadian athletes have confirmed whether or not they're returning next Olympics?
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Old 02-25-2018, 08:00 PM   #11
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It's more than just Humphries' first day that had issues - she bled time on runs 3 and 4 as well, though not as drastically. Kripps' 4-man team had the best starts and would lose time even before he made his driving errors. Even his 2-man team that won gold did the something similar on their last run - gained position at the top, lost time at the bottom. (Granted, that was on the same runners as Humpries' first day.)

For example, here are the rankings of the top 3 women's teams in (not at) each split.

Women - Germany 1
Run 1: 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2
Run 2: 5, 4, 2, 1, 4, 3
Run 3: 5, 4, 1, 1, 1, 2
Run 4: 5, 3, 1, 2, 1, 2

Women - USA 1
Run 1: 1, 1, 6, 7, 11, 9
Run 2: 1, 1, 17, 12, 9, 7
Run 3: 1, 1, 6, 8, 5, 5
Run 4: 1, 1, 6, 7, 11, 9

Women - Canada 1
Run 1: 2, 2, 6, 10, 13, 12
Run 2: 2, 2, 3, 12, 9, 11
Run 3: 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 6
Run 4: 3, 2, 2, 3, 4, 7

All things being equal, these numbers should not change. If you have the 2nd fastest start, you should be 2nd fastest in all segments of the track. If you make a driving error, you should fall in the segment where you made the error, and fall further in the next segment because now you're slow for a full segment instead of just a partial one, and then go back to being consistent. Maybe if you drive clean, you can expect to rise a bit in each segment, as other drivers make errors.

When you look at Humpries' last two runs, after the runner change, you see a gradual loss of rank over 4 segments. That either means that she was remarkably consistent in making a series of tiny errors, or that her sled has a disadvantage that gets heightened at higher speed. Given that the analyst thought she outdrove the field, and aerodynamic drag varies with the square of speed, I'm guessing that she had an aerodynamic disadvantage, at least compared to Germany and their exclusive sleds.
So you arguing that the Canadians are so much better at pushing and driving than the Germans that they are able to both win the World Cup despite a gap in equipment against a nation that is bigger and where bobsled is more popular.

Remarkably consistent at making tiny errors is how bobsled works in the top 4-5 sleds. It looks like her path into the uphill section of the track was not as clean as the Germans. How is she the World Cup Champion if she drove the best here and didn't win. That should translate across the season if it is an equipment problem.
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Old 02-25-2018, 08:28 PM   #12
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By the time Tokyo comes around we should know if Calgary is hosting, which is cool.
Looks like same tv partnership in Canada for the next 3 games which is good. Real shame that 1988 was a CTV event and didn’t get the CBC treatment. CBC is the standard and growing up watching calls from Whitman and Armitage etc, CBC does it the best.

How manny extra medals did Canada get over 2010 and 2014 because of the lack of many Russians? Relative because most of the ones not competing had doped but still.

Some new sports in 2020. 3 on 3 basketball. Skateboarding, surfing, sport climbing, squash and others. And more mixed male and female events like we saw with skiing.

Time change was tough to watch things live and brutal for sponsors to get viewership, but that’s the way it’s gong to for the next 6 years is Japan and China. And why the IOC is really going to want Calgary in 2026 and then Los Angeles after that.
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Old 02-25-2018, 08:46 PM   #13
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By the time Tokyo comes around we should know if Calgary is hosting, which is cool.
Looks like same tv partnership in Canada for the next 3 games which is good. Real shame that 1988 was a CTV event and didnít get the CBC treatment. CBC is the standard and growing up watching calls from Whitman and Armitage etc, CBC does it the best.

How manny extra medals did Canada get over 2010 and 2014 because of the lack of many Russians? Relative because most of the ones not competing had doped but still.

Some new sports in 2020. 3 on 3 basketball. Skateboarding, surfing, sport climbing, squash and others. And more mixed male and female events like we saw with skiing.

Time change was tough to watch things live and brutal for sponsors to get viewership, but thatís the way itís gong to for the next 6 years is Japan and China. And why the IOC is really going to want Calgary in 2026 and then Los Angeles after that.
I believe that CBCís deal with the IOC ends after 2024... If Calgary gets the games in 2026 Iím scared that CTV will push for the rights again like they did for Vancouver.
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Old 02-25-2018, 09:17 PM   #14
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I believe that CBCís deal with the IOC ends after 2024... If Calgary gets the games in 2026 Iím scared that CTV will push for the rights again like they did for Vancouver.
It's gonna happen. CTV/Bell only cares to have the rights if it's on home soil.

Would be nice to have CBC be the main broadcaster for home olympics, but that's a pipedream.
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Old 02-25-2018, 09:46 PM   #15
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Vancouver 2010 is what kicked off the great coverage we have now in terms of web access and multi channel broadcasting. Outside of the Montages Ill take Bell coverage.
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Old 02-25-2018, 09:53 PM   #16
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I don't recall Upperton stating that Humphries out drove the field, but even still, she's not in the sled this tear. She's watching monitors.
https://olympics.cbc.ca/news/article...bobsleigh.html

"Kaillie and Phylicia George [had] good starts. Great runs by Kaillie as always," she said. "I have to say, I think she outdrove the rest of the field. I think it's an equipment deficit that left [Humphries and George] off the top of the podium."


I guess she's ignorant too.

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So you arguing that the Canadians are so much better at pushing and driving than the Germans that they are able to both win the World Cup despite a gap in equipment against a nation that is bigger and where bobsled is more popular.
The start times aren't debatable at all.
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Old 02-26-2018, 12:52 AM   #17
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Yes.....you have her arguing my point.
At what part in that quote do you see "aerodynamic disadvantage"?
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Old 02-26-2018, 07:43 AM   #18
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https://olympics.cbc.ca/news/article...bobsleigh.html

"Kaillie and Phylicia George [had] good starts. Great runs by Kaillie as always," she said. "I have to say, I think she outdrove the rest of the field. I think it's an equipment deficit that left [Humphries and George] off the top of the podium."


I guess she's ignorant too.

The start times aren't debatable at all.

So why didn't they win the olympics if they consistently win the World Cup events despite inferior equipment?
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Old 02-26-2018, 09:17 AM   #19
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Yes.....you have her arguing my point.
At what part in that quote do you see "aerodynamic disadvantage"?
So we're agreed that it's equipment now? That she did outdrive the field? If you're arguing that the equipment issue was with the runners, I can accept that. But it would have to be for all four runs, because while the last two runs were better there was still an issue there. And it appears to have been an issue for the other Canadian teams as well.

I don't see why you're so quick to dismiss aerodynamics though. It should be the first thing that comes to mind when you see poor performance at the bottom of the track, because, again, drag varies with the square of speed. Friction varies with weight, so if it's a friction issue you should see poor performance in the flatter track sections.

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So why didn't they win the olympics if they consistently win the World Cup events despite inferior equipment?
They did not consistently win World Cup events. They won the overall world cup standings.

In two-man, Kripps had only one gold - fewer than Friedrich (who struggled on the North American tracks) and Walther. Kripps won the overall by being more consistent, but the Germans spiked for more wins.

In four-man, no golds at all. We also placed fourth. Kripps' driving doesn't translate here, despite, if it's like the Olympics, more advantage in the starts. Lochner, who sucks in two-man, dominated this circuit. Top three sleds are German. It's a bit of a mystery to me why this does not match the two-man results better.

Humphries had the most wins on the World Cup circuit. But her three golds were still matched Schnieder, who was inconsistent. Jamanka was quite consistent, but never at the top. That fits with good driving but start disadvantage. The Olympics were a pattern break here, so perhaps her advantage was something the Germans did on the day.
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Old 02-26-2018, 09:47 AM   #20
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The equipment deficit is a reality, the Germans spends millions on sled technology and have engineers from BMW and Mercedes working on ways to improve the sleds. Its all top secret and hush-hush as well.
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