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Old 02-16-2020, 01:45 PM   #1
FanIn80
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Default The Importance of Talent-Level Combinations

First, some definitions:

ETL (Elite Top-Line): "Generational talent"
TL (Top-Line): Top-Line player. "Legit #1F", if you will.
T6 (Top-Six): A second-line player that is good enough to fill in on the top line.
M6 (Middle-Six): A third-line player that is good enough to fill in on the second line.
B6 (Bottom-Six): Third and fourth line players that are not good enough to fill in on the second line.

My contention is that there are only certain combinations that can reliably produce wins over an extended (measurable) period of time. I also believe that higher talent can compensate for larger combinational gaps than lesser talents can. For example, my belief is that an ETL can produce better results with two M6s than two T6s can with one M6.

Top-six combinations that have won the last three Cups:

Pittsburgh
L1: ETL, M6, M6 (Crosby, Sheary, Guentzel)
L2: TL, T6, B6 (Malkin, Kessel, Hornqvist)

Washington
L1: ETL, TL, TL (Ovechkin, Kuznetzov, Backstrom)
L2: T6, M6, M6 (Oshie, Eller, Wilson)

St, Louis
L1: TL, TL, T6 (O'Riley, Tarasenko, Perron)
L2: T6, T6, M6 (Schenn, Bozak, Schwartz)

Now look at Calgary's roster, and see if we can put anything together comes close to matching any of the three combinations that have won the last three Cups.

TLs
Tkachuk

T6s
Gaudreau
Monahan
Lindholm

M6s
Backlund
Mangiapane
Ryan

B6s
Bennett
Dube
Jankowski
Lucic
Rieder
Rinaldo

So now that brings us to Defence:

ETP (Elite Top-Pair): "Generational Talent" (for Defence)
TP (Top-Pair): A top-pairing defenceman
T4 (Top-4): Second-pairing defenceman who can fill in on the top pairing
B4 (Bottom-4): Third-paring defenceman who can fill in on the second pairing
BP (Bottom-Pair): A bottom-pairing defenceman

My contention is that you don't just need good defence, you need good defence that can transition to good offence (either on their own or by getting the puck up to the forwards). Shot-blockers and zone-clearers are not T4 roles anymore.

Top-four combinations of the last three Cup winners:

Pittsburgh
P1: ETP, B4 (Letang, Hainsey)
P2: T4, T4 (Dumoulin, Schultz)

Washington
P1: ETP, T4 (Carlson, Orlov)
P2: B4, BP (Niskanen, Orpik)

St. Louis
P1: TP, T4 (Pietrangelo, Parayko)
P2: T4, T4 (Bouwmeester, Dunn)

Calgary's roster, for comparison

TPs
Giordano

T4s
Andersson
Brodie
Hanifin

B4s
Hamonic
Kylington

BP
Stone


--------------------------------------------------------------

The point: Talent-Level Combinations should matter when determining value.

For instance, someone might look at an M6 and think there's no trade value there... but an M6 can win a Cup on the top line on the right team. It's all about maximizing combinations.

If a team wants to win, they should't care too much about judging value inside a vacuum. If you look at Hamonic on his own, he's a solid bottom-pair defensive defenceman who can fill in on the second pair. Not a lot of value when trying to upgrade your top-six forwards. But... on a team with the right Talent-Level Combinations, Hamonic can be the piece you need to win a Cup, which makes him much more valuable to that team.

It works the other way, too. People like to think Backlund is too valuable to move, but are they looking at him in a vacuum? Backlund is a great two-way third-line forward that can fill in on the second-line. Sounds pretty good, but we're a team that 1) isn't deep enough to play him on the third line, and 2) doesn't have high enough Talent Level players to make him a full-time second-line player.

And that's my point. It's not just about individual talent. It's about the combinations you can make with those talents.

I look at this team's roster and I can see we can't possibly come up with a top-six combination that can win a Cup. So what do we do? We have the D combinations that can win, but if we dip into that to boost our top-six, aren't we just selling our hair to buy a brush?

I think I've blown past my point now, and I'm starting to get into other areas that this topic isn't really about, so I'll stop there... but I would be interested in reading what people think about all of this.

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Old 02-16-2020, 02:15 PM   #2
Enoch Root
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lol

Perron: TL

Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm: T6

stopped reading after seeing those assessments
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Old 02-16-2020, 02:21 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root View Post
lol

Perron: TL

Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm: T6

stopped reading after seeing those assessments
Whoops. Perron and Schwartz were supposed to be T6 and M6 respectively.

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Old 02-16-2020, 02:32 PM   #4
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That makes more sense.

But how do you not think that any of those Flames are TLs
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Old 02-16-2020, 02:55 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FanIn80 View Post
First, some definitions:

ETL (Elite Top-Line): "Generational talent"
TL (Top-Line): Top-Line player. "Legit #1F", if you will.
T6 (Top-Six): A second-line player that is good enough to fill in on the top line.
M6 (Middle-Six): A third-line player that is good enough to fill in on the second line.
B6 (Bottom-Six): Third and fourth line players that are not good enough to fill in on the second line.

...

Now look at Calgary's roster, and see if we can put anything together comes close to matching any of the three combinations that have won the last three Cups.

TLs
Tkachuk

T6s
Gaudreau
Monahan
Lindholm

M6s
Backlund
Mangiapane
Ryan

B6s
Bennett
Dube
Jankowski
Lucic
Rieder
Rinaldo
I get what your saying, but I think you're being overly harsh on the assessment of the Flames. If Tkachuk is a TL, then so are Gaudreau and Lindholm. Especially Gaudreau. He's not having a good season by his standards, but he's still likely gonna put up at least 65 points or so.

The point your trying to make I think, is that the Flames lack enough T6 talent overall. There's not a ETL to bring up a line by themselves season in, season out, and there's not enough TLs/T6s to compensate. The only player I would put in the T6 category is Monahan. Managipani may also be the only player in the M6. Backlund is moreso B6 these days, despite his hot streak right now. So overall, there's not enough offensive talent from the middle six and up on the roster based on the stats.

It's possible though that there actually could be some more middle six talent on the roster, but coaching isn't tapping in to it. Players like Dube and even Bennett could be players within that role, but they need to get placed into more offensive situations, by having PP time, and offensive oriented linemates. Dube at least has been getting PP time now due to the injuries that have occured.
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Old 02-16-2020, 03:28 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root View Post
That makes more sense.

But how do you not think that any of those Flames are TLs
An ETL can elevate M6s to TLs and B6s to T6s.
A TL can elevate T6s to TLs and M6s to T6s.
A T6 can elevate B6s to M6s.

It works in reverse too. An M6 devalues an ETL to a TL, etc etc.

In combination form, 3 T6s can look like 3TLs, but when split up, how do they impact lesser players?

The goal is to have the equivalent of:

L1: TL, TL, TL
L2: T6, T6, T6

The three Cups have been won by:

ETL, M6, M6 (equates to TL, TL, TL)
TL, T6, B6 (equates to T6, T6, T6)

ETL, TL, TL (equates to ETL, TL, TL)
T6, M6, M6 (equates to T6, T6, T6*)

TL, TL, T6 (equates to TL, TL, TL)
T6, T6, M6 (equates to T6, T6, T6*)

I've put asterisks on Washington and St. Louis' second lines, because I wanted to point out that over-talent on one line impacts the other line because of quality of defence assignments. In Washington's case, having an ETL with two TLs requires enough defensive attention to allow for M6s on the second line to become T6s all on their own.

I'm working this out as I go along, but it just hit me to use math...

Let's say you need a numerical line-value like this:

L1: 9pts
L2: 6pts

And then, let's say that Talent Levels are worth the following:

ETL: 6pts
TL: 3pts
T6: 2pts
M6: 1pt

Pittsburgh:
L1: ETL becomes a TL in the process of elevating M6s into TLs, so that's 3*3pts= 9pts.
L2: TL becomes a T6 while turning an M6 into a T6, so that's 3*2 = 6pts.

Washington:
L1: An ETL stays an ETL when playing with TLs, so that's 6 + 3*2 = 12pts
L2: 2 M6s bring a T6 down to an M6, but there's 3pts left over from L1, so thats' 3 + 3*1 = 6pts.

St. Louis:
L1: 2 TLs can turn a T6 into a TL without a penalty, so that 3*3 = 9pts.
L2: 2 T6s can turn an M6 into a T6 without penalty, so that's 3*2 = 6pts.
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Old 02-16-2020, 03:35 PM   #7
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I might need you to draw this out on a whiteboard for me.



Surprised I found a SFW version.
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Old 02-16-2020, 03:38 PM   #8
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I'm not sure if middle-out or dick-to-floor are applicable here, but I'm on board with what you're getting at.
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Old 02-16-2020, 03:42 PM   #9
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Bonino is a centre.
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Old 02-16-2020, 03:45 PM   #10
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More important than individual skill level is chemistry that linemates have with each other. Many examples of lines being very productive even though a player on that line could be argued to be less talented than a guy playing behind him in the lineup.
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Old 02-16-2020, 03:54 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cam_wmh View Post
Bonino is a centre.
Yes, he is! I had Pittsburgh's D completely messed up. Fixed now though. Also, Letang was injured in the playoffs, so Cole got promoted even though he was BP in the regular season...

I really only added the D in at the last minute. This was only supposed to be about forwards, but I was curious to see what would happen if applied to defence too.
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Old 02-16-2020, 06:51 PM   #12
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I agree with the logic. Flames lack the high end talent. We basically have 4 good players but none are stars. They also lack other skills to make up for it. Tkachuk and Monahan aren't very fast. Gaudreau is small. Monahan isnt a playmaker. Lindholm is the most complete but I'd say hes a top 6. Not sure if he's a true first liner. A very good compliment but dont think he can carry a line.
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Old 02-16-2020, 07:31 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hackey View Post
I agree with the logic. Flames lack the high end talent. We basically have 4 good players but none are stars. They also lack other skills to make up for it. Tkachuk and Monahan aren't very fast. Gaudreau is small. Monahan isnt a playmaker. Lindholm is the most complete but I'd say hes a top 6. Not sure if he's a true first liner. A very good compliment but dont think he can carry a line.
This is bang on. I'd even say all 4 are really good. But none are 'great'. They are all tweeners between TL and T6.

I think both Tkachuk and Lindholm have the potential to be 'great'. IMO the problem is that this team is built around Johnny as an 'ETL', when it simply isn't true. We need to refocus around MT and Zebulon.
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Old 02-16-2020, 07:43 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FanIn80 View Post
I'm not sure if middle-out or dick-to-floor are applicable here, but I'm on board with what you're getting at.
Well, teams are often built middle-out and higher dick-to-floor is often important unless you have the talent of a Gaudreau.
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Old 02-16-2020, 08:58 PM   #15
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So in a 31 team league, the guys who finished 7th, 23rd and 31st in league scoring last year are second liners that are good enough to fill in on a top line?

Sorry man. It’s tough to take this seriously if those are the working assumptions
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Old 02-16-2020, 09:01 PM   #16
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For anyone who finds interest in various posting habits... I corrected the typos I made on Perron and Schwartz (from using the template I created) half an hour after I created the thread, after seeing Enoch Root's response.

Spoiler!


At that time only GranteedEV had thanked Enoch's post, which means that literally every other thanks (besides his) on that post is from someone who popped in, saw a wall of text, thanked the first response and then left. The best part is that literally the very next post mentions that the typos have been corrected.

Anyway, I always find stuff like this interesting.

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Old 02-16-2020, 09:05 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
So in a 31 team league, the guys who finished 7th, 23rd and 31st in league scoring last year are second liners that are good enough to fill in on a top line?

Sorry man. It’s tough to take this seriously if those are the working assumptions
Read Post#6 and try to look at this objectively in the context of winning a Cup, not dominating the first half of a regular season. Each of those three players are perfect examples of players who are able to fill in on the top line, but cannot on their own carry a top line and elevate lesser players to top-line quality.

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Old 02-16-2020, 09:10 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FanIn80 View Post
Read Post#6 and try to look at this objectively in the context of winning a Cup, not dominating the first half of a regular season. Each of those three players are perfect examples of players who are able to fill in on the top line, but cannot on their own carry a top line and elevate lesser players to top-line quality.

I see what you are trying to do. Just think you undervalue the local talent.

I’d be interested to see how your system would work in assessing and ranking all of the teams in the NHL
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Old 02-16-2020, 09:45 PM   #19
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Just because I've just realized I didn't actually do this part yet...

Flames (using my values)
L1: T6, T6, T6 (Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm)
L2: TL, M6, M6 (Tkachuk, Backlund, Mangiapane)

L1: Three T6s, so that's 3*2 = 6pts.
L2: TL becomes a T6 by elevating an M6 to a T6, so that's 2*2 + 1 = 5pts.

Flames (using different values)
L1: TL, T6, T6 (Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm)
L2: TL, M6, M6 (Tkachuk, Backlund, Mangiapane)

L1: TL elevates a T6 to TL, so that's 2*3 + 2 = 8pts.
L2: TL becomes a T6 by elevating an M6 to a T6, so that's 2*2 + 1 = 5pts.
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Old 02-17-2020, 11:15 AM   #20
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I think we have 4 TL's (Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm, and Tkachuk), but we do not have T6's to help them out. We lack the game breaking talent that others do.
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