The Energy Transition and technologies

[zamler]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

China will create epic numbers of disposable EV's using up scarce resources, but they will never make it here due to them having no reason to ship them out, and safety standards.

European brands(mostly German) are going to gradually replacing much of Tesla's market share. Brands like Fiat may provide some compact cheap EV's, but they will mostly be the domain of Europe. American and Japanese brands will occupy the middle ground. Most of these EV startups like Rivian aren't going to stay around. They'll either go bankrupt, or get bought by Ford and GM and get value engineered into boring-mobiles.


That's the Fuzz 15 year EV outlook.

I predict for the most part the opposite if this will happen. China will put a huge dent in U.S. auto maker sales and one if not more will go under and require another government bailout. Tesla will go on to be the worlds largest automaker and largest company on the planet.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by zamler

I predict for the most part the opposite if this will happen. China will put a huge dent in U.S. auto maker sales and one if not more will go under and require another government bailout. Tesla will go on to be the worlds largest automaker and largest company on the planet.

Yeah, I'm with fuzz on this. The cool kids are already salivating over the audi etron. Tesla won't be more trendy than it has been. Can't see the Chinese companies making much headroom in the U.S. or Europe. Their governments wouldn't let that happen. They could make a dent in emerging markets where price is king.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by chedder

Yeah, I'm with fuzz on this. The cool kids are already salivating over the audi etron.

Tesla sells more in a week than the E-Tron will sell this year.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by chedder

Yeah, I'm with fuzz on this. The cool kids are already salivating over the audi etron. Tesla won't be more trendy than it has been. Can't see the Chinese companies making much headroom in the U.S. or Europe. Their governments wouldn't let that happen. They could make a dent in emerging markets where price is king.

I dunno. We'll see soon as Chinese EV companies are starting to move into EU and the UK right now


https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...pe-2021-09-30/

https://europe.autonews.com/automake...ir-move-europe

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Aut...ce-competition


With the upcoming battery material crunch, China will control the production elsewhere as they own the supply chain. Governments will need to speed up EV adoption to hit GHG emission targets so they'll have little choice

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by zamler

Tesla sells more in a week than the E-Tron will sell this year.

I've heard about Tesla only being trendy for far too long to believe it anymore.


Trends:

[chedder]

Ford sold 4.2million vehicles and GM sold 6.8 million in 2020. Tesla sold half a million or 4.5% of the two giants number.

Global auto sales are around 64 million vehicles. Of that, Tesla is less than 1%. I know Tesla sales growth has been incredible. I just don't see them being anything but a niche, yes trendy, automaker. They definitely can be a profitable, trendsetting, technology leading company that will benefit the ev space in the future. Market cap currently has nothing to do with number of cars on the road.

I think very soon companies like VW and the American giants will be selling the lion's share of ev's and their luxury brands will start to chip into Tesla's dominance.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by chedder

Ford sold 4.2million vehicles and GM sold 6.8 million in 2020. Tesla sold half a million or 4.5% of the two giants number.

Global auto sales are around 64 million vehicles. Of that, Tesla is less than 1%. I know Tesla sales growth has been incredible. I just don't see them being anything but a niche, yes trendy, automaker. They definitely can be a profitable, trendsetting, technology leading company that will benefit the ev space in the future. Market cap currently has nothing to do with number of cars on the road.

I think very soon companies like VW and the American giants will be selling the lion's share of ev's and their luxury brands will start to chip into Tesla's dominance.

Well by end of year Tesla will have sold about 900,000 vehicles and probably more soon. Stellantis waited too long to get in the game and I predict they're waaaay behind by the end of the decade

VW has big plans to knock Tesla off the top of the EV market by selling 1 Million EV's by 2025. That ain't going to cut it as many analysts have Tesla pegged for 1.3M by next year (which is more than triple last years numbers). Demand isn't dropping for Tesla at all as they've been completely supply constrained their entire existence. When was the last time you saw a Tesla advertisement? 1.2 Million people gave Tesla $100 to put their name on a list to buy a Cybertruck. I'm not naive enough to believe that they'll all turn into orders, but the Ford lightning only has 130,000 reservations so I'm not sold that there's the same demand elsewhere.

If EVs don't take off like they look to, you'll be right. If they do, GM and Ford will be behind the curve a fair bit. GM only recently started investing in battery development and production and Ford is still looking for battery sources for future vehicles. Tesla owns most of their supply chain including much battery production and component sourcing. While that's still going to be a source of supply constrain, they'll be in a better position to weather it than the big boys who are still going to be relying on foreign vendors to supply them with batteries

[Azure]

Ford & GM are getting absolutely hammered right now with the supply chain being a disaster.

Tesla has been able to adapt and keep making more vehicles than they did last quarter. Each subsequent quarter that goes by where that is the case, the lead that Tesla has will be growing.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Azure

Ford & GM are getting absolutely hammered right now with the supply chain being a disaster.

Tesla has been able to adapt and keep making more vehicles than they did last quarter. Each subsequent quarter that goes by where that is the case, the lead that Tesla has will be growing.

A mature manufacturer does well by using just in time sourcing for all their parts to keep overhead low vs a newcomer who needs the security of their own supply chain to avoid being priced out of the market. Tesla integrated vertically not because Musk is a genius, but because there's no way to compete for parts with the big boys

[Street Pharmacist]

Non-EV content

UK to be 100% green electricity by 2035

Britain, which will host the COP26 climate summit next month, has committed to cut carbon emissions by 78% by 2035 in what Johnson says is the world's most ambitious climate change target which would put the country on track to become a net zero emissions producer by 2050.#read more

"Looking at the progress that we're making in wind power, where we lead the world now in offshore wind, looking at what we can do with other renewable sources, carbon capture and storage with hydrogen potentially, we think we can get to complete clean energy production by 2035," Johnson said in a broadcast interview.

"It will mean that for the first time the UK is not dependent on hydrocarbons, coming from overseas, with all the vagaries in hydrocarbon prices and the risks that poses for people's pockets and for the consumer.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/all...ys-2021-10-04/



Seems Britain is doubling down on getting of coal and gas. The skyrocketing gas costs are probably making this push poll even better

[Fuzz]

So they announced building a bunch of nuclear plants then? Or have they not looked across the water to Germany?

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

China will create epic numbers of disposable EV's using up scarce resources, but they will never make it here due to them having no reason to ship them out, and safety standards.

European brands(mostly German) are going to gradually replacing much of Tesla's market share. Brands like Fiat may provide some compact cheap EV's, but they will mostly be the domain of Europe. American and Japanese brands will occupy the middle ground. Most of these EV startups like Rivian aren't going to stay around. They'll either go bankrupt, or get bought by Ford and GM and get value engineered into boring-mobiles.


That's the Fuzz 15 year EV outlook.

What is China’s track record on designing complex consumer products? Are they still as cheap in the bad sense of the word or is that an old stereotype? Is the market there driven by quantity over quality? I have no knowledge or opinion here, just curious.

[Fuzz]

I don't think the quality is necessarily horrible, but they may not bother to build them to our safety standards. My point on that was that their own market will probably buy up whatever they can make, so they wouldn't bother creating export versions. And I didn't so mcuh mean brands like Polestar, more the other 100's of EV companies that have popped up.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Non-EV content

UK to be 100% green electricity by 2035



https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/all...ys-2021-10-04/



Seems Britain is doubling down on getting of coal and gas. The skyrocketing gas costs are probably making this push poll even better

Still have to figure out what to do when the wind don't blow.

There was less than 200 MW of wind on the grid in Alberta this afternoon. The pool price? $600/MW+

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

So they announced building a bunch of nuclear plants then? Or have they not looked across the water to Germany?

They finally at least they seem to be coming around to it:

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/20...nuclear-energy

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...nuclear-option

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Still have to figure out what to do when the wind don't blow.

There was less than 200 MW of wind on the grid in Alberta this afternoon. The pool price? $600/MW+

They're investing with Norway on an interconnection.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...or-2021-09-16/

[Street Pharmacist]

There's lots of info and tech development for decarbonizing the power and automotive industry. A couple of really hard ones are industrial processes and are equally important.



Steel making represents 7-9% of direct emissions as they use coal for both direct heat and for adding the carbon necessary to make steel from iron. One company has developed a scalable way to make carbon free steel:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottca...il-free-steel/



Another incredibly hard one is concrete. I'm not sure anyone really had a good solution here. There's concrete made from direct carbon capture but it's insanely expensive and the world needs cheap concrete. The emissions arise from 3 different parts of the process, fossil fuel heat to turn

Some possible solutions are using direct air capture and sequestration, using alternative ingredients, or using carbon absorbing microbes in the process. Most of these are not really scalable though as microbes don't absorb near enough, alternative ingredients mostly come from processes like steelmaking that also need to end, and there just isn't close to enough alternative ingredients for it to work. The other complicating factor is that much of the CO2 produced is from the concrete curing which it does where it's laid. How do you capture that? This one will be difficult but at least 30% could be abated by avoiding using fossil fuel heating at least. Let's hope someone smart figures this out soon
https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...limate-change/

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

They're investing with Norway on an interconnection.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...or-2021-09-16/

This is the stuff that makes the most sense. Seems like a ridiculous system to lock places into using coal/gas while other countries/provinces are able to churn out more clean power than they know what to do with.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Azure

Ford & GM are getting absolutely hammered right now with the supply chain being a disaster.

Tesla has been able to adapt and keep making more vehicles than they did last quarter. Each subsequent quarter that goes by where that is the case, the lead that Tesla has will be growing.

Is it just more a numbers game than anything else? I'm sure Telsa uses chips just like Ford and GM. Easier to get them in small quantities than huge quantities.

[DoubleF]

If I'm Elon Musk, I don't care about Tesla, the Boring company etc. long term. I'm more interested in SpaceX and the Hypertube etc.

Exit strategy wise, I'd sell Tesla and a bunch of these companies to the US automakers at a premium in the coming few years and offer them a olive branch to deal with Chinese pressures, but also an forward solution that also deletes a major competitor to them. Tesla can continue to grow and Musk can pocket some serious coin by selling Tesla at a premium to have funds for his vanity projects (a la Zip2 and Paypal).

Tesla is pumped full of funny accounting and the government subsidy stuff will end sooner or later. He's going to laugh all the way to the bank and wash his hands of this stuff. US automakers will still be profitable even with some of this stuff built in, but just not as profitable as one might believe vs the actual selling price of Tesla.