Real estate in Calgary - another bubble?

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by Johnny199r

For most it’s the lack of a forced savings plan. I doubt many people who rent invest a large % of their income in the stock market.

Maybe, but renting isn't the end of the world for anybody and there shouldn't be stigma attached to it, or a feeling of missing out on an important rite of passage.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

The obvious problem to re-zoning all that rural land around Toronto is you just do it for SFH, that then turn into more awful suburbs, creating more expensive traffic problems, and generally make the area even more miserable to exist in.

I mean, you're allowed to learn from past mistakes. Nobody is saying convert every acre of green zone into quarter acre lots with bungalows on them. I specifically said upzoning inside existing developed areas is also necessary. There isn't any particular reason you couldn't make green zone releases contingent on a minimum density in built form being achieved. Personally I think high rises on the outskirts would be a tough sell, but if you mixed rowhouses and low rises along with semi-detatched and detached housing stock you could achieve significant density and also really increase the supply of affordable family sized housing in the metro areas where Canadians most want to live.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I mean, you're allowed to learn from past mistakes. Nobody is saying convert every acre of green zone into quarter acre lots with bungalows on them. I specifically said upzoning inside existing developed areas is also necessary. There isn't any particular reason you couldn't make green zone releases contingent on a minimum density in built form being achieved. Personally I think high rises on the outskirts would be a tough sell, but if you mixed rowhouses and low rises along with semi-detatched and detached housing stock you could achieve significant density and also really increase the supply of affordable family sized housing in the metro areas where Canadians most want to live.

But you are still adding loads of people in a part of the country where infrastructure is already stretched. How many more lanes can you add to the 401? Maybe they expand transit, but it's not a cheap option.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1516065285425479682

[Johnny199r]

I think rates going up has slowed the market a bit, but it's going to take more rate raises to start getting some sanity back in the market.

I couldn't imagine being someone who bought a ridiculously expensive house in Ontario or B.C and leaving myself absolutely 0 wiggle room should a major life event occur (marriage breakdown, serious illness, job loss etc) with 0 ability to save for retirement or anything else, essentially being house poor, and then somehow planning on interest rates never going up. Yikes.

Canadians will do whatever they can to try to hold on to their properties, but if interest rates climb quite a bit over the new year, it will definitely have an effect on borrowers.

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by Yoho

https://twitter.com/user/status/1516065285425479682

Slowing where? I'm not listening to a podcast to find out. Anecdotally, I can't say it's slowing down here in Calgary. The only difference from early 2022 to now is less investors gobbling up properties with no conditions and over asking price. Prices are still way up from last year.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Johnny199r

I think rates going up has slowed the market a bit, but it's going to take more rate raises to start getting some sanity back in the market.

I couldn't imagine being someone who bought a ridiculously expensive house in Ontario or B.C and leaving myself absolutely 0 wiggle room should a major life event occur (marriage breakdown, serious illness, job loss etc) with 0 ability to save for retirement or anything else, essentially being house poor, and then somehow planning on interest rates never going up. Yikes.

Canadians will do whatever they can to try to hold on to their properties, but if interest rates climb quite a bit over the new year, it will definitely have an effect on borrowers.

People already had to qualify based on stress test rates, so most borrowers can handle some increase if push comes to shove.

The rate increases also don't immediately change payments for most people, even those on variable mortgages.

That's not to say some people don't stretch themselves too far, but the system is hopefully protected enough from it being a widespread issue.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1516431230123880462

[Jason14h]

The Herald is basically a homebuilder and real estate advertising paper, so I wouldn't take anything they publish as much more.

The deliberately don't give any March and Early April specific numbers, but rather lump into Q1. Well no kidding it's "continues to burn hot" if you include the previously hot months in your data

Here the data released today

“There is a pretty clear sense that the market is softening, as sales and price momentum did show signs of cooling,” Robert Kavcic, an economist at Bank of Montreal, said by email.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...sales-down-5-4

No surprise Herald trying to keep the housing FOMO going before people start to see declines sales and price softening.

Just pray inflation slows on the quick end of projections to slow raising interest rates

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

The Herald is basically a homebuilder and real estate advertising paper, so I wouldn't take anything they publish as much more.

The deliberately don't give any March and Early April specific numbers, but rather lump into Q1. Well no kidding it's "continues to burn hot" if you include the previously hot months in your data

Here the data released today

“There is a pretty clear sense that the market is softening, as sales and price momentum did show signs of cooling,” Robert Kavcic, an economist at Bank of Montreal, said by email.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...sales-down-5-4

No surprise Herald trying to keep the housing FOMO going before people start to see declines sales and price softening.

Just pray inflation slows on the quick end of projections to slow raising interest rates

Slowing sales don't necessarily mean the market is cooling. There's a massive supply shortage. The article you posted states:

National home sales fell 5.4% in March from the previous month, with new listings also declining by about the same amount,

If there aren't good affordable listings, people won't buy.

IMO interest rates won't affect what's going on in Calgary. You've got too many people from outside the city coming in with relatively large down payments. For them a couple extra percentage points on a $300k mortgage is pretty meaningless.

From what I can find, prices did fall a whopping 1% in March 2022, from the high in February, but this was after record increases:

https://wowa.ca/calgary-housing-market

[topfiverecords]

People that made huge gains in Toronto and Vancouver are coming here with cash and no mortgage. Interest rates don't matter to these people.

The investment rates on the other million they stashed away are though.

[Calgary14]

There are two houses for sale near me (south) that I would have expected to sell within a day back in February. They've been on the market for about 2 weeks so far and still unsold

[fundmark19]

Originally Posted by Calgary14

There are two houses for sale near me (south) that I would have expected to sell within a day back in February. They've been on the market for about 2 weeks so far and still unsold

Are they actually unsold though or just c/s and not updated on MLS. There is an appraiser shortage and backlog that is causing lots of financing condition delays.

[Mr.Coffee]

Close to putting our Lake Bonavista house on the market, will report back. If interested PM me!

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Close to putting our Lake Bonavista house on the market, will report back. If interested PM me!

So you’ve been quietly letting Sliver take all the Lake Bonavista ribbing all these years?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

So you’ve been quietly letting Sliver take all the Lake Bonavista ribbing all these years?

Probably just upset that he didn’t get invited to the Lake Bonevista Swingers Club.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Close to putting our Lake Bonavista house on the market, will report back. If interested PM me!

Congratulations on becoming a multi millionaire.

[CarlLester]

Originally Posted by GGG

Probably just upset that he didn’t get invited to the Lake Bonevista Swingers Club.

Nicely done!

[Jason14h]

Sounds like a 0.75% rate increase is on the table and probable for June 1st.

Get those rates locked in if you are shopping.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1521306439003820041