Enmax fixed vs. floating rates...

[RedHot25]

I've enjoyed this discussion, and I apologize in advance for simple/naive questions I have:

1) Its definitely an art, but in terms of locking in (I did), I can just as easily unlock myself from variable rates. At least once every 30 days with Enmax. So yes I could lose or win in 30 days, but I can play the price market if you will and watch and lock/unlock as I go along?

2) I can only speak from my experience with Enmax, but they add a fee onto the variable rate. I think its something like 99 cents per gigajoule or whatever. So, while floating may be lower - and this is coming from someone who has been on floating gas for something like 6-7 years now - I have to add that dollar to the rate in my considerations. So I think you can't discount that either?

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by RedHot25

I've enjoyed this discussion, and I apologize in advance for simple/naive questions I have:

1) Its definitely an art, but in terms of locking in (I did), I can just as easily unlock myself from variable rates. At least once every 30 days with Enmax. So yes I could lose or win in 30 days, but I can play the price market if you will and watch and lock/unlock as I go along?

2) I can only speak from my experience with Enmax, but they add a fee onto the variable rate. I think its something like 99 cents per gigajoule or whatever. So, while floating may be lower - and this is coming from someone who has been on floating gas for something like 6-7 years now - I have to add that dollar to the rate in my considerations. So I think you can't discount that either?

I'm not sure about (2) with enmax, but (1) is a big advantage.

If we have a super cold winter and gas goes to $8, locking in at $4 or less won't be an option anymore. But if we have a warm winter and the price goes down you can switch back to floating.

So while I agree its a 50/50 coin flip, I think its more like "heads I win, tails I don't lose."

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

...So while I agree its a 50/50 coin flip, I think its more like "heads I win, tails I don't lose ."

It almost seems like I have a horse in this race . I honestly don't, just enjoying the peaceful discussion.
I would correct your latter statement: "heads I win, tails I don't lose much." You will be losing for as long as you stay locked at a higher rate and remember to go back to market, which is a time-consuming nuisance and easily forgettable thing to do.

Originally Posted by bizaro86

...
If we have a super cold winter and gas goes to $8, locking in at $4 or less won't be an option anymore. But if we have a warm winter and the price goes down you can switch back to floating.
...

This is where the assumption is false. Super cold winter results in an increased demand for natural gas, yes. But it doesn't automatically result the supply prices to increase, because natural gas producers may have the production capacities increased in anticipation of the cold weather and now they have to get rid of their produced gas at whatever pries the market movers can sell it for. This is precisely why natural gas market is so wildly unpredictable.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by RedHot25

...
2) I can only speak from my experience with Enmax, but they add a fee onto the variable rate. I think its something like 99 cents per gigajoule or whatever. ...

ENMAX is not the most competitive provider in offering locked rates on gas. ATCO Energy is offering a locked rate of $3.79 +$6.99/month for 3 years plus $25 one-time credit if you call them directly to switch. This is the best rate today I beleive. And honestly, not a bad rate if you do wish to lock and forget about it. You will be paying ENMAX quite a bit more for a 3-yr plan.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

It almost seems like I have a horse in this race . I honestly don't, just enjoying the peaceful discussion.
I would correct your latter statement: "heads I win, tails I don't lose much." You will be losing for as long as you stay locked at a higher rate and remember to go back to market, which is a time-consuming nuisance and easily forgettable thing to do.


This is where the assumption is false. Super cold winter results in an increased demand for natural gas, yes. But it doesn't automatically result the supply prices to increase, because natural gas producers may have the production capacities increased in anticipation of the cold weather and now they have to get rid of their produced gas at whatever pries the market movers can sell it for. This is precisely why natural gas market is so wildly unpredictable.

Agreed "much" is a fair addition. I'm looking at it as very cheap insurance. At $3.79 I'm not paying much more right, and it is definitely possible for rates to spike this winter. If they do I win big, and if they don't the difference is very likely to be small enough that it isn't substantial.

That "and" didn't mean to imply that a cold winter will automatically lead to high prices, (ie, the sentence goes "cold winter and then high prices" not "cold winter therefore high prices"). A cold winter is a likely pre-condition for a price spike. I would comment that cold snaps generally aren't helpful for natural gas production due to hydrates, although obviously that's a transitory issue. Would you say there is a lot of spare natural gas production capacity at the moment? I wouldn't have thought so.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

...Would you say there is a lot of spare natural gas production capacity at the moment? ...

Who knows for sure, eh?

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

Who knows for sure, eh?

Indeed. I wouldn't guess there's tons given how unprofitable dry gas has been for the last many years (so why drill) but maybe some wells folks drilled for NGLs that came in as dry gas might be sitting.

[Ducay]

Most people I know also in the industry have locked in at ~$4. Of course no one knows where it is going, but what we do know for sure is the max downside is ~$1-$1.50 in the near term, where the potential downside is quite large if there is any interruption in production or demand spike due to a US east cost cold snap, etc.

Even just half a month in the winter at $12-15/GJ floting due to a demand spike far offsets the summer months overpaying $1/GJ. A no brainer

[mrkajz44]

I sort of view it like a call option. The downside is pretty fixed and relatively small (the floating rate can only go so low compared to the fixed rate), but the upside could be very large if the prices shoot up. A gamble for sure, but it seems like a good one?

[RedHot25]

Welp, https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/energy-p...onth-1.5644147

Default natural gas rates are set to soar by more than 30 per cent in November, says Direct Energy Regulated Services.

It says customers will see their rate increase from $4.079 per gigajoule to $5.328 per gigajoule.

[jayocal]

I'm moving from an apartment to a house next month. I'm currently with Enmax for electricity. Who should I contact for gas and water?

[Ironhorse]

Originally Posted by jayocal

I'm moving from an apartment to a house next month. I'm currently with Enmax for electricity. Who should I contact for gas and water?

I’d stick with Enmax for those also.

[sleepingmoose]

You don't really have a choice for water anyway - you'll get billed by Enmax on behalf of the City, regardless of who you go with for Gas and Electricity.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by jayocal

I'm moving from an apartment to a house next month. I'm currently with Enmax for electricity. Who should I contact for gas and water?

Water/sewer/garbage/compost/recycling are all billed by Enmax. You don't have a choice.

[REDVAN]

So I keep hearing that I need to be on fixed rates for this winter- I've been on the floating rates for gas and electricity for 12 years now.

I have an old Enmax EasyMAX plan that gives me $100 a year back in bill credits.

It's very tricky and confusing to know if you are getting a fair deal on floating or if the fixed is better... with all the administration, delivery, transmission, balancing pool allocation, rate riders, franchise fee (I live in Airdrie), Federal Carbon Tax, ATCO fixed charge, ATCO Variable charge.

My energy charge is roughly 30% of my total bill every month. So how can I compare to a fixed rate plan, if some of those mentioned additional charges will likely also change on a different plan?

Does anyone have some good tips? This seems as confusing as cable/internet/mobile contracts.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by REDVAN

So I keep hearing that I need to be on fixed rates for this winter- I've been on the floating rates for gas and electricity for 12 years now.

I have an old Enmax EasyMAX plan that gives me $100 a year back in bill credits.

It's very tricky and confusing to know if you are getting a fair deal on floating or if the fixed is better... with all the administration, delivery, transmission, balancing pool allocation, rate riders, franchise fee (I live in Airdrie), Federal Carbon Tax, ATCO fixed charge, ATCO Variable charge.

My energy charge is roughly 30% of my total bill every month. So how can I compare to a fixed rate plan, if some of those mentioned additional charges will likely also change on a different plan?

Does anyone have some good tips? This seems as confusing as cable/internet/mobile contracts.

I was in the exact same position. See here:
https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpo...&postcount=222


I just switched this week to fixed electric. I'm not convinced gas is going to go as high though, and it will probable be short term. The admin fee is 50c lower9I think) on our plan, and if you change, it goes to 99c. I figured over a year it's probably still better to stay floating for gas, but who knows.



Electricity makes sense to lock in today, because it's over 10c, and you can switch once a month.

[REDVAN]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I was in the exact same position. See here:
https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpo...&postcount=222


I just switched this week to fixed electric. I'm not convinced gas is going to go as high though, and it will probable be short term. The admin fee is 50c lower9I think) on our plan, and if you change, it goes to 99c. I figured over a year it's probably still better to stay floating for gas, but who knows.



Electricity makes sense to lock in today, because it's over 10c, and you can switch once a month.

Thanks! If nothing changes except the floating to fixed, then this is exactly what I want (and expected from them).

Looks like at the moment, both fixed rates are better. I will re-evaluate in the coming months.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I was in the exact same position. See here:
https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpo...&postcount=222


I just switched this week to fixed electric. I'm not convinced gas is going to go as high though, and it will probable be short term. The admin fee is 50c lower9I think) on our plan, and if you change, it goes to 99c. I figured over a year it's probably still better to stay floating for gas, but who knows.



Electricity makes sense to lock in today, because it's over 10c, and you can switch once a month.

I'm of the same mindset. I've actually been on fixed electricity for a long time as I like to keep that cost relatively predictable. We have a few things that can be considered power hogs like a deep freeze, second fridge, electric heating in the garage, AC so I like to think I am protecting myself against any sort of price shock with fixed electricity.

I like to think we are pretty efficient in terms of NG consumption so I'm not too concerned about NG price spikes.

[GGG]

It looks like October was about $4 and November is over $5.

I believe this does not include the .99 or .50 / GJ charges as well. (I could be wrong though)
https://www.auc.ab.ca/pages/current-rates-gas.aspx

So if you were on fixed you save about $1/GJ in October and $2.25 / GJ in November.

[Ruttiger]

We're with Direct Energy and for the last 9 years I've just been letting it auto-renew annually on their 1 Year Flex One Plan - monthly price is based on the market price of natural gas and electricity (we have both through them). The renewal date, which I missed, was October 20 and I'm worried about an impending spike in our bills over the coming months. The 3 and 5 year fixed rates offered were $3.89/GJ for NG and $7.29/kWH for electricity.

Am I buggered? Are they likely to be lenient if I call and ask to get on one of their fixed rate plans still? This stuff is so over my head I've honestly just avoided it for years!