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Old 10-11-2018, 07:00 AM   #141
Shazam
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The bond market has been on a 40 year bull run.
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Parrondo's Paradox:

In Game A, you lose $1 every time you play.
In Game B, you count how much money you have left. If it is an even number, you win $3. Otherwise you lose $5.

Begin with $100. If you play only Game A, you will lose all your money in 100 rounds. If you play only Game B, you will also lose all your money in 100 rounds.

However, play the games alternatively, starting with Game B, followed by A, then by B, and so on. You will steadily earn a total of $2 for every two games.
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Old 10-11-2018, 06:04 PM   #142
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My guy told me a couple of days ago to expect a 10% correction before the end of the year. They aren't expecting it'll be long but it'll freak out some investors.
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Old 10-12-2018, 07:23 AM   #143
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My guy told me a couple of days ago to expect a 10% correction before the end of the year. They aren't expecting it'll be long but it'll freak out some investors.
I don't want to take a shot at this guy, but the truth is they have no idea, because no one knows. Maybe they're right, but it's basically impossible to predict these shorter term moves with any certainty. I'm not even convinced that you (or I) could get the daily direction of the markets right if we gave it a shot at 7:25am each morning.

It's really not an attack on anyone, as it's the world we live in. Everyday the pundits tell us what happened and a reason why, but that's also a guess. Why did company ABC decline $25 this week when they have zero connection to China, won't be impacted by tariffs and there is no news? Well apparently it's that they anticipate rate increases, only those increases started months ago! It makes people feel better when they hear these things. The truth is we have these 10% pullbacks in the market more years than we don't, but that's about all we know. We don't know when with any reasonable foresight and don't know why (otherwise you would avoid them!). And while they take place more often than not, they don't always happen.
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Old 10-12-2018, 08:53 AM   #144
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Lots of people time the market, predict the market or otherwise beat the market in trading. I think you're getting mixed up with knowing what's going to happen ahead of time and reacting to what is happening. Trend lines are without question remarkably predictive. The trend line on the s&p chart starts on Donald Trump's first day on the job 2 years ago. It's no coincidence the market dropped exactly to the penny of that line. It was obvious to many people the market would bounce off of that line today. If it breaks down from that line it will be a bit of a tumble. You don't have to know if the whole Donald Trump effect is still in play or not. It might be but the narrative is much different than a year ago. Tax cuts and jobs are replaced with trade wars and debt. But the reality is we don''t have to know. We'll never be smarter than a hundred million traders. You just have to watch trend lines and react appropriately.



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Old 10-12-2018, 08:57 AM   #145
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Originally Posted by OMG!WTF! View Post
Lots of people time the market, predict the market or otherwise beat the market in trading. I think you're getting mixed up with knowing what's going to happen ahead of time and reacting to what is happening. Trend lines are without question remarkably predictive. The trend line on the s&p chart starts on Donald Trump's first day on the job 2 years ago. It's no coincidence the market dropped exactly to the penny of that line. It was obvious to many people the market would bounce off of that line today. If it breaks down from that line it will be a bit of a tumble. You don't have to know if the whole Donald Trump effect is still in play or not. It might be but the narrative is much different than a year ago. Tax cuts and jobs are replaced with trade wars and debt. But the reality is we don''t have to know. We'll never be smarter than a hundred million traders. You just have to watch trend lines and react appropriately.



Spoiler!
I think you're confusing my saying that you can't predict these things, with not being able to beat the market. I do think that you can do better than average, otherwise I wouldn't do what I do, but that doesn't mean that this weeks pullback was foreseeable,
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Old 10-12-2018, 11:23 AM   #146
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My guy told me a couple of days ago to expect a 10% correction before the end of the year. They aren't expecting it'll be long but it'll freak out some investors.
A 10% correction is zilch.

Did everybody forget Feb-Mar of this year?
__________________
Parrondo's Paradox:

In Game A, you lose $1 every time you play.
In Game B, you count how much money you have left. If it is an even number, you win $3. Otherwise you lose $5.

Begin with $100. If you play only Game A, you will lose all your money in 100 rounds. If you play only Game B, you will also lose all your money in 100 rounds.

However, play the games alternatively, starting with Game B, followed by A, then by B, and so on. You will steadily earn a total of $2 for every two games.
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Old 10-12-2018, 11:44 AM   #147
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Did everybody forget Feb-Mar of this year?
Yes.
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