You don't think Russia thought they'd just blast through Ukraine and people would surrender? Like what happened in Crimea?
No one is saying Russia isn't going to do what they want to do. But I think its fair to suggest they may not have expected resistance to be as strong as it is.
Russia have only moved in 1/3 of their troops this far. If anything, they have probably expected stronger resistance given how many troops they have amassed vs how many have been used this far:
NEW: Russia has put a third of the military forces it amassed on Ukraine's border into the country, per senior U.S. defense official.
Russia amassed up to 190,000 troops along the border, a top U.S. diplomat said earlier this month.
r/worldnews was terrible for this earlier today. You'd think a big comeback is happening. In reality, not the case other than a feel good story for free upvotes and anything to increase moral.
In my eyes Ukraine is gone. Only a matter of time. At this point it's how much bloodshed has to happen. The monster is there, and there to stay.
Just had a video call with my wife. Non stop shooting could be heard and she was whispering the whole time. Because they live so close to the border, Russian soldiers keep coming across the border, through the forested areas and into their village. They are trying to make their way to Kharkov. After stumbling into the village, they see the highway which is a couple minutes to the east, and off they go. She said it has been a steady stream of tanks all day and people coming thru the woods. Russian soldiers have taken over the road, saying it's now the tank highway and if "you want to live", turn around.
The look in her eyes...####. She can barely sleep, barely eat. Gunfire and yelling all around her. Would give anything to trade places with her.
Man...you guys are in my thoughts. This is absolutely devastating to hear. Thank you for sharing this with us; it is eye-opening to say the very least.
Very interesting article. Is this whole thing to remove themselves as much as possible from the import side of the global economy? I wonder if it's feasible for them to rely on a national economy augmented by energy exports. It's obviously not a viable long term strategy as you would think Russian energy will be replaced eventually.
I hate to rapid post and I'm probably wrong but I just don't see a real long term outlook that's positive for Russia. Still think there will be another shoe to drop at some point.
I think it helps to recognize the different circles of Russian society: Putin’s inner circle of state power; the next circle of wealthy Russians who reap much of the rewards from the economy and who are (for now) compliant with the regime because they’re vulnerable to state coercion; a small liberal class who have a more favourable view of the West; average Russian citizens.
The interests of these groups are not in alignment. Putin likely calculates that if he can keep the last group - the largest group by far - onside, then the others can pound sand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fotze
If this day gets you riled up, you obviously aren't numb to the disappointment yet to be a real fan.
Russia have only moved in 1/3 of their troops this far. If anything, they have probably expected stronger resistance given how many troops they have amassed vs how many have been used this far:
NEW: Russia has put a third of the military forces it amassed on Ukraine's border into the country, per senior U.S. defense official.
Russia amassed up to 190,000 troops along the border, a top U.S. diplomat said earlier this month.
Unless they have a terrible plan - I doubt they want this to have this drag out for any longer than needed.
The longer this goes - the worse for Russia. They will still over power Ukraine in short time no one is disputing that.
You don't think Russia thought they'd just blast through Ukraine and people would surrender? Like what happened in Crimea?
No one is saying Russia isn't going to do what they want to do. But I think its fair to suggest they may not have expected resistance to be as strong as it is.
I don’t know who was predicting a country the size of Ukraine with an armed forces of over 100k would fall in days.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fotze
If this day gets you riled up, you obviously aren't numb to the disappointment yet to be a real fan.
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I think it helps to recognize the different circles of Russian society: Putin’s inner circle of state power; the next circle of wealthy Russians who reap much of the rewards from the economy and who are (for now) compliant with the regime because they’re vulnerable to state coercion; a small liberal class who have a more favourable view of the West; average Russian citizens.
The interests of these groups are not in alignment. Putin likely calculates that if he can keep the last group - the largest group by far - onside, then the others can pound sand.
Average Russian citizens seems to be dumbfounded by this war. Considering how many if them have been in Ukraine or have Ukrainian coworkers, they are nonplussed about why Putin is bombing Kyiv. They also realize sanctions hit them hardest.
Curious about how many troops Russia has lost, some of the soldiers captured were just kids that seemingly thought they were apart of a training exercises until #### got real.
Curious about how many troops Russia has lost, some of the soldiers captured were just kids that seemingly thought they were apart of a training exercises until #### got real.
I've read some of those stories. I wonder if Putin is truly that sinister that he is throwing un-trained and dispensable young men to spearhead the invasion, and if they suffer mass casualties, he doesn't care. Once entrenched, he'll send in his valuable, trained, professional soldiers.
Russia said Sweden and Finland will "force Russia to put a response" if they try to join NATO. Next thing I read is that Germany is open to cut Russia from SWIFT.
I said this at the start, the Russian's are still using their playbook from the later part of WW2. They push everywhere and where they find trouble spots or weaknesses they bring in their reserves to crush it or pour past it.
Ukraine has fought really hard and inflicted casualties. But this is all about math at this point. The Ukrainian military will wear out, they don't have much in the way of reserves. They've been battered for 2 days. Even with Western resupply, it doesn't replace men, and that more then weapons effects moral. The Ukrainian Solidiers have to realize that their is no help coming, and they're about to see fresh Russian Troops and equipment.
Putin has to be emboldened, by the British Statement that they won't cross the line that Putin has set and won't commit troops, nor will America, nor will Germany or any other Nato member. Ukraine has to realize that they're alone, and its only a matter of time.
We can talk about an insurgency, and it will happen. But the Russian Military has a history and policy of brutal reprisals against civilians to deal with an insurgency. Add to that, Putin just won't care. I mean even the call for sanctions in the west was fractured. He knows that there won't be a no fly zone for example to protect civilians. He knows now that its going to be a matter of time until Ukraine's formal military resistance is no longer possible.
We have romantic thoughts of a coup or an assassination of Putin, but unless its his protective detail doing it (ie Indira Ghandi). That's not going to happen, he's well protected and the FSB is probably working overtime looking for disloyalty.
The Civilian protests won't get anywhere, this is Russia it has a history of brutally dealing with protests and uprisings.
I think the next step will be more sanctions, Putin really won't care. He's betting that he can take all of the Ukraine, and then go to a false diplomacy stage with the West and make some small concessions that he has no intentions of keeping.
All NATO can do is re-enforce its Eastern Flank, increase the size of troop deployments in places like Latvia and wait.
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My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
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I've read some of those stories. I wonder if Putin is truly that sinister that he is throwing un-trained and dispensable young men to spearhead the invasion, and if they suffer mass casualties, he doesn't care. Once entrenched, he'll send in his valuable, trained, professional soldiers.
that's the second wave that's moving now.
I mean they had older tanks and equipment on the first rush, its no surprise that 30+ tanks were killed, most of then were older T-72's. The next wave of the multiple fists that are moving will be the varsity.
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My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
I think it helps to recognize the different circles of Russian society: Putin’s inner circle of state power; the next circle of wealthy Russians who reap much of the rewards from the economy and who are (for now) compliant with the regime because they’re vulnerable to state coercion; a small liberal class who have a more favourable view of the West; average Russian citizens.
The interests of these groups are not in alignment. Putin likely calculates that if he can keep the last group - the largest group by far - onside, then the others can pound sand.
I always go back to this video when discussing autocrats
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Here's a US defense source stating what Pointman said about the 1/3 of troops and also that resistance has been tougher than expected. Again - we all know the end result, but that doesn't mean that the resistance hasn't been stronger than Russia expected.
It’s not clear how many of the Russian troops deployed against the Ukraine are conscripts. We get these reports of green conscripts blundering around in the advance, but analysis like this article say Russia has deployed largely experienced, professional soldiers.
Quote:
Although Ukraine’s armed forces have improved since the fighting of 2014-2015, so have Russia’s. The units surrounding Ukraine are largely staffed by contract soldiers—professional servicemen, rather than conscripts—with high levels of readiness, modernised equipment and officers bloodied in several conflicts, such as the war in Syria. Ukraine’s military is understaffed, poorly supplied, and inexperienced in manoeuvre warfare. Russian forces therefore have considerable quantitative and qualitative superiority.
like I said, they were always going to come around. It was just stalling, and while that can obviously be criticized, it does make sense to review all your options before making that call.
