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Old 05-09-2021, 07:50 PM   #3101
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I’m fairly confident that there was enough supply projected to be coming on line that you could reasonably assume that it wouldnt be an issue by June/July. It has more or less followed delivery projections, if not exceeded them. Also, had we locked down an extra 2 weeks in Feb we would have an extra 2 weeks to work with right now to start looking at implementing restrictions if we needed to du to supply lags.

Turns out vaccines came faster. So instead of looking like the province that did it right, we look like the North American hot spot/abject failure we are. And that’s on Kenney.
I would disagree with abject failure. When we rank countries by Covid deaths Alberta as a jurisdiction will be fine. Ontario is still at 30 deaths per day 7 day average, Quebec is over 40 deaths per day. Alberta is at 4. Population adjusted that is over double the death rate.

Looking at cases only doesn’t tell the full story.
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Old 05-09-2021, 07:51 PM   #3102
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It’s foolish though. We’re not doing nothing and haven’t taken that approach at anytime in the past year. It’s ridiculous to look and say “here’s what happens if we do nothing” when we’re already doing things. To want to base public policy on that kind of projection is not an approach I’d support.




Oh really? Did we hit 10k a day and I misread the numbers? I mean sure, you can criticize that you don’t like my views here, but that comment is just nonsense.

Is this really that dissimilar from the disclaimer of “past performance is not an indication of future results”. Why don’t my investments keep doing what they did before?

It seems obvious that the projections meant if no corrective actions were taken that would be the result. You just need to look at counties were they did absolutely nothing to see those numbers could have happened here.
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Old 05-09-2021, 08:05 PM   #3103
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I’m fairly confident that there was enough supply projected to be coming on line that you could reasonably assume that it wouldnt be an issue by June/July. It has more or less followed delivery projections, if not exceeded them. Also, had we locked down an extra 2 weeks in Feb we would have an extra 2 weeks to work with right now to start looking at implementing restrictions if we needed to du to supply lags.

Turns out vaccines came faster. So instead of looking like the province that did it right, we look like the North American hot spot/abject failure we are. And that’s on Kenney.
In hindsight they came faster. But at the time Pfizer was re-tooling in Europe and Moderna was having production problems. I think there was a real chance of the EU blockading exports until their own populace was vaccinated as well. That could have certainly delayed things a couple of months.

I'm thrilled it worked out, but it was nowhere near a slam dunk at the time, and it would have been risky to go all on on that.
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Old 05-09-2021, 08:05 PM   #3104
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Is this really that dissimilar from the disclaimer of “past performance is not an indication of future results”. Why don’t my investments keep doing what they did before?

It seems obvious that the projections meant if no corrective actions were taken that would be the result. You just need to look at counties were they did absolutely nothing to see those numbers could have happened here.
The idea of projections with no corrective actions or restrictions is just as ridiculous as people complaining about the “full lockdown”. Neither one is happening.
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Old 05-09-2021, 09:10 PM   #3105
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I would disagree with abject failure. When we rank countries by Covid deaths Alberta as a jurisdiction will be fine. Ontario is still at 30 deaths per day 7 day average, Quebec is over 40 deaths per day. Alberta is at 4. Population adjusted that is over double the death rate.

Looking at cases only doesn’t tell the full story.
Alberta has the massive advantage of having their outbreak occur after most vulnerable were already vaccinated.
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Old 05-09-2021, 09:15 PM   #3106
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Yeah I think I worded that poorly. I think we look a lot worse than we are at this moment in time, comparatively speaking. There have been far worse the last year.
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Old 05-09-2021, 10:04 PM   #3107
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Alberta has the massive advantage of having their outbreak occur after most vulnerable were already vaccinated.
You're making that sound like a bad thing. Keeping things relatively under control until the vulnerable population was vaccinated should be seen as a success.
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Old 05-09-2021, 10:25 PM   #3108
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Their death rate is lower because their vaccine rollout was successful is not the dunk you think it is.
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Old 05-09-2021, 10:38 PM   #3109
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Alberta has the massive advantage of having their outbreak occur after most vulnerable were already vaccinated.
I think there are a few things worth considering here

1) the Canadian government rolled out vaccine on a per capita basis and not an age adjusted per capita basis allowing Alberta’s advantages in demographics to allow them to vaccinate the vulnerable faster

2) Alberta vaccinated much fewer health care and other essential roles in the early role out stages relative to other provinces prioritizing age and those with health conditions.

3) The decision to double dose the elderly has offered greater protection but also slowed down vaccination so would lead to higher cases.

4) we were a fewer weeks behind on the variant spread than Ontario. (Could be the good work over Christmas)

I think the provincial government should get a lot of credit for delaying vaccines to essential workers and prioritizing by age and health condition. It appears to have worked better but would require a lot of analysis to take out the demographic affects.

I also think number 3 is interesting if the added protection of the elderly offset the increased spread by delaying first doses and the protection of an additional lower risk person.

Alberta also performed the best at Christmas out of any province which set in motion the ability of have the vulnerable vaccinated before this wave.
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Old 05-09-2021, 10:53 PM   #3110
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I think there are a few things worth considering here

1) the Canadian government rolled out vaccine on a per capita basis and not an age adjusted per capita basis allowing Alberta’s advantages in demographics to allow them to vaccinate the vulnerable faster

2) Alberta vaccinated much fewer health care and other essential roles in the early role out stages relative to other provinces prioritizing age and those with health conditions.

3) The decision to double dose the elderly has offered greater protection but also slowed down vaccination so would lead to higher cases.

4) we were a fewer weeks behind on the variant spread than Ontario. (Could be the good work over Christmas)

I think the provincial government should get a lot of credit for delaying vaccines to essential workers and prioritizing by age and health condition. It appears to have worked better but would require a lot of analysis to take out the demographic affects.

I also think number 3 is interesting if the added protection of the elderly offset the increased spread by delaying first doses and the protection of an additional lower risk person.

Alberta also performed the best at Christmas out of any province which set in motion the ability of have the vulnerable vaccinated before this wave.
Your objective reasoning is unwelcome.
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Old 05-09-2021, 11:10 PM   #3111
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We trade lives for money and convenience all the time, it’s just not talked about openly. Reducing speed limits across the board would save thousands of lives a year. Banning all gatherings of more than 20 people every flu season would save thousands of lives. Banning or punitively taxing unhealthy fast foods would save thousands of lives. Controlled crosswalks with lights are safer than basic painted crosswalks, but we only install them in high-traffic or high-collision locations because we don’t have infinite money in municipal budgets to pay for them.

So calculations and cost-benefit analysis are drawn up in obscure recesses of bureaucracies. Policies are formulated. And the line (or rather hundreds of lines) gets drawn somewhere. We can disagree on where those lines get drawn, but pretending it’s a matter of obvious and stark moral choice is unhelpful.
You're going off the assumption there was a tradeoff to be made here. Look at the best pandemic economies and the countries who were able to provide the greatest overall freedom.

It was a false dichotomy all along, so I reject the entire premise of your post.
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Old 05-09-2021, 11:28 PM   #3112
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I would disagree with abject failure. When we rank countries by Covid deaths Alberta as a jurisdiction will be fine. Ontario is still at 30 deaths per day 7 day average, Quebec is over 40 deaths per day. Alberta is at 4. Population adjusted that is over double the death rate.

Looking at cases only doesn’t tell the full story.
Just a correction, Quebec's 7-day average for deaths has ranged between 5-10 a day for the last couple of months, and is on the lower end of that right now. So fairly similar to Alberta's current rate (if not lower).
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Old 05-09-2021, 11:43 PM   #3113
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The idea of projections with no corrective actions or restrictions is just as ridiculous as people complaining about the “full lockdown”. Neither one is happening.
I’m still not even sure what you’re saying here, you seem to have some odd hang ups about projections.

I’m also still trying to figure out where your doubts come in regarding the benefits of a true lockdown back in Feb, considering we’ve also had this conversation before.
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Old 05-10-2021, 06:10 AM   #3114
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I’m still not even sure what you’re saying here, you seem to have some odd hang ups about projections.

I’m also still trying to figure out where your doubts come in regarding the benefits of a true lockdown back in Feb, considering we’ve also had this conversation before.
It’s because people point to those projections as a basis for public policy now.
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Old 05-10-2021, 06:19 AM   #3115
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It’s because people point to those projections as a basis for public policy now.
What would you have them base that policy on? Guesses? A dart board with options?

It’s a tool. Just because it’s shown in the media doesn’t mean the entire population sees that and thinks the world is over. It’s a tool.
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Old 05-10-2021, 07:50 AM   #3116
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Just a correction, Quebec's 7-day average for deaths has ranged between 5-10 a day for the last couple of months, and is on the lower end of that right now. So fairly similar to Alberta's current rate (if not lower).
Thanks I was just looking at the Google charts. Looking at it again Quebec doesn’t have a detailed breakdown like Ontario and Alberta do so it defaults back to Canada.

Last edited by GGG; 05-10-2021 at 07:52 AM.
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Old 05-10-2021, 08:43 AM   #3117
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I think there are a few things worth considering here

1) the Canadian government rolled out vaccine on a per capita basis and not an age adjusted per capita basis allowing Alberta’s advantages in demographics to allow them to vaccinate the vulnerable faster

2) Alberta vaccinated much fewer health care and other essential roles in the early role out stages relative to other provinces prioritizing age and those with health conditions.

3) The decision to double dose the elderly has offered greater protection but also slowed down vaccination so would lead to higher cases.

4) we were a fewer weeks behind on the variant spread than Ontario. (Could be the good work over Christmas)

I think the provincial government should get a lot of credit for delaying vaccines to essential workers and prioritizing by age and health condition. It appears to have worked better but would require a lot of analysis to take out the demographic affects.

I also think number 3 is interesting if the added protection of the elderly offset the increased spread by delaying first doses and the protection of an additional lower risk person.

Alberta also performed the best at Christmas out of any province which set in motion the ability of have the vulnerable vaccinated before this wave.
One quick note about point 3.

When they first opened up vaccine booking you booked both shots at the same time. This was for people 75+ Then a few days, or a week later they learned and/or decided that they would change the wait time from 1 month to 4 months between 1st and 2nd doses, but they honored the 2nd doses booked for the 75+ age group who had already booked.

So if the 75+ booked already they were lucky to receive both doses so quickly. It wasn't so much a good decision to book them two doses right away as it was lucky timing for those who were able to get both booked before Alberta changed the way they vaccine.
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Old 05-10-2021, 09:44 AM   #3118
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One quick note about point 3.

When they first opened up vaccine booking you booked both shots at the same time. This was for people 75+ Then a few days, or a week later they learned and/or decided that they would change the wait time from 1 month to 4 months between 1st and 2nd doses, but they honored the 2nd doses booked for the 75+ age group who had already booked.

So if the 75+ booked already they were lucky to receive both doses so quickly. It wasn't so much a good decision to book them two doses right away as it was lucky timing for those who were able to get both booked before Alberta changed the way they vaccine.
Part of this was we had the best (still not great, but better than other provinces) online booking system at the start of the vaccination drive.
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Old 05-10-2021, 09:56 AM   #3119
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Part of this was we had the best (still not great, but better than other provinces) online booking system at the start of the vaccination drive.
Only if you could follow instructions on how to hack javascript code in your browsner.
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Old 05-10-2021, 10:07 AM   #3120
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Part of this was we had the best (still not great, but better than other provinces) online booking system at the start of the vaccination drive.
Best part of our system is the ability to actually choose when your appointment is. Many other provinces informed you of when it was - they chose for you. Time and location.
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