[Trade] Elias Lindholm + Noah Hanifin to Flames for D. Hamilton, Micheal Ferland, & Adam Fox

[Geeoff]

Small sample size but Lindholm is a monster. Seems like Monahan fused with Backlund.

If he keeps this level of play, we don't even need Hanifin to score as much as Hamilton to get a good return on this trade

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

He's playing top pairing minutes with Slavin at ES but he isn't their top PP option for RH shot (Faulk), and he isn't used at all on the PK (Pesce gets most of the RH minutes).

Just seems so rare to have a top pairing d-man that isn't really being utilized heavily on special teams. Guess that is part of Carolina having such a stacked blue line this season though.

Hamilton was barely used on the PK in Calgary. The guy is not a good player without the puck. He wasn't good without the puck when he broke into the league, and he's not much better 6 seasons later. Hamilton is an offensive specialist and not the all-around stud that so many fans hoped he would become, or that the stats nerds believe he is. He's not a Hedman or a Chara, he's a Mike Green.

People often forget Hamilton wasn't picked for Team North America. It's pretty clear that coaches don't trust his defensive game.

[GioforPM]

I think a lot of people (me included) looked at Hamilton's size and reach and hoped/expected that he'd develop defensive and physical play as he progressed. I don't think it's going to happen. I never thought he was as bad as some did but it certainly wasn't a strength.

BTW, wasn't he always listed at 6'5" here? He's apparently grown an inch.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

It's definitely not one-sided, but I think it's been going considerably better for Carolina so far... they may have (finally) lost a game last night thanks to Laurent Brossoit of all people standing on his head, but they just put up a hundred shots on goal in back to back road games against playoff teams.

As always, everything depends on goaltending holding up, but whether it was the trade or replacing their coach, they're already a noticeably better team than last year from the net out. And neither answer is particularly great news for the Flames.

The best kind of trade is one that benefits both teams. It makes it easier to do trades in the future, than when one team clearly comes out ahead.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

And goaltending cannot be discounted for how it helps to contribute to other individual players performances. When your goalie cannot stop a beach ball, it puts a tonne of pressure on you and your mates to score. When that pressure is on I believe it is collectively a lot harder for players to play.

Carolina has great underlying numbers this year, and it looks sustainable in that they don't have any one stat that is carrying them. They are out playing and out chancing the opposition but they don't have insane shooting or save percentage stats. Their PDO is 1.00 flat.

And yeah Calgary is different.

They are out playing the opposition by all measures, especially in shot and chance generation. They give up too much, not in shot attempts but in high danger chances against which they have to clean up. Their execution numbers are way below average so far too ... their save percentage (overall, and on high danger chances) is brutal, and their shooting percentages are less than league average both overall and in high danger chances. This puts their PDO at 0.98 which is bottom third of the league.

To be 3-2-0 with 4 road games, stops in Nashville, St. Louis and Colorado and a PDO in the bottom third of the league is a pretty good sign.

[Strange Brew]

I am not quite ready to say Carolina’s start is sustainable. All teams will go through a stretch of 5 games where they play great and shooting and save percentages are going to change radically for many teams. Now obviously that is a team that will benefit greatly from improved goaltending compared to last year. But not sure the 3 guys they have will be able to provide that.

[driveway]

Probably already somewhere in this, or another Lindholm thread, but according to this athletic.com article, Lindholm is the youngest Swede to have ever scored in the NHL.

That's a pretty crazy accomplishment.

[shadowlord]

Analyzing the early returns of the Flames-Hurricanes blockbuster trade

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...kbuster-trade/

[Phaneufenstein]

Originally Posted by shadowlord

Analyzing the early returns of the Flames-Hurricanes blockbuster trade

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...kbuster-trade/

Interesting bit from that article:
Hanifin and Hamilton both have the most defensive zone starts among defencemen for their respective teams.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by shadowlord

Analyzing the early returns of the Flames-Hurricanes blockbuster trade

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...kbuster-trade/

The article doesn't look at contract status, or the deals Treliving swung, which is a factor IMO.

[dino7c]

contract status is a MAJOR factor

[Matty81]

Man that's a brutal analysis.... how you skip contract status completely is beyond me.
1 year of Ferland, 3 years of Hamilton. Flames get 6 years of Lindholm and 6 of Hanifin after the RFA deals. Maybe Ferland and Hamilton re-sign but still you can't discount the value there, or Adam Fox.


Glad I subscribed to the athletic after reading that garbage.

[868904]

The article is complete garbage and reeks of someone who has never watched any of these players play and is basing his entire analysis on a bunch of stats that are muddle with "noise".

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by shadowlord

Analyzing the early returns of the Flames-Hurricanes blockbuster trade

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...kbuster-trade/

Thanks for sharing.

The one thing that the article briefly alludes to is the effect that one player has on his teammates. Some statistics can infer these impacts, but again, event rates are so low for relevant situations.

I am not a huge fan of using counting stats or even Corsi to evaluate 5-6 games. I know that in the media, if you don't publish a story, the other guy will, so nobody is waiting around for enough data to demonstrate statistically rigorous results.

Just to demonstrate: Last year, Calgary had a total of 5005 even-strength shot events (2606 for, 2399 against). Overall, that's good for a 5-vs-5 Corsi of 52.1. Let's say Bill Peters wants to increase that Corsi by 5% (a HUGE Corsi increase) to 57.1. When will we be confident (mathematically speaking) that the Flames have increased their Corsi by 5%?

Well, that's a one sample test of proportions. It will need to be two-sided (Calgary could have plausibly also decreased Corsi by 5%). Let's assume that the 'power' of the test will be the commonly accepted 80% (meaning 20% chance that we will make a false negative conclusion; in other words, 20% chance that we did not observe an underlying 5% Corsi increase when there is indeed one). And let's say that the statistical significance ('alpha') will be set at the common threshold of 0.05 (which is only a 5% chance of a false positive conclusion; in other words, 5% of the time we did observe an underlying 5% Corsi increase when there actually was not an underlying improvement).

With those parameters, and a similar total shot rate / game as last year, we need to wait 12 games until we see a huge 5-vs-5 Corsi change of 5%!!! Interestingly, 2% is the SMALLEST Corsi change that we can reliably observe over an entire 82 game season, for an entire team.

Player events are (obviously) less frequent than total team events. Dougie had a very high event rate (even strength Corsi for/against) which is mostly driven by his high TOI. His total events over 82 games last season was 3147 shots (both for and against, while on ice, at even strength). The SMALLEST Corsi change that we can observe for him over 82 games, if event rates (shots / game) stay constant for him, is 2.5%.

Now let's apply this issue to the current article. Over 7 games, the SMALLEST even strength Corsi change that we could see for Dougie would be 7.7%. That is a HUGE Corsi change, and ignores all the other factors involved.


Looking at that explanation above, you are probably thinking 'well, lots of things change during that many games'. You're right; people get injured, momentum swings, coaches change approach. There are score effects too. We are not measuring a steady state, and this may not be an appropriate place to apply the 'normal distribution'. These issues exist in all sports, but to a lesser extent in some, such as baseball. But every time we account for these factors, we either need to A) stratify analysis and lose numbers (power), or B) create a regression model. Both introduce issues with interpretation, though I am sure that the professional stats guys who are hired by these teams qualify all of their analysis with logistic regression.

TL;DR:

Even though Corsi event rates are much more frequent than traditional stats (eg: goals, +/-, etc), it is dangerous to come to conclusions unless you have a solid understanding of statistics. Furthermore, we can't always apply basic statistical assumptions. That most often means that we need more data points.

Decisions in hockey need to be made faster than currently available statistics can become available. While the great 'Corsi' of an established player like Backlund can be stated with some certainty, the changes that occur during seasons or even between seasons cannot be robustly portrayed when there are only around 60 shots total per game.

This is why people with a good 'eye test' are still employed in this sport. And this is coming from somebody who works with statistics daily.

[TheScorpion]

Huh, TIL you can use indents on posts.

[Flamenspiel]

Well, they are all of a sudden on a two game losing streak.


I watched the Winnepeg game. Ferland's goal was a 2 incher on a rebound or goalpost from Hamilton's shot. The losing goal was Hamilton's fault, he was slow to get on the ice, fell on his butt and his defensive move was a stick waive at the shooter who scored. They both played ok but Winnipeg still won the game even though they looked disinterested.

Other then that I came away very impressed with Aho, he looks like a star player. Lets see what happens as their opposition improves. Because of Aho's puck control skills Ferland is able to hang around the net a lot, very impressive for a 21 year old.

[Flashpoint]

Hamilton skates like a deer and has the same level of courage as one.

Ferland has 4 goals this season, which means he has 6 in 2018 IIRC.

It’s early, but I LOVE this trade...

[nickerjones]

oops wrong thread

[ForeverFlameFan]

Peters has taken more timeouts in these 7 games than GG his whole tenure here.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

I think it’s open - really good article about Hanafin. Includes a reminder that he’s younger than Rasmus Andersson.

https://theathletic.com/600164/2018/...hockey-ladder/