Real estate in Calgary - another bubble?

[Calgary14]

I think in that report they even admitted they couldn't reasonably quantify the amount of money laundering in BC and used 2015 GDP as an indicator. I don't think they considered foreign ownership of properties in the study. I would think if real estate prices rise 40% in 3 years that could at least be an indicator of laundering

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Source?

I'll see if I can find it.
I just recall when the big story about money laundering came out 2-3 years ago, Alberta actually had more than BC which was surprising to see.
I'm sure it's interrelated too, not like money launderers care about provincial boarders.

Edit: Here's the actual report from 2019:
https://news.gov.bc.ca/files/Combatt...ing_Report.pdf

Some figures here: https://edmontonjournal.com/news/loc...erta-each-year

[GGG]

GDP and Crime rate are the key inputs to that money laundering model. Alberta was an outlier in GDP during the period in time this was looked at. Not sure I would ascribe to much accuracy to those numbers

[chemgear]

Too dangerous to even bother investigating.


https://globalnews.ca/news/7593419/b...en-commission/

British Columbia’s gaming regulator concluded Asian organized crime was becoming so powerful inside B.C. casinos after 2010 that it was too dangerous to investigate suspected drug-cash laundering estimated to reach about $200 million per year, the province’s inquiry into money laundering heard Friday.

But nothing was done until a major RCMP investigation in 2015 threatened to embarrass the B.C. government, according to Derek Dickson, the B.C. Gaming Policy Enforcement Branch’s former director of casino investigations.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

I think he meant too profitable.

[Brewmaster]

With 2021 numbers in it looks like things are on the way up in Calgary: https://www.creb.com/News/CREBNow/20...or_home_sales/

Calgary sales reached 27,686 units this year, nearly 72 per cent higher than last year and over 44 per cent higher than the 10-year average.

As of December, the unadjusted benchmark price rose by nearly one per cent over last month and was sitting over 10 per cent higher than last year’s figures.

We are entering 2022 with some of the tightest conditions seen in over a decade. As of December, inventory levels are nearly 25 per cent lower than long-term averages for the month.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by Brewmaster

With 2021 numbers in it looks like things are on the way up in Calgary: https://www.creb.com/News/CREBNow/20...or_home_sales/

Calgary sales reached 27,686 units this year, nearly 72 per cent higher than last year and over 44 per cent higher than the 10-year average.

As of December, the unadjusted benchmark price rose by nearly one per cent over last month and was sitting over 10 per cent higher than last year’s figures.

We are entering 2022 with some of the tightest conditions seen in over a decade. As of December, inventory levels are nearly 25 per cent lower than long-term averages for the month.

And condo prices are still super deflated. Maybe they will come back one day...

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Leondros

And condo prices are still super deflated. Maybe they will come back one day...

It turns out that what planners and developers think buyers should want is not what they actually want. Millennials are following in the footsteps of every generation before them and moving to detached homes in the burbs to start families.

[you&me]

Bless CREB and their spinny-spin-spin.

Forget 10% year over year; I know lots of people that would just be happy for their house to be worth what it was in 2008

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by you&me

Bless CREB and their spinny-spin-spin.

Forget 10% year over year; I know lots of people that would just be happy for their house to be worth what it was in 2008

But the peak price was 2015.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It turns out that what planners and developers think buyers should want is not what they actually want. Millennials are following in the footsteps of every generation before them and moving to detached homes in the burbs to start families.

I'm out of thanks, but that's exactly what this is.

[burn_this_city]

Pandemic accelerated that trend for obvious reasons. Lockdowns weren't too bad if you had a backyard to kick back in, and don't have a share an elevator with your anti mask neighbor.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

But the peak price was 2015.

For the overall median price, yes. But some segments of the market peaked in 2008 and still haven't recovered. It was a wild period and you have to remember that in 2008, the average detached home was worth more in Calgary than Toronto.

[Brewmaster]

Originally Posted by you&me

Bless CREB and their spinny-spin-spin.

Forget 10% year over year; I know lots of people that would just be happy for their house to be worth what it was in 2008

I'm no realtor but what exactly is CREB spinning here? They basically say that detached house prices went up ~10% Y/Y and that apartment condos were only up 2% (and still 14% below previous highs in 2014).

The low inventory story also seems legit when you look on MLS or talk to anyone looking to buy right now.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by Brewmaster

I'm no realtor but what exactly is CREB spinning here? They basically say that detached house prices went up ~10% Y/Y and that apartment condos were only up 2% (and still 14% below previous highs in 2014).

The low inventory story also seems legit when you look on MLS or talk to anyone looking to buy right now.

The low inventory story is legit, but was explained to me over the holidays that it's at least partially due to the number of owners that can confidently sell their homes in what's been a relatively flat market is running low. Mortgage regulations, damaged credit, employment situation, decreased savings, etc are all weighing on (some) people's ability to handle a negative equity situation, effectively trapping them in their current home / mortgage.

10% y/y is a great stat, but needs to be considered in the context that 2020 was the end of a long, downward trend.

[Calgary14]

CREB: "It's a great time to buy! It's also a great time to sell!" Whatever you're thinking of doing, do it now!"

[Regular_John]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It turns out that what planners and developers think buyers should want is not what they actually want. Millennials are following in the footsteps of every generation before them and moving to detached homes in the burbs to start families.

Every generation? Hardly, it more or less started with the “silent generation” that returned from WWII and gave birth to the boomers.

But back to the topic at hand, obviously a house in the burbs with a giant yard is quite appealing during a lockdown, but assuming WFH remains after the pandemic abates, I think we’ll see different preferences start to influence the market.

For me personally my home is now my workplace, which made me pickier about what’s in my immediate vicinity… millennials love their lattes and having them in walking distance may be more important than a garage full of toys.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It turns out that what planners and developers think buyers should want is not what they actually want. Millennials are following in the footsteps of every generation before them and moving to detached homes in the burbs to start families.

Condos and kids (or even couples) are a bad combo, and younger millennials don't have the cash and/or aren't settled enough to buy the condos anymore.

I think there is a large segment of the population that would like to buy townhomes close to the downtown core. Those barely exist east of Toronto though. Not everyone wants to deal with yard maintenance and would prioritize a short commute, but most people likely want at least 1400 sq feet, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and space for a full bbq and outdoor eating area.

The focus should be on zoning for the "middle" across Canada, but we won't see that anytime soon. Frankly, what made me leave Calgary was the excessive commuting times and general sprawl. If there were proper medium density communities within walking distance of bars, breweries, restaurants, and other entertainment I would reconsider. Unfortunately, Montreal is the only city in Canada that has that properly down.

Overall, I'd say people aged 20-50 are even moving away from the house and yard model, but Canada largely doesn't offer anything but house/yard and condo. No middle.

[Bunk]

The other thing with multi-family housing right now is there is still lots of construction and demand (particularly new units vs old), but it has shifted dramatically from condo to purpose built rental.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by blankall

Overall, I'd say people aged 20-50 are even moving away from the house and yard model, but Canada largely doesn't offer anything but house/yard and condo. No middle.

78 per cent of young urban families (20-45) in major cities (Van, Cal, Tor, Mon) express a preference for detached homes. In Calgary, it’s 91 per cent.

http://www.newgeography.com/content/...-condos-survey