[Signing] Preds, Arvidsson sign 7-year, $29.75M deal

[transplant99]

Could be a steal of deal for Nashville long term.

http://www.tsn.ca/preds-arvidsson-si...-deal-1.811323

[GullFoss]

I get the protection built into the contract; even as a 20-goal scorer he is arguably worth $4m. And he got 30 goals last year. And if he gets 30 goals a year, Nashville just got a 6m player for $4.25m for 7 years.

But even still - I cant help but think its a lot of risk for Nashville to take on because of the term. In part because the contract is based on 1 good season. And in part because I dont think Arvidsson is actually that good. Meh...I guess we'll see.

[1qqaaz]

Poile always signs these long term deals, and they always turn out great. Whether it be Järnkrok (2 million till 2022), Josi (4 million till 2020), Arvidsson (4.25 million till 2023), Forsberg (6 million till 2022), or Ekholm (3.75 till 2022), they're all great contracts.

There's inherent risk in long term deals, but Poile is great at signing these types of contracts.
Basically all of these deals were signed while the player was between 22 and 26 years old.

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

I get the protection built into the contract; even as a 20-goal scorer he is arguably worth $4m. And he got 30 goals last year. And if he gets 30 goals a year, Nashville just got a 6m player for $4.25m for 7 years.

But even still - I cant help but think its a lot of risk for Nashville to take on because of the term. In part because the contract is based on 1 good season. And in part because I dont think Arvidsson is actually that good. Meh...I guess we'll see.

It's inherent when you commit to anything long term but given how you're paying a pretty low cost for only all of a player's premium years, it's hard much easier of a risk management. By the time the deal expires, Arvidsson will be about 31yo. Already you're well ahead because you don't have to deal with the extreme and inevitable decline in a player's performance and even then it'll only be slight at that age which still makes the contract fairly reasonable.

Also it isn't based on 1 good season. Even in 2015-2016 he was showing a lot of promise in breaking out soon. This year was a surprise for a lot of people but I doubt Nashville wasn't expecting it. Even as Arvidsson posted up numbers as a result of increased minutes and better linemates, they're all still promising factors.
Out of the 31 goals, he's got 22 on even strength which is easily the most important. Lead the league with 5 short handed goals. You could continue to look at the underlying numbers as well but even with the eye test it's obvious this is a guy who generates chances regularly.

[H2SO4(aq)]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Poile always signs these long term deals, and they always turn out great. Whether it be Järnkrok (2 million till 2022), Josi (4 million till 2020), Arvidsson (4.25 million till 2023), Forsberg (6 million till 2022), or Ekholm (3.75 till 2022), they're all great contracts.

There's inherent risk in long term deals, but Poile is great at signing these types of contracts.
Basically all of these deals were signed while the player was between 22 and 26 years old.

Little early to say they turn out great. We will find out in 2021,2022 if they're still great value. Looks good now but in hockey, that's a long long time.

[FBI]

Quite the difference between Nashville and Florida.
Nashville: 30 goal breakout player, sign him forever.
Florida: 30 goal breakout player, expose him to Vegas.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by FBI

Quite the difference between Nashville and Florida.
Nashville: 30 goal breakout player, sign him forever.
Florida: 30 goal breakout player, expose him to Vegas.

I think the difference was when you watched both players.

Arvidsson drove the Nashville offence at the end of last year. He was their key guy, and did so as a 24 year old. He averaged over 3 shoots a game on net, and didn't have an unsustainable shooting percentage. There was nothing lucky about his final numbers, in fact they increased as the year went by. He scored at about a 50 point pace in the first half of the season, about a 70 point pace in the 2nd half.

Marchessault, at 26, was clearly a complementary player for the Florida offence. He averaged about 2.5 shots on net, and had a 15.5% shooting percentage, which would be hard to sustain. He had 33 non-PP points last year, and was a -21, the worse number among Florida forwards. By comparison, Arvidsson was +16, best among Nashville forwards, and had 52 non-PP points.

The Arvidsson contract is likely to be a huge steel for Nashville going forward, as they have him for his entire prime years. Like all long term contracts, there is risk, but the risk is for the right guy, at the right time, at the right price.

[Fourteen FTW]

Pretty tough to argue this isn't a good deal. Most would be over the moon to get Bennett signed to a contract like this and the folks in Nashville would likely argue Victor is better.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Fourteen FTW

Pretty tough to argue this isn't a good deal. Most would be over the moon to get Bennett signed to a contract like this and the folks in Nashville would likely argue Victor is better.

Great point, and Arvidsson is certainly more proven.

I think Bennett has a higher ceiling long term, but it hard to imagine Arvidsson not being worth at least close to this contract value as a floor value.


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[Enoch Root]

It's obvious why Nashville keeps pushing for these long contracts. What I find amazing is that they keep convincing the players to agree to them.

I think in this case that there is some real risk that he isn't an impact player for that long. But at $4.25M per, it's a pretty good bet to take (for the team).

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

I get the protection built into the contract; even as a 20-goal scorer he is arguably worth $4m. And he got 30 goals last year. And if he gets 30 goals a year, Nashville just got a 6m player for $4.25m for 7 years.

But even still - I cant help but think its a lot of risk for Nashville to take on because of the term. In part because the contract is based on 1 good season. And in part because I dont think Arvidsson is actually that good. Meh...I guess we'll see.

Nah, Nashville has signed so many long term deals with lower cap hits that if one doesn't work out in a few years they've still saved more money than most teams by employing this strategy across so much of their young core.

If one guy busts in three years at $4mil a year, but you're saving $10mil a year in cap hits by this strategy, you call the strategy a success.

[Sylvanfan]

Even a 20 to 25 goal winger is worth 4 million in the NHL today. This contract starts out as a good cap number and should be for its duration. Arvidsson may never match last year's production offensively, but at this number he doesn't have to.

[Machiavelli]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

It's obvious why Nashville keeps pushing for these long contracts. What I find amazing is that they keep convincing the players to agree to them.

Guaranteed money over a stretch of years, nice climate, great but non-intrusive fan base, and respectful media? Sign me up.

[Erick Estrada]

I think the term is probably worth it given the first half to the deal his likely highly slanted in the team's favour.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I think the term is probably worth it given the first half to the deal his likely highly slanted in the team's favour.

The back half is likely even better.


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[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Machiavelli

Guaranteed money over a stretch of years, nice climate, great but non-intrusive fan base, and respectful media? Sign me up.

Yeah I think Nashville may become a more sought after destination for players after the cup run where North America got to witness that city go crazy. Kind of reminds me of the Flames after 2004 as after a decade of being shunned by free agents guys were all of a sudden willing to sign in Calgary. Great fan base, great city, good team, and mild climate. What's not to like?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Machiavelli

Guaranteed money over a stretch of years, nice climate, great but non-intrusive fan base, and respectful media? Sign me up.

Yeah but all of those things could be gotten without foregoing future earnings. Well, except the guaranteed earnings. Players believe in themselves.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

It's obvious why Nashville keeps pushing for these long contracts. What I find amazing is that they keep convincing the players to agree to them.

I think in this case that there is some real risk that he isn't an impact player for that long. But at $4.25M per, it's a pretty good bet to take (for the team).

I think you're over-estimating that the players who aren't power forwards are potentially actually foregoing future earnings. Let's say he signs a 3.5M two year bridge. What's the highest someone will pay a guy like Arvidsson even if this year is repeated twice? maybe 5.5 x 5? He's not big and I doubt he sees himself being 80+ points during that period of time. Teams, however irrationally, will overpay size and underpay a small guy like Arvidsson.

3.5x2Y + 5Y(5.5M) = 4.93 M AAV

Personally, I think the difference between 4.25M and 4.93M AAV isn't great enough to pass on the job security.

[Philly06Cup]

Steal of a contract AINEC

[united]

Huge 5v5 production (at both ends of the rink), trending to be an elite penalty killer, and it's likely he improves in ever aspect of the game over the next few seasons. Robbery of a contract for the Predators. Bravo.

Аrpon Basu‏ @ArponBasu
The Predators have Victor Arvidsson, Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis at a combined $20.5 million cap hit.