104th Grey Cup: CALGARY STAMPEDERS vs Ottawa REDBLACKS

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

Calgary secondary has to be ready to play. Burris will come out slinging bombs. If we put a stop to it early in the game, I think it ends up a blowout.

We all know as Stampeders fans what Burris throwing bombs in high pressure situations results in, and it isn't ever good for the team he actually plays on.

I've actually never been more confident of a championship in my life. I hope the Stamps aren't as arrogant as I have been this week. I honestly can't see any scenario where the Stamps lose.

[CaptainCrunch]

Part two http://forums.cflhorsemen.ca/post113238.html#p113238

Welcome to Part 2 of my Grey Cup preview where I look at the Stampeders Defense versus Ottawa’s offense.


Calgary Stampeders Defense versus Ottawa’s Offense

Ottawa’s Offensive Unit

Here’s where things might get a little interesting, and the reason why I say this is we don’t really know how good Ottawa’s offense is, however we do know, especially after last week that Calgary’s defense is lights out good.

Ottawa’s offense scored a 6th best 486 points in the regular season and then followed that up by putting 35 points up on the Edmonton Eskimos in the Eastern Finals. Stats wise Ottawa rushed for 1691 yards on 331 carries for a league worst 4.8 ypc ad 13 touchdowns. Passing wise Ottawa lead the league with 6191 yards and completed 69% of their passes. From a turnover perspective the REDBLACKS threw 15 interceptions and had 43 turnovers overall versus 46 TDs. Their offensive line also had a lot of trouble in terms of QB protection as they allowed 50 sacks.

Its pretty clear that the OTTAWA REDBLACKS tend to live and die by their passing game as their rushing effectiveness is fairly low. Henry Burris came off of the bench and put up a 98% QB Efficiency but he threw 9 touchdowns versus 12 interceptions. Ottawa did feature 34 1000 yard plus receivers this year in Ellingson, Jackson, Sinopoli and Williams, however Chris Williams is on the 6 game injured reserve and will not play. In terms of running backs, starting tailback Mossi Madu is doubtful for this game so the running game will fall to Travon Van and Canadian Kienan Lafrance who scorched the Eskimos for 157 yards.

Simply put, Jamie Elizondo the REDBLACKS OC is a gambler, he likes the big play and the deep ball and because of that Ottawa is a very dangerous quick strike team. However in order for the REDBLACKS to stay in the ballpark with the Stampeders they’re going to have to find a way to eat the clock and maintain drives and be patient against a very good secondary. At the same time Ottawa is going to have to find a way to protect their QB and limit the amount of mistakes that could wind up haunting them, Ottawa turned the ball over 4 times against the Eskimos last week and while weather was certainly a factor, it will kill them against the Stampeders.

Calgary’s Defensive Unit

Usually it’s arrogant presumption to say that you have the best defense in the league, but statistically Calgary can actually boast that throughout the regular season and after the first game of the playoffs that they do have the best defense in the league.
The Stampeders lead the way in most categories, allowing the fewest yards against, the fewest points against, and allowing the fewest rushing touchdowns against. In terms of passing touchdowns they did finish third in the CFL with 24 touchdowns against the pass. On average the Stampeders allowed 5.7 yards per play which is a testament to outstanding positioning and tackling. Turnovers were a big factor in the Stampeders success as they intercepted the ball 11 times which isn’t spectacular but they also generated 46 overall turnovers versus giving up 26 turnovers.

Its tough to sit here and talk strategy with the Stamps because like their offense they’ve shown remarkable versatility. During the regular season the stampeders played a lot of man up zone, however against the Lions they went to a man to man underneath coverage with a strong cover two. It’s logical to assume that the Stamps will play a man to man defense against a deep ball team like the REDBLACKS. With the strength of the REDBLACKS offense at the slot position, its logical to assume that Bell, Smith and Walls will see a lot of work underneath. The Stamps will also be wise to try to pressure Hank who’s evolved away from being a every down scrambler to more of a pocket passer, however if you can force him to throw on the move you can certainly impact his accuracy and read ability.

At the start of the year rookie DC Devone Claybrooks caught blitz fever and the Stamps struggled with their coverage because of that, but he’s evolved into a more patient DC who doesn’t blitz as heavily and puts players in a position on the field where they can use their athletic abilities. Because of that the Stampeders defense is very aggressive on a individual level and rally to the ball better than anyone else in the league.

Key Personal – REDBLACKS

Hank Burris – It gets boring in a way that every time Henry’s name comes up the question is Hank or Frank. This year we’ve seen both with probably his best game of the year coming when he needed it most against the Eskimos. Playing Hank is an exercise in frustration because of the strength of his arm and the ability to hit the unstoppable out routes. Playing Frank is an exercise in frustration for his own team because his throws look wobbly and rushed and his accuracy drops.

Brad Sinopoli – A great Canadian receiver that slips under the radar and makes clutch catches. I think we can throw out the whole former Stampeder motivation and go with the whole it’s the Grey Cup motivation. Brad is often the forgotten man when it comes to secondarys and is usually the 2nd or 3rd look for a QB. But he’s great at finding seams and sitting in them. I would say football IQ wise he’s an elite player.

Trevor Harris – You have to wonder what happens if Henry struggles out of the gate. Harris gives a whole different Ricky Ray type of aura to the Ottawa offense.

Key Personal – Calgary

The forenamed inside of the secondary ,Bell, Walls and Smith. - The REDBLACKS exploit the seams extremely well and the Stamps secondary will be challenged on Sunday. If they’re successful Ottawa doesn’t have much else in the quiver.

Alex Singleton – An awesome rookie year that allowed him to take over the starting MAC role. Its going to be up to him to gap nullify and take away Ottawa’s run game.

Charleston Hughes – How can I not make him a key player against a line that’s given up 50 sacks.


Advantage – Calgary

Ottawa’s offense has a gaudy receiver core but after that this team is fairly one dimensional. Their running back production is a bit questionable, even with LaFrance in who scorched a shaky Eskimos defense. Ottawa turns over the ball a lot on offense which means that Calgary’s offense will get the ball in good field position if this happens.

Tommorrow – Special Teams and Intangibles.

[dash_pinched]

While pizza (supplies) last...



http://www.cbc.ca/sports/football/cf...-cup-1.3866277

Edit: The CFL has cancelled the promotion (story updated, details in above link).

[tvp2003]

^^ Oh man, that's unbelievable.

And I'm not sure if I buy the whole "it didn't have proper authorization" explanation. Someone with the league/Argos/BMO field told someone at Pizza Pizza to launch this thing. Either they did so without asking anyone, or they got a green light before quickly back-tracking.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Pizza Pizza is a GC sponsor.

They probably got big blocks of tickets for free and figured they'd parlay that into pizza sales.

[TheAlpineOracle]

It's also the worst pizza on the planet. Makes Pizza 73 look like gourmet.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

It's also the worst pizza on the planet. Makes Pizza 73 look like gourmet.

Pizza Pizza bought Pizza 73 a few years ago.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by getbak

Pizza Pizza bought Pizza 73 a few years ago.

It's still different pizza. I dislike both of them, but I had Pizza Pizza in Toronto last night and I threw it out which never happens.

[FireGilbert]

Originally Posted by dash_pinched

While pizza (supplies) last...

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/football/cf...-cup-1.3866277

Edit: The CFL has cancelled the promotion (story updated, details in above link).

There are still tickets available to the game on StubHub for as low as $75 as of Thursday, but those wouldn't have come with two dipping sauces.

I literally LOLed at this.

[dash_pinched]

One lucky Hamilton Pizza Pizza customer reported, via Twitter, that he walked out of a store 10 minutes before the promotion was kiboshed with his grub, plus two tickets in section 117, each with a face value of $299.

http://www.ottawasun.com/2016/11/24/...ey-cup-tickets

[Ashasx]

There is no reason to host the Grey Cup game in a city that doesn't have a team playing.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

There is no reason to host the Grey Cup game in a city that doesn't have a team playing.

That is incorrect. There are quite a few reasons. Good ones.

[CaptainCrunch]

Last one

So after predicting advantages for Calgary in terms of offense and defense, its time to close up this chapter with a look at special teams and to talk about any intangibles that might effect the game.

Special Teams

Unlike the other areas that I discussed and had a versus flavor, I’m just going to look at special teams. Why? Maybe because I just feel like it, or maybe because I’m just not a special teams analyst.

Special Teams - Calgary

The return game

In terms of Punt returns Calgary finished 4th in the league averaging about 12.7 yards per opportunity while finishing first in the league in terms of kickoff returns with a sparkling 24.3 yard average. Calgary was lead by Roy Finch who showed throughout the season that he was an exceptionally dangerous returner who could give the team a short field advantage. Finch finished second in the league in average punt returns with a 14.0 average while finishing second in kickoff returns with a 24.7 yard average, while he didn’t bust a kickoff for a touchdown in 2016 he did return a punt for a touchdown.

In terms of return coverage, Calgary did struggle with effective punt coverage allowing an average of 13.2 yards and finished middle of the pack by holding the opposition to an average of 20.7 yards on kickoff returns. One thing that’s important to note is that Calgary did block 3 punts this season.

Calgary’s unquestioned leaders on special teams are Love and Thibault who had 21 and 19 special teams respectively,

The kicking game

Calgary has one of the strongest kicking tandems in the CFL, Rene Parades didn’t have the best year of his career with a 87.5% success rate on field gales however inside of the 40 yard line he had a 93% accuracy, DD did show some trust in the field goal kicker as he allowed him to attempt 23 field goals in the 40 to 49 yard range with a 78% success rate and he was 1 for 1 outside of 50 yards.

Rob Maver continues to be an elite directional punter in the CFL and the stats show that in a couple of ways. While his average punt was 46.9 yards on 99 punts his return yards came in at 959 yards for an average of 9.67 yards per return.

Special Teams – Ottawa

Ottawa struggled when they punted the ball this year average a poor 43.2 yard average, while finishing in the middle of the pack with a 64.2 yard average on kickoffs. Meideiros had a 43.7 yard average on 63 punts, while Chris Milo handled the field goal duties and had a low accuracy of 81 yards, however he showed a strong leg by making all 3 attempts over 50 yards.

In terms of coverage duties, Ottawa was stellar on punt return coverage finishing second in the CFL with a stingy 10.5 yard average, kickoff coverage was respectable as well as the finished 5th in the CFL with a 21.4 yard average. In terms of a special teams demon type, Ottawa didn’t have that instead they worked very well by committee, their leading special teams tackler was Offensive Lineban Albright Mathew with 16 tackles.

If football is a game of field position, everything that I’ve listed above should point to Calgary winning the battle of field position. On top of that Calgary just has a better punting and field goal game though Ottawa certainly has an advantage in terms of long field goals. I just can’t help but think that the battle between Finch and Jackson is just a fairly overwhelming advantage to Calgary

Advantage – Calgary

Intangibles

Seriously it’s the Grey Cup, so there isn’t a lot of motivational difference here, both teams want to win this game badly and will run over their mother if she tries to step in to make a tackle. However in my mind there are three major intangibles here.

Mylan Hicks – Sadly Hicks was killed in a shooting earlier this season, but the Stamps rallied around each other and around his family and it seems to be a major motivating factor. From players writing his number on their arms to wearing his jersey to sending game balls to Hick’s mother, this team has rallied around a team tragedy.
Coaching – Frankly this stampeders team is so good because of depth and talent, but more importantly because this coaching staff is completely dialed in and has been since game three of the season when they came from behind to tie the REDBLACKS. Since then this team has been devastatingly good. With a coaching staff that seem to value preparation and scouting and self scouting to the point that every team gets a different look. To the strong ability to adjust on the fly which has lead to this team not only coming out of the gates like an avalanche and putting teams away early to being able to complete late game drives when they need them most.

Coaching – Frankly this stampeders team is so good because of depth and talent, but more importantly because this coaching staff is completely dialed in and has been since game three of the season when they came from behind to tie the REDBLACKS. Since then this team has been devastatingly good. With a coaching staff that seem to value preparation and scouting and self scouting to the point that every team gets a different look. To the strong ability to adjust on the fly which has lead to this team not only coming out of the gates like an avalanche and putting teams away early to being able to complete late game drives when they need them most.

The legitimacy factor – Frankly since about game 10, this team has been told that its one of the best of all times, it’s a major ego stroking, however they’ve also been told about the Edmonton Eskimos 1989 team that had 16 wins and were upset in the Western Finals. This is a great lesson for a team to not let their ego’s get ahead of their results

Advantage – Calgary

So overall I’ve laid out all the facets of the game, and to me I’ve come to the conclusion that Calgary is just a stronger team in all three facets of the game, and they are a stronger team in terms of individual positions and players and depth. That doesn’t mean that Ottawa can’t beat Calgary. We’ve all heard the term “On any given Sunday”, and Ottawa has the ability and talent to be that team. But to do it there are a lot of if’s that have to happen.

Hank has to have a strong game
The Ottawa receivers have to beat the coverage of the best secondary in the league
Ottawa has to limit their mistakes and turnovers, something that haven’t been good at this year.
Ottawa needs to win the field position battle
Ottawa’s offense needs to eat the clock and keep Calgary’s offense on the sidelines.
Ottawa needs to have a better overall gameplan then Calgary.
Ottawa needs to keep the score low or close to lead the way to last drive heroics
To me that’s a long laundry list and if Ottawa can’t live up to any two of these they’re going to lose the game.

On paper and even based on what we’ve seen this year, this is a mismatch of epic proportions, a virtual David versus not only Goliath, but Goliath’s entire family.

I’ll take Calgary to beat the 8.5 point spread. Calgary 37 Ottawa 19

Thanks for reading and enjoy the game

[Otto-matic]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

There is no reason to host the Grey Cup game in a city that doesn't have a team playing.

I disagree with this, its nice having the game showcased across Canada regardless of the teams playing in it.

[dash_pinched]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

There is no reason to host the Grey Cup game in a city that doesn't have a team playing.

There are thousands of Canadians that plan an annual pilgrimage to the Grey Cup game regardless of where the championship game is held, that's a little tougher to do (and likely more costly) if you don't know where the game is going to be held.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

There is no reason to host the Grey Cup game in a city that doesn't have a team playing.

Wrong.

[dash_pinched]

Marty the horse will be at the downtown Holiday Inn tonight in Toronto.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/footb...of-course.html

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

There is no reason to host the Grey Cup game in a city that doesn't have a team playing.

There are several very good reasons. Such as, you don't know until seven days prior to the Grey Cup game who the combatants will be.

[FireGilbert]

It is great they spread the Grey Cup around. The problem was giving it to the city with the worst support only 4 years after they previously hosted.

[OzSome]

Stamps posted their lineup for tomorrow's game. Looks like OL Brad Erdos and Cam Thorn are out of the game due to injury. They added Williams and Randy Richards instead.