Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community
Old 01-16-2017, 03:12 PM   #1001
howard_the_duck
#1 Goaltender
 
howard_the_duck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle View Post
It's a big haul if all these guys pan out, which in baseball is never going to happen. I'd bet a lot of money Guerrero will be the only one of those guys listed which will make any impact at the MLB level.

That's the cost of acquiring a player to put you over the top though. The thing about McCutcheon, is you can easily move him a year down the road to replace the prospects you gave up. The Yankees do this to perfection.
If it puts you over the top, sure. But they're past that point I think we can all agree. It's now about maximizing their window to compete for postseason, but should not come at the expense of the future.

Even if one of those prospects pans out - let's say Guerrero Jr. has an EE-like career - it's a huge loss for the Jays in the sense they're getting a declining all-star not blessed with the tools that once made him great. And that alone won't be pushing the Jays over the top.

I can understand what the Pirates are looking to acquire in a trade dealing 'cutch, but I believe any team making that trade will rue the day they parted with what it took to get him.
howard_the_duck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2017, 03:34 PM   #1002
Parallex
I believe in the Jays.
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by howard_the_duck View Post
I can understand what the Pirates are looking to acquire in a trade dealing 'cutch, but I believe any team making that trade will rue the day they parted with what it took to get him.
Which is probably why a trade hasn't happened. If the Pirates are looking to get the kind of return the Sox got for Eaton/Sale... not gonna happen.
Parallex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2017, 05:16 PM   #1003
TheAlpineOracle
Lifetime Suspension
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by howard_the_duck View Post
If it puts you over the top, sure. But they're past that point I think we can all agree. It's now about maximizing their window to compete for postseason, but should not come at the expense of the future.

Even if one of those prospects pans out - let's say Guerrero Jr. has an EE-like career - it's a huge loss for the Jays in the sense they're getting a declining all-star not blessed with the tools that once made him great. And that alone won't be pushing the Jays over the top.

I can understand what the Pirates are looking to acquire in a trade dealing 'cutch, but I believe any team making that trade will rue the day they parted with what it took to get him.
So basically what your saying is that the Jays should never strive to win a championship? There's never a 100% guarantee and they are in win now mode. If you aren't willing to move prospects to add that last piece or two you need, than you aren't ever going to win championships unless your name is the Yankees or Red Sox who can afford to bring in any piece they want during free agency on 7 and 8 year deals.

I would tend to agree, that last year should have been the year a move like this was made if it was going to be made, but I don't agree with the Jays shouldn't be willing to move prospects in years they could compete. As it's been said many times in this thread, prospects are a dime a dozen in baseball. Any prospect the Jays trade now, can be easily replenished by trading someone next year or the year after (Tulo, Martin, Donaldson, whatever star they acquire). Don't kid yourself either, these guys will start to be moved the first season we don't make the postseason.

Last edited by TheAlpineOracle; 01-16-2017 at 10:49 PM.
TheAlpineOracle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2017, 07:56 AM   #1004
howard_the_duck
#1 Goaltender
 
howard_the_duck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle View Post
So basically what your saying is that the Jays should never strive to win a championship? There's never a 100% guarantee and they are in win now mode. If you aren't willing to move prospects to add that last piece or two you need, than you aren't ever going to win championships unless your name is the Yankees or Red Sox who can afford to bring in any piece they want during free agency on 7 and 8 year deals.

I would tend to agree, that last year should have been the year a move like this was made if it was going to be made, but I don't agree with the Jays shouldn't be willing to move prospects in years they could compete. As it's been said many times in this thread, prospects are a dime a dozen in baseball. Any prospect the Jays trade now, can be easily replenished by trading someone next year or the year after (Tulo, Martin, Donaldson, whatever star they acquire). Don't kid yourself either, these guys will start to be moved the first season we don't make the postseason.
I'm not sure where you got that conclusion based off my comments.

There is a time to bundle up prospects and make a trade that for a key piece that pushes you over the top. There are a couple of scenarios where I'd see this making the most sense:


1) Veteran team that's poised for a playoff appearance. A team that does not have much for youth in it's core, so trading prospect capital to give them that final piece makes sense since they would be headed to a full-blown rebuild anyway if they don't win a championship.

2) Young team with cheap, controllable talent, and a deep prospect pool (i.e Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers). As we've seen with these teams, packaging prospects makes a ton of sense since they have young, controllable position players in their core and are built to be a sustainable winner.


The Jays were most recently in the 1st bucket, but I believe that time has passed and it's now time to start stocking up on prospects rather than using them in deals to acquire more veterans.

With this approach, we're looking at a much shorter rebuild. Dealing the likes of Vlad Jr.++ to get McCutchen would be impatient, short sighted, and IMO set the franchise back a fair bit for when the inevitable rebuild comes, which is coming sooner than we all care to admit.
howard_the_duck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2017, 09:25 AM   #1005
edslunch
Franchise Player
 
edslunch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle View Post
So basically what your saying is that the Jays should never strive to win a championship? There's never a 100% guarantee and they are in win now mode. If you aren't willing to move prospects to add that last piece or two you need, than you aren't ever going to win championships unless your name is the Yankees or Red Sox who can afford to bring in any piece they want during free agency on 7 and 8 year deals.

I would tend to agree, that last year should have been the year a move like this was made if it was going to be made, but I don't agree with the Jays shouldn't be willing to move prospects in years they could compete. As it's been said many times in this thread, prospects are a dime a dozen in baseball. Any prospect the Jays trade now, can be easily replenished by trading someone next year or the year after (Tulo, Martin, Donaldson, whatever star they acquire). Don't kid yourself either, these guys will start to be moved the first season we don't make the postseason.


Your assertion that they are in win now mode may not be shared by Jays management (rightly or wrongly). Shapiro is more of a win over the long term kind of guy.
edslunch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2017, 09:42 AM   #1006
TheAlpineOracle
Lifetime Suspension
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by edslunch View Post
Your assertion that they are in win now mode may not be shared by Jays management (rightly or wrongly). Shapiro is more of a win over the long term kind of guy.
If that's the case, and i'm not arguing it isn't, there's no need to be fielding the lineup we are. Move some pieces while they still have value and start the rebuild. That won't be done though because the team is raking in the money right now, and we all know it won't be put away for a rainy day with Rogers.
TheAlpineOracle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2017, 09:46 AM   #1007
KootenayFlamesFan
Commie Referee
 
KootenayFlamesFan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Small town, B.C.
Exp:
Default

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeyman
Only hearing there's still work to do on Jays/Bautista. Unsure where it stands. also interested: rays, tribe #Mysterytalk
KootenayFlamesFan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2017, 10:05 AM   #1008
Parallex
I believe in the Jays.
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle View Post
If that's the case, and i'm not arguing it isn't, there's no need to be fielding the lineup we are. Move some pieces while they still have value and start the rebuild.
Why? If they sign Bautista and fill the remaining holes with MLB quality players it's still a playoff caliber team and the pieces they could trade for futures now won't depreciate at the trade deadline if the season goes below expectations.

They've got one more kick at the can and they should take that kick.
Parallex is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Parallex For This Useful Post:
Old 01-17-2017, 10:12 AM   #1009
calculoso
Franchise Player
 
calculoso's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Ontario
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Parallex View Post
They've got one more kick at the can and they should take that kick.
Emphasis on *should*. I'm not convinced they will
calculoso is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2017, 10:19 AM   #1010
Parallex
I believe in the Jays.
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by calculoso View Post
Emphasis on *should*. I'm not convinced they will
They're not selling, the absence of selling would indicate they're gonna take one last shot at it with the current core veteran group.
Parallex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2017, 10:27 AM   #1011
Cappy
First Line Centre
 
Cappy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Exp:
Default

I agree with TAO here (i know, right? ). EDIT: Also Parallex on the idea of deadline deal.

I would say the Jays window to compete is another two years, until JD is a free agent. This is noticeable in the contracts given out over the last couple years. Many end during that time.

The Jays are at that point where they need to decide whether to compete over the next two years, or go all in.

AA was the latter. I think Shapiro is the former. Nothing wrong with either philosophy, there are pros and cons to each and it always depends on the type of players available. I would hate to have the jays not make it to the WS when they got so lucky with some of their moves over the last few years.

Given the "buy low" on a guy like Cutch, his two year, cheap contract, and the need for a multi-tool player, if they are going to go for it, he would be a guy to look at - which is why they kicked the tires on him. (also, full disclosure - i love Cutch. dude is exactly the type of player we need. He is Fowler++

I could see the Jays circling around again on Cutch during the season. If we are looking for a piece, he could be someone to add at the deadline.

Last edited by Cappy; 01-17-2017 at 10:34 AM.
Cappy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2017, 10:54 AM   #1012
TheAlpineOracle
Lifetime Suspension
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cappy View Post
I agree with TAO here (i know, right? ). EDIT: Also Parallex on the idea of deadline deal.

I would say the Jays window to compete is another two years, until JD is a free agent. This is noticeable in the contracts given out over the last couple years. Many end during that time.

The Jays are at that point where they need to decide whether to compete over the next two years, or go all in.

AA was the latter. I think Shapiro is the former. Nothing wrong with either philosophy, there are pros and cons to each and it always depends on the type of players available. I would hate to have the jays not make it to the WS when they got so lucky with some of their moves over the last few years.

Given the "buy low" on a guy like Cutch, his two year, cheap contract, and the need for a multi-tool player, if they are going to go for it, he would be a guy to look at - which is why they kicked the tires on him. (also, full disclosure - i love Cutch. dude is exactly the type of player we need. He is Fowler++

I could see the Jays circling around again on Cutch during the season. If we are looking for a piece, he could be someone to add at the deadline.
You are risking a lot waiting to the deadline this year though if you want to take another run at it. Jays will not be able to make up the ground they did in 2016 and 2015 with the Red Sox fully rebuilt, a much improved Yankee team, and a status quo Orioles team.

If management was serious about making a run at it, moves had to have been made in the off season. Nothing was done, which suggests to me they aren't serious at all. They've essentially done enough to keep them competitive so that sweet revenue keeps coming in until they start shedding these contracts over the next two years.

It will be a good year to watch Jays baseball again, but riding out the roster you have instead of augmenting it to win or selling it off to start the rebuild is a terribly flawed strategy for a baseball team, though it makes perfect sense from a business perspective for a corporation whose main concerns is the bottom line.

Last edited by TheAlpineOracle; 01-17-2017 at 11:08 AM.
TheAlpineOracle is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to TheAlpineOracle For This Useful Post:
Old 01-17-2017, 11:20 AM   #1013
Jason14h
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Exp:
Default

Remember when the Flames held onto Iginla and Kipper hoping to make one last run at it/make playoffs.

This is essentially what the Jays are doing.

Tulo, Martin, Happ, Estrada have very nice/some value right now. They won't in 2 years and/or be FA's

Unless they add 2 impact bullpen arms (Are any even left) This is goes into next season worst then this season, while our main competition got better.
Jason14h is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2017, 12:54 PM   #1014
habernac
Franchise Player
 
habernac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: sector 7G
Exp:
Default

Ken RosenthalVerified account
‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: #BlueJays, Bautista have deal: One year, mutual option, pending physical. Announcement expected later in week. @BProToronto first.
habernac is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to habernac For This Useful Post:
Old 01-17-2017, 01:26 PM   #1015
Lil Pedro
First Line Centre
 
Lil Pedro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Good, glad it's done. He's still a power bat who also draws a ton of walks. I (like everyone here) don't love him in RF but sometimes you have to take the good with the bad. Glad it's not a 5 year term either.
Lil Pedro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2017, 01:30 PM   #1016
Parallex
I believe in the Jays.
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason14h View Post
Remember when the Flames held onto Iginla and Kipper hoping to make one last run at it/make playoffs.

This is essentially what the Jays are doing.
Rebuilds work differently in Baseball. It's hard to tank your way to a playoff calibre team in baseball since every player is just one small part of the team (The best hitter gets only marginally more AB then the worst, the best pitcher starts roughly the same number of times as the worst) and draft picks, even high ones, are so hit'n'miss.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason14h View Post
Tulo, Martin, Happ, Estrada have very nice/some value right now. They won't in 2 years and/or be FA's
I would argue that Tulo and Martin have little trade value. They make 20M per season... their deals were backloaded and now the cheque for the cheaper front half are coming due. If Happ is worth it then he'll get a qualifying offer so really the only one of those four that they'd need to make a decision on is Estrada and regardless of how well it seems to work for him I don't see MLB general managers clamoring to trade for a soft tossing righty.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason14h View Post
Unless they add 2 impact bullpen arms (Are any even left) This is goes into next season worst then this season, while our main competition got better.
Bullpen pieces are such a small part of teams. The Jays need a decent lefty (Blevins maybe)... that's it.
Parallex is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Parallex For This Useful Post:
Old 01-17-2017, 01:31 PM   #1017
JiriHrdina
I believe in the Pony Power
 
JiriHrdina's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason14h View Post
Remember when the Flames held onto Iginla and Kipper hoping to make one last run at it/make playoffs.

This is essentially what the Jays are doing.

Tulo, Martin, Happ, Estrada have very nice/some value right now. They won't in 2 years and/or be FA's

Unless they add 2 impact bullpen arms (Are any even left) This is goes into next season worst then this season, while our main competition got better.
I think there is truth to this but what some fans, and perhaps management struggles with, is that re-builds in baseball have far more risk. Or maybe that's just my perception.
How many deals where you trade off a productive major leaguer results in a return of great prospects - all of whom end up being nothing.
The Doc trade comes to mind.
JiriHrdina is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2017, 01:58 PM   #1018
HappyGilmore
Backup Goalie
 
HappyGilmore's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Exp:
Default

Can't really get upset about this deal. They are better with him. Really hope he can have a turn around season.
__________________
Hey, why don't I just go eat some hay, make things out of clay, lay by the bay? I just may! What'd ya say?
HappyGilmore is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2017, 02:03 PM   #1019
Parallex
I believe in the Jays.
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Exp:
Default

Some details leaking out about Bautista's deal. 18M Guaranteed with options (no word on what type of options... probably mutual but we'll see) that could bring it to 3y/60m.
Parallex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2017, 02:05 PM   #1020
Cappy
First Line Centre
 
Cappy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason14h View Post
Remember when the Flames held onto Iginla and Kipper hoping to make one last run at it/make playoffs.

This is essentially what the Jays are doing.

Tulo, Martin, Happ, Estrada have very nice/some value right now. They won't in 2 years and/or be FA's

Unless they add 2 impact bullpen arms (Are any even left) This is goes into next season worst then this season, while our main competition got better.
So you want to trade them right now?

I agree that holding on to players too long can bite you (Hello Phillies), but I am sure the team's rationale is that the money flows when the team is competitive. They had some pretty lean years attendance wise before the win streak. Unlike the Flames, a baseball rebuild in Toronto isnt guaranteed to attract sell outs.

I don't think they need impact arms in the pen, and worst case they can find those as the season progresses.

If Boston wins 100 games, the jays don't need to win 101 to be in the playoffs. A WC game is still a viable option at this point.
Cappy is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:13 AM.

Calgary Flames
2023-24




Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright Calgarypuck 2021