Is it possible for the Flames to win the Pacific?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Realistically they have to win 3/4 to have a chance unless the other shoe drops for this team and they finally hit a rough patch. Really it's going to be tooth and nail all the way to the end just to make the playoffs as the Sharks as annoying as they are (seriously when are they going to decline?) aren't going anywhere and the first team in this tight pack of teams that goes on a prolonged slump will probably be on the outside looking in.

But you believe that that first team to go on a slump will not be the Sharks? Why is that? When I watch them I am mystified by how many points they have accumulated, because they really don’t look much better than an average team. The Sharks actually appear to me like perfect candidates to slip in this race first. It happened to them last year with a better roster, why not again this season?

[Insane_Flame]

I agree with this. I my second pick to hit the skids, and it can be argued they already have, is the Kings. Both these teams stink of mediocre play. perhaps the kings had something in the first half but since then, they have really struggled to regain form. Maybe they are just getting worn down. Who knows? Quick doesn't seem to carry the same consistency he once did either.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

But you believe that that first team to go on a slump will not be the Sharks? Why is that? When I watch them I am mystified by how many points they have accumulated, because they really don’t look much better than an average team. The Sharks actually appear to me like perfect candidates to slip in this race first. It happened to them last year with a better roster, why not again this season?

Where did I say that? I just said they weren't going anywhere which is not the same as saying I believe they are immune to a slump. Like you I don't think they are a great team. However like Vegas as long as they continue to win I'm not going to assume they can't keep it up. There's a good chance that by the beginning of March a few of these closely bunched teams will have fallen off the pace and I don't pretend to know which team that may be because it could be any of them. A lot of fans of teams the Flames are competing with believe the Flames will go cold after their hot streak and fall off so all these fan bases can look at the opposition and make cases to why they may fall off the pace just as we can make cases why a team like the Kings or Sharks may.

[Corral]

96 points looks like it will be the threshold to get in this year with the strength of central teams. So the Flames need to play 0.568 just to get in. Goes to show you - once again - the damage inflicted by a slow start. First place is out of reach - the Flames will inevitably have a soft patch between now and April. I predict we finish 3rd in the division. the nasty bit this year is the 4th place pacific team will likely miss the playoffs.

Still a bubble team for a couple years yet. After that, we go on a run of 1st place finishes.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Corral

96 points looks like it will be the threshold to get in this year with the strength of central teams. So the Flames need to play 0.568 just to get in. Goes to show you - once again - the damage inflicted by a slow start. First place is out of reach - the Flames will inevitably have a soft patch between now and April. I predict we finish 3rd in the division. the nasty bit this year is the 4th place pacific team will likely miss the playoffs.

Still a bubble team for a couple years yet. After that, we go on a run of 1st place finishes.

Except third place in the Pacific isn't "bubble".

[jaikorven]

IMO it is impossible to say with absolutes that we are not able to be 1st in the Pacific or completely miss the POs at this time. I prefer to think we will be closer to 1st than to miss though.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by Corral

96 points looks like it will be the threshold to get in this year with the strength of central teams. So the Flames need to play 0.568 just to get in. Goes to show you - once again - the damage inflicted by a slow start. First place is out of reach - the Flames will inevitably have a soft patch between now and April. I predict we finish 3rd in the division. the nasty bit this year is the 4th place pacific team will likely miss the playoffs.

Still a bubble team for a couple years yet. After that, we go on a run of 1st place finishes.

So you are saying in the rest of the season the Flames can actually play worse (.568) than they have so far (.600) and make the playoffs? I like that.

[Robbob]

Of course there is a chance. it is 7 points over a span of 35+ games. Vegas is not going to continue at a 1.40 points per game clip for the entire year. The Flames just made up 10 points on LA in the last 10 games.

The key is the number of games. Essentially if you split the 4 game series you are looking at 1 more win then Vegas every 8 games.

[Corral]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Except third place in the Pacific isn't "bubble".

IMHO you are a bubble team if you finish in the neighbourhood of 96 points - it doesn't matter to me what seed or position those 96 points land you. And I expect the Flames to finish at or near 96 points this year.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Corral

IMHO you are a bubble team if you finish in the neighbourhood of 96 points - it doesn't matter to me what seed or position those 96 points land you. And I expect the Flames to finish at or near 96 points this year.

Don't tell the Snek, but currently based on ppg so far this season the cut off is 98 points for a playoff spot. I am sure things will eventually settle as all the western conference teams start playing each other down the stretch.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Don't tell the Snek, but currently based on ppg so far this season the cut off is 98 points for a playoff spot. I am sure things will eventually settle as all the western conference teams start playing each other down the stretch.

Here is another chart which shows the projected playoff cutoff to be 96 points.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Don't tell the Snek, but currently based on ppg so far this season the cut off is 98 points for a playoff spot. I am sure things will eventually settle as all the western conference teams start playing each other down the stretch.

According to that chart you'd only need 95 points to make it. If LA dropped to 95 points, they'd still beat out Minnesota....well maybe they might need 96, depending on how you do the rounding/tie breakers.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Corral

96 points looks like it will be the threshold to get in this year with the strength of central teams. So the Flames need to play 0.568 just to get in. Goes to show you - once again - the damage inflicted by a slow start. First place is out of reach - the Flames will inevitably have a soft patch between now and April. I predict we finish 3rd in the division. the nasty bit this year is the 4th place pacific team will likely miss the playoffs...

I seriously doubt it. The Central teams have all still played only half of their intra-divisional schedule, and these games will govern how many points they can all accumulate. Besides, there does not seem to be a lot of separation between the top five teams in either division. The difference is at the bottom, where all of Edmonton, Arizona, and Vancouver are clearly awful. But if anything, this probably improves the chances of two Pacific Division teams in the WC spots, by virtue of the fact that the other five all have the benefit of playing these terrible teams more often.

Still a bubble team for a couple years yet. After that, we go on a run of 1st place finishes.

A couple years? No. There is a very good chance that the Flames finish with a home-ice playoff spot this season. With how the roster is shaped I see no reason why topping the Division should not be a reasonable expectation next year.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Corral

IMHO you are a bubble team if you finish in the neighbourhood of 96 points - it doesn't matter to me what seed or position those 96 points land you. And I expect the Flames to finish at or near 96 points this year.

So, if a team wins their Division with 98 points they still qualify as a bubble team? Or from another view, in a year in which the playoff cutoff is much lower—like in 2015–16 when it was +82 points in the West, does this not also affect the definition of a "bubble team"?

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by blankall

According to that chart you'd only need 95 points to make it. If LA dropped to 95 points, they'd still beat out Minnesota....well maybe they might need 96, depending on how you do the rounding/tie breakers.

the chart is sorted by current points. If you look at the projected Colorado is on pace for 97. They have more games in hand.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Robbob

the chart is sorted by current points. If you look at the projected Colorado is on pace for 97. They have more games in hand.

Ah, I missed that too.

[Insane_Flame]

I would call a bubble team any team that finishes within 3 or so points of what it would take to qualify for a playoff spot that particular year. I always thought of the descriptor as a way of describing a teams ability to contend. A bubble team obviously being one of the least competitive out of teams who make the playoffs. That being said with todays parity I don't see it as much of a disadvantage.

[Corral]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

So, if a team wins their Division with 98 points they still qualify as a bubble team? Or from another view, in a year in which the playoff cutoff is much lower—like in 2015–16 when it was +82 points in the West, does this not also affect the definition of a "bubble team"?

Yes i still think 96 points is a good rule of thumb for identifying a bubble team. A 0.585 winning percentage in a league where 1/2 the teams make the playoffs. There will be exceptional years for sure - but on average its 96 points - as Snek proclaims. If the Flames were to win the Pacific with 98 points I would feel we won the division in an exceedingly weak year.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I seriously doubt it. The Central teams have all still played only half of their intra-divisional schedule, and these games will govern how many points they can all accumulate. Besides, there does not seem to be a lot of separation between the top five teams in either division. The difference is at the bottom, where all of Edmonton, Arizona, and Vancouver are clearly awful. But if anything, this probably improves the chances of two Pacific Division teams in the WC spots, by virtue of the fact that the other five all have the benefit of playing these terrible teams more often.

[/I]
A couple years? No. There is a very good chance that the Flames finish with a home-ice playoff spot this season. With how the roster is shaped I see no reason why topping the Division should not be a reasonable expectation next year.

You might want to look at the Oilers record in the division...

[driveway]

Flames have 37 games remaining. Of those 9 are against divison opponents we're fighting for playoff spots with - or chasing for the division lead.
LAK - 2
VGK - 4
SJS - 2
ANA - 1

We also play 5 games against Central Division teams we might have to battle for wild card spots.
DAL - 1
COL - 2
CHI - 2

So that's 14 games agaisnt playoff or division competition, and 23 against the rest. We win those 23 agains the 'rest' and we finish with 100 points, which should be enough to get in.

Interestingly, we play very few games against our playoff competition in February. We have one divisional game the whole month (VGK) and then play all of our Central Division 'foes.' It's March, and in particular the second half of March where suddenly the Pacific Division rears its head. From March 13 to the end of the season we play 8 of 12 games against the Pacific, though two are against the Oil.

If we go streaking through February, those late March games may not end up mattering that much as we could well have salted away a playoff spot.

On the other hand, if we do hit a rough patch - and February is going to be tough, 12 of 15 games against teams currently in the playoffs and 2 games against Chicago - having that string of interdivisional games at the end of the year would be a last-ditch chance to make the dance.