Draft lottery - change in process

[Jiri Hrdina]

Hey folks
As we have posted, our approach to the draft lottery is simply to use the NHL one and assign CPHL teams to the corresponding NHL teams and let the lottery from the NHL dictate our order on that basis. Last year we did not do this because the NHL followed a different process due to COVID.
It occurred to me last night that we again can't use their lottery, because of two factors
- The inclusion of Seattle into the NHL lottery
- The bigger one - Phoenix pick being voided. With this - if Phoenix wins the NHL lottery they have stated that the lottery will be re-run. This means whoever matches Phoenix with our standings could similarly also not win the lottery.

So here's how I propose we handle
- Use a draft lottery simulator (http://www.tankathon.com/nhl) like we did last year
- Assign CPHL teams to NHL teams as we already do, including Phoenix but excluding Seattle.
- This means that we just skip Seattle in the results. For instance of Seattle wins the #2 overall pick in our lottery, we just skip it because no team will be assigned to them, and the #3 team will pick #2.
- We can run the lottery on the same day as the NHL (Wed June 2nd)
- I can set up a zoom call to have a few people "witness" the lottery being simmed live.


Any questions or concerns with this?

[Harry Lime]

Might I suggest that if Seattle wins the lottery, then that pass is void and we run another one? If Seattle is a non-entity, it should have no bearing on the results.

[Hanna Sniper]

That site favour bad odds, it’s click generated and not realistic odds. It’s stupid using it. It’s bad enough we did it last year

Just assign a team to Seattle and none to Phoenix

[Swayze11]

As long as the odds are the same on the website I don’t see an issue.

[Cheese]

I'm good with the majority and the Pens winning the lottery!

[BagoPucks]

Doug, what do you mean click generated?

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Might I suggest that if Seattle wins the lottery, then that pass is void and we run another one? If Seattle is a non-entity, it should have no bearing on the results.

Yeah this is probably a better way of handling the Seattle part.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by BagoPucks

Doug, what do you mean click generated?

Yeah would like to understand this too as my understanding is that the site replicates the NHL odds. If that's not the case - would like to understand where it differs. Not assigning a team to Phoenix doesn't work because that means that the team that should be assigned to Phoenix will have different odds than they should have.

[Flickered Flame]

I have always said we should get rid of the lottery, the lowest team in the standings should get first pick. I think it would help with spreading assets out as there can be quite a difference from first overall to 2nd or 3rd or lower.

Now, I would also say, because eliminating the lottery draft is not likely, our results should not be tied to the NHL results. There must be a site where we can generate our own lotto results?

[BagoPucks]

Are we doing picks like the nhl? One One the 1st ov and the 2nd for 2nd ov?

[simmer2]

Originally Posted by Flickered Flame

I have always said we should get rid of the lottery, the lowest team in the standings should get first pick. I think it would help with spreading assets out as there can be quite a difference from first overall to 2nd or 3rd or lower.

Now, I would also say, because eliminating the lottery draft is not likely, our results should not be tied to the NHL results. There must be a site where we can generate our own lotto results?

This isn't necessarily true, rightly or wrongly.

Look at the Top 10 picks and how many have been traded. Its largely a lottery among the best teams in the league.

[SportsJunky]

I don't really have a horse in the race this year (my picks don't start until the 4th round) but I'd like to see the lottery stay in place now and in the future. The tanking that will occur for the 2022 and 2023 draft otherwise will be legendary.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Flickered Flame

I have always said we should get rid of the lottery, the lowest team in the standings should get first pick. I think it would help with spreading assets out as there can be quite a difference from first overall to 2nd or 3rd or lower.

That would be the case if the team that owns the pick is the one at the bottom of the standings - but that's rarely the case.
Oops point already made by simmer.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by BagoPucks

Are we doing picks like the nhl? One One the 1st ov and the 2nd for 2nd ov?

Sorry I don't understand this question.

[BagoPucks]

The NHL used to draw three times for the top 3 picks. Now they are picking twice with the restrictions mentioned below:


The restriction on teams moving up more than 10 places in the first round means the bottom 11 teams in the standings are eligible to win the No. 1 pick. The bottom 12 teams would then be eligible for the No. 2 pick if one of them doesn't win the first drawing.

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-draft-l...21/c-322838154

[Jiri Hrdina]

No the way the sims work is they just generate a list based on the overall odds.
The restriction of only moving up 10 places doesn't come into effect until next year.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Might be helpful to do a mock one to see if this makes sense.

I'm using this order. First teams(s) are the CPHL ones, and then showing what it maps to in the NHL standings

1. NEW JERSEY* - NHL Buffalo
2. MONTREAL (from NY ISLANDERS)* - NHL Anaheim
3. WASHINGTON (from COLUMBUS) - NHL NJ
4. TAMPA BAY - NHL CBJ
5. CAROLINA - NHL Detroit
6. MINNESOTA (from CALGARY) - NHL SJ
7. WASHINGTON- NHL LA
8. PITTSBURGH (from FLORIDA)- NHL Vancouver
9. MONTREAL - NHL Ottawa
10. VANCOUVER (from DALLAS) - NHL Arizona
11. MINNESOTA (from TORONTO) - NHL Chicago
12. COLORADO (from ST. LOUIS) - NHL Calgary
13. CALGARY (from OTTAWA) - NHL Philly
14. VANCOUVER - NHL Dallas
15. LOS ANGELES - NHL NYR
======
OK so then I did the sim and got this (first team listed is the NHL team as produced by the draft sim)

1. Anaheim - Maps to NYI pick owned by Montreal
2. Ottawa - Maps to Montreal pick owned by Montreal
3. Buffalo - Maps to NJ pick, owned by NJ
*Seattle Skipped*
4. NJ - Maps to CBJ pick owned by Washington
5. CBJ - Maps to T-bay pick owned by T-bay
6. Detroit - Maps to Carolina pick owned by Carolina
7. San Jose - Maps to Calgary pick owned by Minnesota
8. LA - Maps to Washington pick owned by Washington
9. Vancouver - Maps to Pitt pick owned by Florida
10. Arizona - Maps to Dallas picked owned by Van
11. Chicago - Maps to Toronto pick owned by Minny
12. Calgary - Maps to St Louis pick owned by Colorado
13. Philly- Maps to Ottawa pick owned by Calgary
14. Dallas - Maps to Vancouver pick owned by Vancouver
15. NYR - Maps to LA pick owned by LA

That's how it would work. Does that make sense?

[Swayze11]

Sorry I must be misunderstanding. Why are we skipping the Seattle pick?

The mapping should include the Seattle pick. Does Seattle have bumped odds that I am unaware of? If not, how do you take Seattle out of the website?

[Goffie]

I really dislike these sites, I agree with Doug that it is a lot more frequent than not that a late team comes up and grabs the top pick. I play around with this site a bit and rarely do the top 3 teams win the lottery. For example I did 15 simulations and reset after each one and one of the top two teams only won once.

I do understand the coyote dilemma however as that makes it tough for us to do anything but use a simulator.

It’s a tough year for sure.

[Flickered Flame]

I haven't played around with it but would something like this work? You can set the weighting for each team or customize it. Not sure if it would work, just trying to help find a solution.

https://www.draftpicklottery.com/index.php