Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by Slava

The Wall Street Journal has a report tonight that TC is committing to spend $1.7bn on wind, solar and battery power to run the pipeline as well as hire union labour to build it. They say they’ll eliminate all greenhouse gas from the project by 2030. Trudeau has said this is one of his top priorities with the Biden administration and the ambassador to the US noted that emissions from the oilsands have dropped by 1/3rd since 2000.

The unions in the US are onside, and it will be quite interesting to see how this plays out. I hope it’s not dead, and it might not be with these new measures.

In the article it said it’s on the transition documents. Its incoming unless something major happens.

I appreciate what you said, but Biden and Obama killed it for pure politics last time. I think you’re just helping illustrate the hypocrisy.

Regardless we could have had a pipe approved in Canada we control and put conditions on green power. Instead we are hoping a foreign power with little to lose and a lot to politically gain will do us a solid.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

In the article it said it’s on the transition documents. Its incoming unless something major happens.

I appreciate what you said, but Biden and Obama killed it for pure politics last time. I think you’re just helping illustrate the hypocrisy.

Regardless we could have had a pipe approved in Canada we control and put conditions on green power. Instead we are hoping a foreign power with little to lose and a lot to politically gain will do us a solid.

Well I’m just holding out hope until it’s official I guess. But the commitment to spend that much on “green energy” is a big deal. Who knows if that’s enough to pull it out of the fire though.

[Ducay]

Everyone sh|ts on the right until they realize how insanely stupid and short sighted the left's policies actually are when they finally get power. Economic policies designed simply to score social points (which this one is a perfect example of) are the literal worst. This getting cancelled is a net negative for the environment.

Oh well, I mean, if we can keep Line 5 and TMX chugging along, the oil price spike once US shale fraking is effectively nerfed will be quite nice. US can shoot their own foot at our (and Russia/Saudi's) benefit I guess, it'll win them a few more bleeding heart votes.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by Bunk

It seems as though a lot of the world feels about oil the way a lot of Albertans feel about coal mining on the Eastern Slopes.

aka the Vancouver principal. Ex: I am totally for something that I poorly understand and feel it doesn’t impact my life. I am happy to vote for politicians that pander to my ignorance, because it makes me feel better.

I didn’t support the NDP doing what they did with coal. Its not because I don’t believe in a green future, rather we need to transition this properly. Alarmism only makes those with vested interests richer.

So we don’t want Keystone? Fine, but Obama can tell you about all the pipe he got built during his term to rich backers. None of it made our lives on earth better. Rather people that aren’t Canadians got richer.

Its sad because the problems the US is facing is a result of this stuff. One side trying to cancel out the other and it’s getting worse. Makes it easy for a Trump to rise and pretend he is the savior.

[CaptainCrunch]

Line 5 will probably be shut in about 100 days. As much as Enbridge has said they'll ignore the shutdown by the Governor, its going to be shut down, and if Biden shuts down TMX, we're completely hooped.


Ontario and Quebec will be toast, their gas and heating costs will skyrocket and they won't be able to get Oil from the West in the quantities that they will need, unless we ramp up freighter shipments from Vancouver to Ottawa and truck and rail (great for emissions).


We've in a short period killed our own access to market or seen it killed, and given up our energy independence.

[CaptainCrunch]

BTW and maybe because this news pisses me off, but even though I believe that the F-35 is the far superior fighter and will offer better bang for the buck, I'd be all for cancelling any thought of purchasing the F-35 in exchange for buying some nice SU-57 Felons :P

[Weitz]

Nice to see Notley taking laps on the likely cancellation of Keystone on Twitter.

[DiracSpike]

It's far from a sure thing that line 5 gets shut down. But if it does...things get pretty interesting quickly. There's two scenarios:

1: Ontario and Quebec can lean on the annoying reality that their geography affords them luxuries I'd kill for Alberta to have, namely waterway access and all the flexibility in importing/exporting that comes with it. Can shortfall in supply simply be made up by sourcing more american/middle eastern tankers to sail up the st lawrence and deliver crude? In that case not much changes for them but we lose 500,000bbl/d in capacity, and I doubt anyone in canada would give a ####. This would be the pessimistic scenario.

2: They can't efficiently source crude supplies, and the resulting reality of check of out of control gas prices and grounded flights in the part of Canada that actually matters, combined with a murdered KXL that's already ~5% of the way completed in the SE direction is a perfect opportunity to build the no-brainer project we should have been constructing all along.

Given everything that's happened in the last 12 years im more expecting scenario 1 to unfold.

[Roughneck]

Good to know TC is willing to offset GHGs for pipelines now, as that’s why they walked away from Energy East.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Roughneck

Good to know TC is willing to offset GHGs for pipelines now, as that’s why they walked away from Energy East.

Is it? I heard that it was wasn’t the feds or anyone’s fault, just that it was straight up uneconomic.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Bunk

It seems as though a lot of the world feels about oil the way a lot of Albertans feel about coal mining on the Eastern Slopes.

They may feel that way but hot damn if they don’t use an absolutely disgustingly monstrous amount of it. But feel away world!

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Is it? I heard that it was wasn’t the feds or anyone’s fault, just that it was straight up uneconomic.

I think that’s what made it uneconomic.

But with the costs of green energy constantly changing, it would be interesting to know what the difference is 7+ years on.

[Boreal]

https://www.greatlakesnow.org/2021/0...-oil-pipeline/

Here’s the most recent news.

[PaperBagger'14]

Originally Posted by Roughneck

I think that’s what made it uneconomic.

But with the costs of green energy constantly changing, it would be interesting to know what the difference is 7+ years on.

People were thinking the same thing 5 years ago when I last did a solar feasibility study, it wasn't good then and isn't good now.

Green energy hinges on high capacity energy storage because of its lack of consistent availability. I really hope to see the day where we can store enough energy to make green energy more than a pipe dream.

[Locke]

Its like we've learned nothing from the COVID pandemic.

"Maybe we should be more self-reliant?"

Nope.

Why is the US comfortable killing the pipeline? Because they're mostly energy self-sufficient.

We could be too....we're just too goddamned stupid.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Everyone sh|ts on the right until they realize how insanely stupid and short sighted the left's policies actually are when they finally get power. Economic policies designed simply to score social points (which this one is a perfect example of) are the literal worst.

You are presenting a false dichotomy if you're suggesting the right doesn't do that too (e.g. Harper GST cut).

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Locke

Its like we've learned nothing from the COVID pandemic.

"Maybe we should be more self-reliant?"

Nope.

Why is the US comfortable killing the pipeline? Because they're mostly energy self-sufficient.

We could be too....we're just too goddamned stupid.

I've been calling for a realistic, unified, national strategy for a while now in Canada. For lack of a better term we need a new National Energy Program that actually allows for continued hydrocarbon development in Canada, new transportation options, energy security and affordability and alternative energy research and development. Unfortunately we haven't had the leadership to undertake such a policy decision due to partisan politics and it is beginning to bite us and it will hurt the nation as whole in the future.

I've said it before and I know that a lot of people disagree with me and laugh at me but I think that a cornerstone of the new energy strategy is going to be in nationalizing parts of the energy industry. The ability to get natural resources developed in the west to supply the east shouldn't be a civil war type of battle. It needs to be viewed on a national scale as opposed to regionally.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I've been calling for a realistic, unified, national strategy for a while now in Canada. For lack of a better term we need a new National Energy Policy that actually allows for continued hydrocarbon development in Canada, new transportation options, energy security and affordability and alternative energy research and development. Unfortunately we haven't had the leadership to undertake such a policy decision due to partisan politics and it is beginning to bite us and it will hurt the nation as whole in the future.

I've said it before and I know that a lot of people disagree with me and laugh at me but I think that a cornerstone of the new energy strategy is going to be in nationalizing parts of the energy industry. The ability to get natural resources developed in the west to supply the east shouldn't be a civil war type of battle. It needs to be viewed on a national scale as opposed to regionally.

I mostly agree with you up to a point and that point is the bolded.

I dont know how you could even suggest that frankly. Considering that one of the main reasons we need this kind of policy and structure is because the Federal structure has failed spectacularly. I mean, we're talking about staggering incompetence and stupidity on an almost unprecedented scale.

What would be the incentive to handing those clowns the keys?

They're the Lion's share of the reason we're in this mess to begin with.

[Manhattanboy]

Obama’s dishonesty cost TC hundreds of millions.

If Biden is serious about killing KXL, which by all accounts he is, better he does it on day one.

Be done with it already. But make no mistake this is a disaster for Alberta.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Obama’s dishonesty cost TC hundreds of millions.

If Biden is serious about killing KXL, which by all accounts he is, better he does it on day one.

Be done with it already. But make no mistake this is a disaster for Alberta.

And whats a disaster for Alberta is a disaster for Canada. Whether the rest of them choose to acknowledge it or not.