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Old 10-21-2018, 12:02 PM   #141
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Originally Posted by Two Fivenagame View Post
I feel like I've seen this same story the last few years:

Flames play entertaining run-n-gun hockey, but get lit up by stronger opposition. The coach then has to rein in the players and force them to stick to a boring defensive system that seems to choke the fun out of the game.

I really hope Peters can find that magical blend of winning hockey games by playing a strong defensive system that's still entertaining.

Is that too much to ask?
I don't think so.

When I coach I love the pinch, but it only works if the F3 realizes it's coming and moved back towards the blueline to cover. If you have a F3 leaning in wanting to be part of a goal mouth scramble with the assumption of a defender winning a pinch you risk the odd man rush the other way.

They win some of these gambles and with that they get more zone time and pressure ... this is why they tend to out shoot and out corsi teams.

But the real high danger stuff is to 50/50 right now and likely not even that when you get down the split inside that definition of high danger because a two on one is more dangerous than a generic home plate shot off a pass.

I doubt they're coaching their forwards to overload while the D is pinching so it's a read and reaction failure between forwards and individually that's killing them.
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Old 10-21-2018, 12:12 PM   #142
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Here are the splits in goals for and against in the categories.

Goals scored off of "scoring chances"
12-15

Goals scored off of "high danger shot attempts"
9-13

Goals scored off of "medium danger shot attempts"
3-2

Goals scored off of "low danger shot attempts"
3-0

Shooting and Save Percentage

Shooting and Save Percentage "scoring chances"
12.1% / 84.5% / 96.7% underwater, ranked 23rd

Shooting and Save Percentage "high danger shot attempts"
16.1% / 78.3% / 94.4% well underwater, ranked 24th

Shooting and Save Percentage "medium danger shot attempts"
7.0% / 94.5% / 101.6% doing well, ranked 12th

Shooting and Save Percentage "low danger shot attempts"
5.1% / 100.0% / 105.1% Killing it, ranked 3rd
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Old 10-21-2018, 12:21 PM   #143
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Nearly 10% into the season with Mike Smith in the midst of a well-below-average stretch of hockey, and we’re positioned as a bubble team.

I have to agree with the posters that suggest this is a problem for free agency to solve. I fully expect Smith to gravitate back towards average, with stretches above it blended in.
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Old 10-21-2018, 12:23 PM   #144
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Same 4-3-0 start as last year...
Ha! Well then, I stand corrected. Last season was so abysmal, I must have purged it from my memory, lol.

This team just feels different I guess. They're so much more fun to watch compared to Gulutzan's teams.
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Old 10-21-2018, 12:28 PM   #145
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Brodie isn't a problem in those counts.

the ones he's made of late are demonstrative, but his counts don't suggest he's the biggest culprit, he's 9th of 18 skaters with ice time to date in terms of high danger against per 60 minutes

However he and Giordano are 3rd and 4th in this stat for defensemen, and I'm guessing Brodie is pulling Giordano down a bit, while Giordano is pulling Brodie up, something that can't be ignored.

Interesting to note ... Rasmus Andersson is #1 on the team for NOT giving up blue chip chances
Brodie's are the most demonstrative because they are the most egregious. They are ending up in the back of the net.

Hard to ignore the difference between stone getting shelled and Brodie pooing his pants is that Brodie having a pants poo ends up in the net moments later.
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Old 10-21-2018, 12:52 PM   #146
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Brodie's are the most demonstrative because they are the most egregious. They are ending up in the back of the net.
Brodie is on the ice for 2.02 5v5 goals against / 60 minutes <- or about one every 29:43 of ice time

Stone is on the ice for 3.19 5v5 goals against / 60 minutes <- or about one for every 18:48 of ice time

Whose are ending up in the back of the net, again?

Yes, Brodie has gotten scored on by guys like Ryan Johansen and Nathan MacKinnon. Guess what, those are really good hockey players and equivalent to their teams' versions of Monahan, and in MacKinnon's case he's basically Gaudreau + Monahan combined. They're expected to score when they get chances. Stone has the fortune of playing against other teams' Stajans and Hathaways who are expected to shank chances and shoot right into the goalie's crest.
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Old 10-21-2018, 01:06 PM   #147
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I wonder if Janko would have enough value to be bundled with a 1st to get a top goalie (bob or Varlamov)? Only reason I say this is his game hasn’t really improved and he’s getting limited minutes. If he’s got value it may be a good time to move him.
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Old 10-21-2018, 01:09 PM   #148
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Janko and a first and smith could likely get you either of bobrovsky (knowing he’s only a rental) or price.

I feel like price is worth it, he’s had terrible D in front of him and is still young enough to be a solid elite goalie for next 4 years.

Smith is trash
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Old 10-21-2018, 01:14 PM   #149
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Janko and a first and smith could likely get you either of bobrovsky (knowing he’s only a rental) or price.

I feel like price is worth it, he’s had terrible D in front of him and is still young enough to be a solid elite goalie for next 4 years.

Smith is trash
Columbus thinks they are a playoff team. They will never entertain an offer like that.

Montreal is isn't, but that would be a huge trade for Montreal to enter into after just extending him. Plus they're off to a good start.

Little dramatic to call Smith trash.
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Old 10-21-2018, 01:19 PM   #150
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I could see the Flames targeting Varlamov. My guess is that Rittich and a 3rd would get him in the right context.

Varlamov is 30 and a UFA. The Avs won't want to pay him with a lot of important RFAs due for a pay day and Grubauer playing well. If the Avs are out at the deadline this could happen.

That said, they stay in a playoff spot we might not see a deal from the Flames at all.
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Old 10-21-2018, 01:22 PM   #151
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I doubt Price goes anywhere until the Habs start to suck. As much sense as it makes to trade him, the fanbase has a lot of influence out there and trading their best (?) Player when they have a winning record would bring out some serious pitchforks.

Bobrovski as a rental makes a lot of sense (assuming he waives his NMC).

I would want to see how Schneider recovers from hip surgery before taking that contract on, but if he returns to form I would bet he's available. Kinkaid is carrying the load and he's dirt cheap, so knowing Jersey he's likely the one who stays.

Still wish we landed Fleury. Although I'm sure that would have resulted in subtraction somewhere else. Smith clearly isn't cutting it.
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Old 10-21-2018, 01:24 PM   #152
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I also don't think we can wait until the deadline. If Smith regresses and our back ups can't get it done we aren't even in a playoff spot at that point.

We either roll the dice with what we have, or we make a change ASAP.
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Old 10-21-2018, 01:33 PM   #153
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I also don't think we can wait until the deadline. If Smith regresses and our back ups can't get it done we aren't even in a playoff spot at that point.

We either roll the dice with what we have, or we make a change ASAP.
Acquiring a new number one early in the season would be near impossible
The goalie carousel happens in the off season
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Old 10-21-2018, 01:34 PM   #154
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Would love to get Henrik Lundqvist here but I don't think he would lift his NMC to come to Calgary. A veteran guy who has won everything but a Stanley Cup playing on a team going nowhere.
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Old 10-21-2018, 01:36 PM   #155
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Originally Posted by GranteedEV View Post
Brodie is on the ice for 2.02 5v5 goals against / 60 minutes <- or about one every 29:43 of ice time

Stone is on the ice for 3.19 5v5 goals against / 60 minutes <- or about one for every 18:48 of ice time

Whose are ending up in the back of the net, again?

Yes, Brodie has gotten scored on by guys like Ryan Johansen and Nathan MacKinnon. Guess what, those are really good hockey players and equivalent to their teams' versions of Monahan, and in MacKinnon's case he's basically Gaudreau + Monahan combined. They're expected to score when they get chances. Stone has the fortune of playing against other teams' Stajans and Hathaways who are expected to shank chances and shoot right into the goalie's crest.
I think this is largely a fault of the “eye test.” Yeah, Brodie makes mistakes that end up in the net, but as you’ve pointed out, Brodie and his mistakes are still safer than Stone without.

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Smith is trash
I just don’t understand this. The two categories are not “elite and trash,” those are the extremes. Smith is an average NHL starter. That means he’ll understandably have performances that are both above and below what we should consider “average.”

I’m absolutely FOR the argument that we can’t be Cup contenders with just average goaltending, we need a guy that plays above it the majority of the time. But by no means does that make Smith trash.
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Old 10-21-2018, 01:38 PM   #156
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Originally Posted by GranteedEV View Post
Brodie is on the ice for 2.02 5v5 goals against / 60 minutes <- or about one every 29:43 of ice time

Stone is on the ice for 3.19 5v5 goals against / 60 minutes <- or about one for every 18:48 of ice time

Whose are ending up in the back of the net, again?

Yes, Brodie has gotten scored on by guys like Ryan Johansen and Nathan MacKinnon. Guess what, those are really good hockey players and equivalent to their teams' versions of Monahan, and in MacKinnon's case he's basically Gaudreau + Monahan combined. They're expected to score when they get chances. Stone has the fortune of playing against other teams' Stajans and Hathaways who are expected to shank chances and shoot right into the goalie's crest.
You are basically quoting plus/minus stats. I just don’t think you can deny that Brodie has made several bad, bad plays/decisions that directly led to a goal. Now I actually think he has played quite well at times, but not all high danger chances are equal or can be attributed so much to one player. Brodie has had high profile breakdowns that ended up in the net.
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Old 10-21-2018, 02:00 PM   #157
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I just don’t think you can deny that Brodie has made several bad, bad plays/decisions that directly led to a goal.
Every damn goal in the NHL is due to bad plays and decisions.

You wanna break down his goals against? Okay, let's do it.


Nathan MacKinnon scores on Brodie
- Monahan makes a brutally soft play on the puck leading to the puck getting in the slot, where Gaudreau fails to cover the slot. Rittich then fails to redirect the puck to the corner. Brodie then gets beat to the puck by MacKinnon who snipes the rebound into the back of the net.

It took four different guys screwing up their responsibilities, and one superstar player who has 111 points in his last 82 games, for Brodie to get scored on.

J.T. Compher scores on Brodie
- Brodie is the lone Dman back on what appeared to be a line change. The puck bounces around awkwardly near Brodie's feet and he gets a step behind the play trying to find the puck, at which point there is a breakaway. **** happens. It's not like Brodie decided to whiff on the puck.

This kind of stuff happens to all Dmen, even Giordano. If that were Hamilton last year he probably even takes a penalty on top of the shot. Not sure what there is to complain about other than ****ty luck.

Ryan Johansen scores on Brodie
Brodie is trying to break the cycle, his stick gets lodged out of his hands by Johansen's skates. Backlund gets caught on the wrong side of the puck and allows a pass through to Johansen, who takes advantage of the fraction of a second Brodie needed to pick his stick back.

If you wanna blame Brodie for dropping his stick, go for it. I just think **** happens and even then, I thought Smith should have made a save on this.

Craig Smith scores on Brodie
Valimaki makes a blind pass right to Fiala, Brodie a step late with the overload, Fiala gets the pass to Turris, Lindholm caught puck-watching, spins around and lets Turris make a perfect pass to Smith, Monahan cheating defensively at the blue line

Yes on paper Brodie is the right defenseman here and maybe could have stayed at home, but we play an aggressive style, and such a style does depend on forwards and defensemen rotating in terms of responsibilities. You can blame him if you like, it's valid especially it's an overaggressive positioning on Brodie's part, but hockey is still a team sport. Ever hear the term "on a string" regarding defensive play? Teams that are good are on a string and it's not always as straightforward or simple as defensemen being defensemen and centers being centers and wingers being wingers. But even if we blame Brodie as the defenseman, he is not singlehandedly creating the chance against. Valimaki takes half a second more with the puck to make a good play and this is probably a goal at the other end of the ice. C'est la vie. Ultimately though, like that first goal against, this was a full team breakdown. And while I would call it a great chance, I also thought Smith was a bit off positionally as a lot of today's starters would have given Smith almost nothing to shoot at.

Ultimately Brodie is on the ice for fewer chances against and goals against than a good chunk of the roster, and between Turris, RyJo, and MacKinnon you can see that he's usually up against top competition when he does get scored on. He hasn't been as good as Giordano defensively and that's not a knock on him, that's just the fact that Giordano is gosh darn amazing defensively.

The idea that a player needs to go because their mistakes end up in the back of the net is naive at best. Defensemen being more responsible doesn't always have the best results, it just seems to visually please people more. Ask the Oilers about Larsson being "responsible", it's great on paper but in execution you don't get the results.

On a side note, I think the Flames are still learning Peters' system, too, up and down the roster. We're only seven games in and usually it takes fifteen-ish.
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Old 10-21-2018, 02:06 PM   #158
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I apologize for calling smith trash. But the sentiment is as follows:

The flames seem to the eye test to be a playoff team who could potentially go deep if things break right for them.

Mike smith is not an elite goalie so therefore he severely limits the odds of things breaking in our favour... I really was nervous going into the season with him and I think it’s just becoming evident that he is nowhere near elite and is in fact in the bottom 15 starters in the league.

We won’t be in a position to make playoffs if smith remains our number 1
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Old 10-21-2018, 02:10 PM   #159
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Originally Posted by GranteedEV View Post
Brodie is on the ice for 2.02 5v5 goals against / 60 minutes <- or about one every 29:43 of ice time

Stone is on the ice for 3.19 5v5 goals against / 60 minutes <- or about one for every 18:48 of ice time

Whose are ending up in the back of the net, again?

Yes, Brodie has gotten scored on by guys like Ryan Johansen and Nathan MacKinnon. Guess what, those are really good hockey players and equivalent to their teams' versions of Monahan, and in MacKinnon's case he's basically Gaudreau + Monahan combined. They're expected to score when they get chances. Stone has the fortune of playing against other teams' Stajans and Hathaways who are expected to shank chances and shoot right into the goalie's crest.
Yeah but that comparison is useless as you can argue Stone should be the 7th defenseman once Hamonic comes back. Brodie should be held to a higher standard as he's being paired on the first pairing with the team's best defender. If Hamilton was making the blunders Brodie has made this season fans would be all over him.
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Old 10-21-2018, 02:12 PM   #160
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Would love to get Henrik Lundqvist here but I don't think he would lift his NMC to come to Calgary. A veteran guy who has won everything but a Stanley Cup playing on a team going nowhere.

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up.
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