Down 7 with a minute left.. Looks like all or nothing with Argentina and they'll need some help. Not looking good for their chances of qualifying.
This game was theirs for the taking, I think Rautins missing so many wide open threes was pretty crucial but their perimeter defence was awful too, so many open looks for the Dominican shooters.
Watching international basketball is so frustrating, Scola is throwing elbows left right and center and getting away with it and Argentina's little point guard is throwing his head back and arms in the air at every contact.
Brutal ending to the tournament for them... three straight losses of very winnable games. Really sucks that they won't be playing at the worlds next year... makes it a wasted season at a time when these guys need to be getting experience at the international game. However, it does show a lot about what the program has and what they need. I'll post an updated program depth chart soon.
Obviously, there's loads being said about Wiggins, so I'm not going to put a lot into talking about him in this update, except to say that I'm on-board with the hype. I'm not convinced he's the top player in this draft-class or that he'll be an absolute superstar, but the best basketball talent Canada has ever produced? Absolutely. The attention he brings to the program could be as important as what he does on the court.
As for other Canadians in the NCAA this year:
I may have mentioned this before, but Xavier Rathan-Mayes was deemed ineligible this year, so his NCAA career will start next year. Ennis at Syracuse - generally thought that he won't be a one-and-done player, but a great year this year could change his mind. Duvuvier - reclassified to this year and is with Oregon State. Kyle Wiltjer - transferred from Kentucky and is following in Olynyk's path, redshirting at Gonzaga this year. Hanlan - really jumped up a lot of mocks this summer. Nobody had him listed at any point last year, but now both draft express and nbadraft.net have him going 20th and 34th respectively. Boston College is pretty bad, and I think he'd get even more attention playing at a more watched program. Justin Edwards - transferred from Maine to Kansas State, and will sit out this year.
The Bhullar brothers - together again as Tanveer joins Sim at New Mexico State. General consensus in the NCAA tournament was that Sim wasn't that great a prospect, but I think that ignores just how far he had come with his conditioning and other elements. But he'll need to continue to grow at a similar rate over the rest of his college career to ever make it to the next level. Stauskas at Michigan - is also starting to crop up on mocks for 2015, with draftexpress ranking him 45th. Birch at UNLV - probably declares for the draft this year, likely an early 2nd, possibly a late 1st. Powell at Stanford - is typically ranked in a similar range as Birch. But Powell's a senior, so this is a huge year for him. Pangos at Gonzaga - I think he'll get a solid look whenever he comes out of college... if not in the draft, then in summer league tryouts. Heslip at Baylor - the player that surprised me most at the Americas. Again, not convinced he'll be an NBA player, but an excellent international player. Ejim at Iowa State currently out until December with an injury. Recently I read an ESPN article that had him as a darkhorse to get to the NBA after a couple years in Europe. Rivard at Harvard - not typically seen as an NBA prospect, but could have a good international career. MullingsA junior at New Mexico State, probably projects in that 'good international' range too. Dyshawn Pierre, who's Dayton Flyers just knocked off Gonzaga and are now 5-0, with Pierre one of their leading players.
Young guys in the NBA this year: Olynyk at Boston, probably in the best situation he could have landed in. Bennett at Cleveland, probably in the worst situation he could have landed in. Really struggling right now. Nicholson at Orlando, improved by leaps and bounds last year and is posting 10 and 6 in 20 minutes per game this year. Thompson at Cleveland, will probably post a double-double this season. Sacre at LA, starting this year right on his career average of 1.3 ppg. Doubling his rebound pace from 1rpg to 2. Joseph at San Antonio, he's been brought along slowly but looks like he'll be given more of a regular role this year.
Sub-NBA pros:
Wow, is it possible to have a worse basketball year that Kabongo did? Lost half the year to suspension, failed to make the NCAA tournament, went undrafted, failed to make an impact with two different summer league teams, was cut from team Canada, and finally ended up in the d-league. At least he's with the San Antonio affiliate Austin Toros, which is probably the best place to be in the d-league.
Kris Joseph is playing in China this year. I really don't know whether China is a good place for player development. Everyone says he's got an unmatched work ethic, but obviously his game isn't there yet. I believe he'll be back on an NBA roster in a year or two, though.
Andy Rautins had a stellar d-league year last year, and then fizzled at summer league. Was good for Team Canada though. He said he wouldn't be returning to the d-league, it was either NBA or Europe. So, Frankfurt Skyliners it is!
High School:
Other than Trey Lyles it's hard to imagine any of these guys being a factor in the national program by 2016, and Lyles is unlikely to be a factor simply because he plays Canada's deepest position (PF). But Lyles and Justin Jackson are the two guys who have real star potential, ESPN ranks each of them #7 in their respective classes. Jackson is a couple years further off, but is really getting a lot of attention for his ridiculous point-forward skills. The other guys I'm keeping an eye on at this point are Chris Egi (Harvard), Marial Shayok (Marquette), Montaque Gill-Ceasar (ranked #19 by ESPN), Jamal Murray, Munis Tutu, and Dillon Brooks.
So, my updated 2016 depth chart:
C: Olynyk, Birch, Anthony, Sacre
PF: Thompson, Nicholson, Bennett, Lyles
SF: Wiggins, K. Joseph
SG: Rautins, Heslip, Stauskas
PG: C. Joseph, Hanlan, Ennis, Pangos
Big changes are that Olynyk leaps over everyone else at C, Sacre drops behind Birch. Heslip (previously unlisted) gets onto the list at SG, based on his Americas performance. I'm taking Rathan-Mayes off for the time because I think the lost year sets him back. Hanlan definitely belongs in the mix, though I'm not sure whether it's PG or SG. All the other SGs are shooters, so a shot-creator like Hanlan might give them a better mix. Kabongo, obviously, is off the list for now.
The failure to qualify for the worlds next year is a significant disappointment but reflected the inexperience of the guys in the program right now (particularly their reliance on Nicholson, who struggled with foul trouble all tournament long). Canada chose to submit a wildcard application for the 2014 worlds, which actually surprises me. Brazil and China will both certainly get a wildcard, which means Canada is likely competing for one of two remaining spots with Nigeria, Greece, Turkey, Russia, Venezuela, Israel, Italy, and a few others. I don't think they'll get it, unless Wiggins sends a strong signal that he'll play (which I doubt, not his style to look ahead beyond his current team). We'll find out whether they get a wildcard spot in February.
edit: updated to include Pierre
Last edited by octothorp; 11-26-2013 at 02:09 PM.
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Ejim at Iowa State currently out until December with an injury. Recently I read an ESPN article that had him as a darkhorse to get to the NBA after a couple years in Europe.
Great work as always.
Ejim is back already and kicked Michigan's ass with a game high 22 points. Stauskas had the second most in the game with 20. I missed the game but a good box-score for Canada regardless.
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Just bumping this to say that 7'2" Calgarian Jordan Bachynski with Arizona State is starting to get into mocks as a late second-rounder. I didn't think he'd get the attention because seniors who are off the radar their first three years generally don't get noticed. Okay scoring and good rebounding numbers, but it's his 4.8 blocks-per-game (1st in div 1) that's getting him a look.
And while he's not getting mentioned in mocks yet and probably won't, Winnipeg-born senior Chad Postumus is second in the NCAA in rebounding, and first in offensive rebounds.
Big announcement out of FIBA today: Russia and China withdrew their wildcard bids for the World Championships (joining Italy and Germany, who also withdrew earlier). China was pretty-much an automatic wildcard berth, and I would have ranked Russia ahead of Canada as well in terms of likelihood. Now Brazil is the only sure thing, and Canada is in the mix with Greece, Turkey, Nigeria, Venezuela and Israel (there are other countries including Poland, Finland, Qatar, and Bosnia Herzegovina eligible, but I think all of those are longshots). A couple days ago I would have given Canada about 1-in-6 odds of making it, but now I'd put it more at fifty-fifty.
Results will be announced February 2nd.
EDIT: Reports are now that this may not actually be the case. No official word that either China or Russia have withdrawn. The original report was from El Mundo Deportivo, which is a Spanish sports newspaper, and given that Spain is hosting the tournament, it's not unthinkable that they'd find out something that hasn't been officially announced yet.
Last edited by octothorp; 01-31-2014 at 12:34 PM.
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Weird way to give out spots at the tournament, but hey if Canada gets in somehow, great. I really enjoyed watching them last summer, with the added depth and international experience would be fun to see how they do.
Edmonton's Manny Arop is playing at Indiana State. Watched him against Wichita State last night. Really good player. Great athlete.
__________________ I am in love with Montana. For other states I have admiration, respect, recognition, even some affection, but with Montana it is love." - John Steinbeck
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So I think it's safe to say that any disappointment about Wiggins' lack of dominance is being countered by Ennis' brilliant season. That buzzer-beater last night looked ridiculous, except that it fits completely with Ennis' clutch stats this season: 8-of-9 from the field and 14-of-14 from the line in the last 5 minutes and OT of 1 possession games, plus 4 assists, 0 turnovers.
Anyway, I thought I'd do a draft roundup of Canadian prospects currently in mocks, in draftexpress and nbadraft. There are 8 guys who have been on mocks for this year's draft at one time or another, although two of them (Hanlan, Birch) are expected to stay another year at this point. I know these aren't the most respected mocks out there (especially NBADraft) but at this point most mocks are only doing first rounds.
There isn't a more valuable player in college basketball this year than Tyler Ennis.
Syracuse will be one of my final 2 teams because of Tyler Ennis. The kid is incredible.
__________________ I am in love with Montana. For other states I have admiration, respect, recognition, even some affection, but with Montana it is love." - John Steinbeck
Just bumping this to say that 7'2" Calgarian Jordan Bachynski with Arizona State is starting to get into mocks as a late second-rounder. I didn't think he'd get the attention because seniors who are off the radar their first three years generally don't get noticed. Okay scoring and good rebounding numbers, but it's his 4.8 blocks-per-game (1st in div 1) that's getting him a look.
And while he's not getting mentioned in mocks yet and probably won't, Winnipeg-born senior Chad Postumus is second in the NCAA in rebounding, and first in offensive rebounds.
Thanks Octo.. i was trying to figure out that Calgarian's name.
My list of NCAA tournament teams with Canadians playing significant roles:
Wichita State - Wiggins, Lufile
Iowa State - Ejim, Long
Michigan - Stauskas
Kansas - Wiggins
Syracuse - Ennis
Creighton - Manigat
Baylor - Heslip, Chery
Gonzaga - Pangos
Oregon - Calliste, Armadi
Stanford - Powell
Arizona State - Bachynski
Harvard - Rivard
New Mexico State - Bhullar, Mullings, Dixon
On the bubble:
Dayton - Pierre
Missouri - Post
Prominent Canadians to miss the tournament
Boston College - Hanlan
UNLV - Birch
Indiana State - Arop
Colgate - Burnatowski
Morehead State - Posthumus
Imagine what an all-Canadian team would look like:
Ennis / Hanlan / Pangos
Stauskas / Mullings / Heslip
Wiggins / Ejim / Pierre
Powell / Birch / Posthumus
Bachynski / Bhullar
Such a team would consist of three wooden award finalists, three conference players of the year, two conference defensive players of the year. And you want rim protection? Three of the top five players in the league in blocks, and two would be top fifteen rebounders.
And this doesn't include prominent Canadian redshirts, transfers, and supendees:
Hawaii - Webster-Chan, Jankovic
Gonzaga - Wiltjer, Triano
Kansas State - Edwards
Florida State - Rathan-Mayes
Last edited by octothorp; 03-16-2014 at 01:01 PM.
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The men's national team won't play in the worlds as mentioned above, but they did complete an exhibition tour through Europe where they played 11 games, many against teams that will be in the Worlds this year. They went 5-6, including wins over 7th-ranked Turkey and 15th-ranked Angola. They also had close losses to Serbia, Croatia, Italy, and even their game against Spain was competitive (hanging within 10 points against a lineup that had both Gasols, Ibaka, Calderon, Rubio, and Navarro playing 20 minutes each has to be considered a big positive).
Joseph, Nicholson, English, Sacre, and Heslip were some of the big contributors through the tournament; great to see for Sacre, after there had been some concern that he wasn't going to be part of the team after pulling out of FIBAs last year. Heslip lead the team in scoring for a few games, and regardless of NBA prospects, looks to be a big part of the national team.
I probably don't need to tell anyone Wiggins' status, but seems pretty likely he and Bennett will end up in Minnesota in a few days. With Ennis in Phoenix, Stauskas in Sacramento, there are at least 3 new Canadians in the NBA this year, with two lingering questions:
Powell still hasn't been signed by the Cavs yet, and with Marion signing I don't think they'll sign him now. I think they'll renounce his draft rights in the coming weeks.
Sim Bhullar, against all predictions, has a non-guaranteed contract with Sacramento, and looks to have a reasonable chance of staying on contract and going to the d-league. As much as I thought it was an awful decision for him to declare for the draft, now I wonder if he had a promise of at least a d-league contract from Ranadive. I think it's shown now that Sacramento is going to give him every possible opportunity to succeed, so what more could you want for a guy in Bhullar's position? (But if I was a Sacramento fan, I'd be highly skeptical of this move.) My favorite thing to come out of Bhullar's time with Sacramento was the picture of him dwarfing 6'11", 270lb Cousins: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BsHfEPrCEAAeVkW.jpg
Khem Birch also had a good summer league with the Wizards, but seemed like he was a contingency plan for them not resigning Seraphim. So with Seraphim resigning, hard to say where Birch falls. He's good enough to at least get a training camp invite, but it may be worthwhile for him to turn his attention to Europe now.
Along with Powell, the changes in Cleveland create uncertainty for Thompson: he'll be pushed back to bench player behind Love, and while he might get some playoff experience now, his roll will change. And Nicholson continues to be submarined in the Orlando depth chart, now probably moving behind Aaron Gordon. He needs to get out of there, onto a team where he's getting steady backup minutes.
Now, to the guys who won't be playing in the NBA next year:
Bachynski had a decent summer league, and there was some thought he might stick as a third center with Charlotte, but ended up signing with a Turkish team for 1 year.
Melvin Ejim got very little summer league time and will play in Italy next year.
Heslip doesn't have a contract yet but it makes a lot of sense for him to play in Europe, especially after showcasing his skills there with the national team.
Most notable Canadian freshmen next year: Lyles (Kentucky), Egi (Harvard), Shayok (Marquette). Of these three, Lyles is the only one who has a real shot at being a one-and-done candidate, but I think that Egi is going to be another excellent PF after playing 3 or 4 years at Harvard.
Other Canadians who could be in the draft next year: Hanlan, Rathan-Mayes, Wiltjer, Pierre, Pangos. I'm really interested to see where Wiltjer is at after red-shirting for a year. It's hard for guys who fall so much in their rankings to recover any ground, but I think he made the right decision.
This coming year will also be the last year of Phil Scrubb's career at Carleton. Can he get onto the NBA scouting radars by next summer? He played a big roll on the exhibition tour this summer, and I can see him in the national team's long-term plans, regardless of where he ends up.
So, my updated 2016 depth chart:
C: Sacre, Olynyk, Bachynski
PF: Thompson, Nicholson, Bennett, Powell
SF: Wiggins, Ejim, Shepherd
SG: Stauskas, Heslip
PG: C. Joseph, Ennis, Scrubb
As I've said in the past, I think the strength of the program will be their stretch big-men. Nicholson's game has shown the potential to be extremely effective at the international level, and Olynyk, Bennett (and Lyles and Wiltjer in the future) could all be similarly effective. Few teams in the world could put out a starting lineup that can spread the floor as well as a lineup of Olynk, Nicholson, Wiggins, Stauskas, and Joseph, and then follow it up with guys like Scrubb, Heslip, and Bennett off the bench.
Looking further down the pipe, all of Montique Gill-Ceasar (2015), Justin Jackson (2016), and Jamal Murray (2016) continue to be seen as top recruits. My prediction is that Jackson is going to be a big part of the national team by 2020; I think his skillset as a point-forward is perfect alongside all those shooters.
Last edited by octothorp; 08-18-2014 at 01:01 PM.
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Hasn't been as much to talk about for Canadian prospects this college season, but last night Xavier Rathan Mayes had an absolutely jaw-dropping stretch of 30 points in the last 4:38 of his game.
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