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Old 07-22-2021, 01:32 PM   #121
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Very good points. I'd add that the hottest hot days and the coldest cold days are very for wind output. These are days with the highest demand in Alberta.

Not having firm supply in winter is a life-threatening situation.
For a smaller market like Alberta, I do wonder how far a 1MW/150MW aqueous iron battery would go for the longer term storage. Like could you have an additional 10% renewable mix?
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Old 07-22-2021, 01:39 PM   #122
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Quebec doesn't want to talk about this environmental disaster anymore, they look down there noses at Alberta, because their energy export infrastructure is already built out.
Quebec like Alberta could actually use more export lines. You could just change a few words in the second paragraph and it would describe Alberta's situation perfectly.



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Old 07-22-2021, 01:41 PM   #123
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For a smaller market like Alberta, I do wonder how far a 1MW/150MW aqueous iron battery would go for the longer term storage. Like could you have an additional 10% renewable mix?
Our consumption is around 10,000MW, so 1MW is not going to go far at all. Even 100 of those doesn't really move the needle. Wind generation is ~2000MW capacity. In the low times in January, it was around 150MW. So to make wind a reliable power source with batteries, to get a consistent say, 1000MW, that's 1000 of those batteries. Is that achievable? I haven't looked into the details of that battery plan.
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Old 07-22-2021, 01:42 PM   #124
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Very good points. I'd add that the hottest hot days and the coldest cold days are very for wind output. These are days with the highest demand in Alberta.

Not having firm supply in winter is a life-threatening situation.

Exactly why we need a more interconnected grid so that we're not solely relying on wind/solar during the winter and we can tap into other provinces or states.
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Old 07-22-2021, 01:51 PM   #125
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Does hydro take a big dip in winter as well? Or is it pretty steady year round when properly managed?
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Old 07-22-2021, 01:52 PM   #126
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I'm not saying to not build renewables, but you still require something else. You can't use batteries for a week in January when the wind is dead and solar is at near zero. You must replace coal capacity with gas in Alberta, there is no other choice. That's reality. Well, that or weeks of blackouts.
While this is true, we need to get in the weeds to see why this is less of an issue than one might think. Installation of the gas turbine is not actually that expensive. Even added to solar as backup it's at least competitive with a Combined Cycle Gas Turbine alone once carbon tax is factored in. To get down to the economics, renewables only real cost is the fixed cost for installation and a small amount for periodic maintenance. For CCGT you not only have the fixed installation costs, but then you're also paying the marginal cost of the gas for every kWh produced whereas the marginal cost of each kWh from wind and solar is virtually zero. It really depends on efficiencies of the turbines, local gas prices, and installed turbine price which are highly variable depending on where they're being built. I also would imagine as gas becomes less relied on for energy and production is disrupted, the prices will fluctuate a lot and it suddenly won't always be so cheap. That would favour gas as a back up a fair bit more
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Old 07-22-2021, 01:58 PM   #127
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That would have to be regulated, which in a deregulated system would not be easy.

Last time BC stuck their fingers into the Ab system, BC Hydro was buying cheap power from Alberta at night, filling their dams, then opening their dams during the day and selling power back into Ab when prices spiked. IIRC (this was in 2002) it cost Albertans almost a billion dollars.

IMO you would need a regulated system between BC and Alberta, and it's REALLY complicated trying to marry up a deregulated system with a government owned and regulated one. I don't know how (or if) it would work.
The agreement between Newfoundland and Quebec is the most egregious example of what you have to watch out for in this agreements. Only 20 years left for NL to be continue getting hosed.

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Old 07-22-2021, 02:22 PM   #128
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I’ve never heard of that agreement, but holy moly.

Is Quebec exporting power from that site state side? They must be. I assume they use what they need from local generation sources and export the rest.

They are literally profiteering off Newfoundland.
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Old 07-22-2021, 04:37 PM   #129
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Reality. Gas plants can be planned and built a a few years. Nuclear in Alberta would be at least decade, if you ever got to the building phase, which I question if that is even possible these days. I know gas is not ideal, but it's not like we have a load of options.
Yup, at least a decade to get permitted, another decade to build, and most nuclear goes waaaaaaay overbudget. By that point, you're starting to be too late for the timeframes we need to get to net-zero within as well.

I'm not anti-nuclear in that I like that it's clean baseload energy and I can see a place for it. But it's timeline (decade+ to build if we start today) doesn't help and the tendency to go billions over budget/timeline is worrisome (but hey, if we're going to spend billions of public money, better off doing it on nuclear than a pipeline to nowhere or NWR refinery).

These aren't problems you can't solve, but they're definitely things to watch out for.

Could you imagine the blowback on a plan going 10 yrs and 10B overbudget? (oh wait, that's basically NWR boondoggle)

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That puts Flamanville 10 years past its original due date. One of the more alarming causes for delay is a break in the “main secondary system penetration welds,” which has contributed to a budget that’s bloated from a planned $3.9 billion to $14.6 billion.

In July, “France’s Court of Auditors slammed the Flamanville build, saying EDF had vastly underestimated its cost and timetable for completion,” Montel reports: “The EPR reactor was originally expected to start commercial operation in 2013 and cost EUR3.3 billion. However, the project has been beset by delays and cost increases. Last October, EDF said necessary repairs to the reactor's main secondary system penetration welds will further increase the cost of constructing the Flamanville EPR to EUR12.4 billion. The loading of fuel into the reactor has also been further delayed until the end of 2022.”
https://www.popularmechanics.com/sci...xpensive-mess/

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Old 07-23-2021, 03:35 AM   #130
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Our consumption is around 10,000MW, so 1MW is not going to go far at all. Even 100 of those doesn't really move the needle. Wind generation is ~2000MW capacity. In the low times in January, it was around 150MW. So to make wind a reliable power source with batteries, to get a consistent say, 1000MW, that's 1000 of those batteries. Is that achievable? I haven't looked into the details of that battery plan.
If you account for all of Alberta’s residential, commercial, industrial and transport uses, our consumption is equivalent to roughly 120GW.
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Old 07-23-2021, 06:12 AM   #131
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That is a good point, as more and more things are electrified you will need more production.
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Old 07-23-2021, 10:27 AM   #132
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That is a good point, as more and more things are electrified you will need more production.
Most estimates I've heard if I'm remembering correctly (and not just AB) are 3-5x more capacity will be needed as everything gets electrified.
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Old 07-23-2021, 11:35 AM   #133
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If you account for all of Alberta’s residential, commercial, industrial and transport uses, our consumption is equivalent to roughly 120GW.
Where are you seeing 120GW? I think you may have added a 0 there.
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Old 07-23-2021, 12:07 PM   #134
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Where are you seeing 120GW? I think you may have added a 0 there.
I presume he's adding in transport, industrial fuels, home heating...but it still sounds too high.
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Old 07-23-2021, 02:13 PM   #135
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Most estimates I've heard if I'm remembering correctly (and not just AB) are 3-5x more capacity will be needed as everything gets electrified.
These estimates really vary as it depends locally on how much industry would be electrified, so Alberta would need a lot. More broadly though, it really depends on what technologies you're assuming will be used. For example, if you assume hydrogen fuel cell technology vs battery, long haul trucking would need 3 times as much electricity. It also ignores the biggest technology that can cut GHG: efficiency gains. It's not as sexy, but there's a ton of fat to trim but it's not clear all the gains that will be had if we look for them.

It's a safe bet to assume at very least 2.5-3 times globally
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