Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[Calgary14]

Originally Posted by fleury

Yup, ain't that the truth. A week and a half ago I was going to put every penny I had into a week trade on Shopify @ $485 when they announced they weren't going to announce estimates for the upcoming quarter (perfectly reasonable). I thought it was good for a trade to $540 and I'd be out. I didn't buy. Today that POS is $690. Damn it's upsetting to lose out.

You may have missed out on that one but bigger picture I wouldn't put everything I had into any one particular stock, ever

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by jayswin

So, I'd imagine there's a pretty good chance of a drop off soon?

Do you have a specific reason for that? Or just, 'cause?

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Do you have a specific reason for that? Or just, 'cause?

Shooting star doji? haha....just messing with you.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Calgary14

You may have missed out on that one but bigger picture I wouldn't put everything I had into any one particular stock, ever

Oh, I've learned my lesson in the past. But with a company who's been doing excellent lately, is highly resistant to dips, and is generally outperforming the market, that news that came should not have resulted in I believe ~$80 dip that day. So unless some horrible market news came out in the next day, I expected some minimal 5% recovery for some so-called easy money. This jump is just wild.

[burn_this_city]

Sold everything last few days in all my accounts. This bear market rally feels overdone and I'm ok hanging out at May 2019 levels on SPY, this has the potential to be a horrific recession and we've really barely moved off the top all things considered.

[Johnny199r]

I haven't bought since the bear market began. If I was wise, I would have dollar cost averaged some money in by now. It's hard to know how much lower this thing goes. I personally believe we're not at the bottom yet.

I have felt exactly 0 motivation to sell. I have 25 years until retirement, the market will eventually go up again. Selling in bear markets is not a strategy I'd encourage (maybe this time really is different, but I doubt it)

I just hope that I have the confidence to fully take advantage of this great buying opportunity.

On the positive side, Mawer balanced fund has held up pretty well for me during this bear market. I was I could say the same about some index ETFs I own.

[Samonadreau]

Be interesting when all the 1st quarter earnings reports come out in the next 2-3 weeks.

Kicker is that the 2nd quarter is likely to be WAY worse then the 1st for most. pretty sobering.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Johnny199r

I haven't bought since the bear market began. If I was wise, I would have dollar cost averaged some money in by now. It's hard to know how much lower this thing goes. I personally believe we're not at the bottom yet.

I have felt exactly 0 motivation to sell. I have 25 years until retirement, the market will eventually go up again. Selling in bear markets is not a strategy I'd encourage (maybe this time really is different, but I doubt it)

I just hope that I have the confidence to fully take advantage of this great buying opportunity.

On the positive side, Mawer balanced fund has held up pretty well for me during this bear market. I was I could say the same about some index ETFs I own.

You probably already realize, but with the indexes you get the whole downside and whole upside (less the fees). A balanced mandate is likely 60/40 or 65/35 so you have the bonds there to holdup when we have the downside. On the way up you probably lag the overall market because of the fixed income, but the point is its a less volatile ride in a mandate like that.

I'm just curious though, what do you think the bottom is? Is there a number or what kind of thing are you looking for?

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

Be interesting when all the 1st quarter earnings reports come out in the next 2-3 weeks.

Kicker is that the 2nd quarter is likely to be WAY worse then the 1st for most. pretty sobering.

It might be sobering for sure. But let's not forget, we all know the earnings reports will be terrible. Some companies have already begun reporting for Q1 and of course the results aren't good. Not saying that this is you, but in a general sense; if the plan is "earnings will be terrible and we'll see that buying opportunity", you might want to be careful. When everyone thinks that earnings are terrible and they meet that expectation, you're not likely going to see companies get hammered. That doesn't mean we've seen the bottom or you should do anything in particular, just pointing this out.

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by jayswin

So, I'd imagine there's a pretty good chance of a drop off soon?

If you want some sort of something to base your decision on you can do quite well with simple trend lines. The spoiler is the daily chart of the s&p 500 today. Just draw a line along the bottoms of the daily candles and whenever there is more white space between the line and the most current candle, or the further away from the trend line the price is, the more likely it is that price will return to the trend line. When price breaks down through the trend line it is likely to accelerate down until there is more white space between the price and the trend line again. Then it will go back up to the trend line. At this point you could say that the short term upward trend is still valid so hold on to your long positions. But I would switch to short positions if the price falls below the trend line.

Spoiler!

If you want a better visual of a trend line break, check out the SPY chart from March 24. It broke the downward trend line that day and went from 234 to 289 in a 3 week period.

Spoiler!

Trend lines are not at all arbitrary. Algorithmic computers trade off of them and so they become somewhat self fulfilling. They are however also a visual representation of investor sentiment. So absent any true insider information, it is hard to get better information then that which is given in a trend line.

[Samonadreau]

WTI just jumped to 26.50 after 2.5 days at 20. Whats going on there?

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

WTI just jumped to 26.50 after 2.5 days at 20. Whats going on there?

I saw new of a drop in oil shipments from Russia last night maybe that's it?

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[Jason14h]

Some reports at positive responses to Covid treatments / drugs and expectation economy could open at a more rapid pace and drive oil demand I would assume

[Samonadreau]

Edit was just oilprice.com

[puckedoff]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

And now just dropped from 25 to 18.50 ... wtf

Maybe you just switched your currency from USD to CAD and back

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by puckedoff

Maybe you just switched your currency from USD to CAD and back

No sir.

May have been something going on with Oilprice.com. If you trend the month it shows the jump up and down over night. And now just straight lines it on the week trend.

[jeffporfirio]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

No sir.

May have been something going on with Oilprice.com. If you trend the month it shows the jump up and down over night. And now just straight lines it on the week trend.

Compare Oilprice.com with USOIL on Trading view

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by jeffporfirio

Compare Oilprice.com with USOIL on Trading view

Ya, I compared with bloomberg after.

[Krovikan]

If the spike was the anti-viral news spiking it, maybe people realized that anti-virals are really dangerous and while may help minimize the deaths from COVID-19 in combinations with current self-isolation, it should not reduce the self-isolation.

If the spike was the afterglow of all the announcements of opening economies, maybe people started realizing we are still a month(s) away before a meaningful increase in oil demand back to norms.

If the spike was due to the Russian news, maybe people realized that the news is a drop in the bucket compared to the overall oversupply issues.

I exited my CVE position this morning after the spike from WTI and Liberals oil package, as I think their earnings at the end of the month will be bad and I'm hoping to find a new entry point in May. It is weird normal I avoid O&G as long-term I think growth is very limited in that sector, but O&G and my cloud positions (I normally have investments in cloud and IT) have really helped my TSFA stay positive across the last couple of months.

[wwkayaker]

The current market is baffling me. The USA is nearing 1 million cases of Covid. The unemployment numbers are rising quickly resulting in a large drop in incomes/purchasing power. The testing rate isn’t sufficient enough to provide the experts the info they need on spread with things locked down let alone opening back up. Many individual states are opening up now with evidence of poor social distancing in areas like beaches.

I bought stock in March and have taken profits recently. I anticipate that with the states opening up the result is going to result in major spreading of the virus, more lockdowns, unemployment, and bankruptcies. I think the market will drop as earnings are released in the next couple of quarters.

Maybe I’m just a clueless bear, I guess. You?

[DoubleK]

I'm completely lost as well.

I liquidated the mutual funds I brought over from TD and had planned to move them into the ETFs I'm holding, but will park it as cash for now.

The fact that the markets are back to the same level as Summer 2019 with massive unemployment and basically zero earnings guidance is baffling.

Surely there is another shoe to drop....