Let's talk Box Office

[Nadal Fan]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

An R rating for Birds of Prey may have been a mistake. That rating is going to cut into the teenage (and tween) girl audience where Harley has a lot of popularity.

I suspect WB will learn there lesson and change Suicide Squad 2 to PG13

[RyZ]

Birds of Prey now looking at a $30-35mil opening weekend domestically, well below even the most conservative estimates. Th R rating may have something to do with lower numbers, but I think the marketing for some of these female led action movies is the far larger problem that most people dont seem to want to talk about. Looks like another one bit the dust.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by RyZ

Birds of Prey now looking at a $30-35mil opening weekend domestically, well below even the most conservative estimates. Th R rating may have something to do with lower numbers, but I think the marketing for some of these female led action movies is the far larger problem that most people dont seem to want to talk about. Looks like another one bit the dust.

In what way? I cant remember another movie that wasnt Star Wars being rammed down my throat as much as this one. They are advertising the hell out of this movie.

The 'R' rating was probably unwise when trying to captivate the female audience.

[blankall]

I wonder how much of the pre release estimates were false numbers put out by WB. It seems like the major studios have really put a focus on pumping up pre release box office to build hype.

Obviously the danger in that is that when a movie falls below these numbers it can put people off. In this case even though BoP will probably still make a lot of money, due to low budget, people will focus on the huge projections.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by RyZ

Birds of Prey now looking at a $30-35mil opening weekend domestically, well below even the most conservative estimates. Th R rating may have something to do with lower numbers, but I think the marketing for some of these female led action movies is the far larger problem that most people dont seem to want to talk about. Looks like another one bit the dust.

Wonder woman and Captain Marvel both did alright.

To me, there's just something about BoP that looks cheap. The jokes don't look super funny either. It basically looks like a cheaper unfunny Deadpool.

The initial reviews were kind of changing my mind. But the RT reviews all seem to say it's just middle of the road. I may still go see it in a few weeks, if I have the time.

[Firebot]

Birds of Prey was a fun movie, and I love how the story was told (basically literally as Harley thinks). Suicide Squad being a bad movie has much more to do with its bad box office than the R rating. I expect it to pick up steam as people realize it's actually pretty good. Not earth shattering, just fun.

[OutOfTheCube]

There’s no steam to gain really off a $30M opening weekend unfortunately. Movie is a bomb.

[Johnny Makarov]

They needed Will Smith in it. R-rated Will Smith is excellent!

[blankall]

Originally Posted by OutOfTheCube

There’s no steam to gain really off a $30M opening weekend unfortunately. Movie is a bomb.

Lol. It's still likely to be profitable against it's budget. Not sure how you consider that a bomb.

[OutOfTheCube]

Originally Posted by blankall

Lol. It's still likely to be profitable against it's budget. Not sure how you consider that a bomb.

I'm sure when WB green-lit a quasi-sequel featuring the most popular character from a $300M+ commercial hit, they weren't thinking "let's barely break even on this."

[zamler]

$90 million budget which is about the same as Joker, BoP might make a profit but with marketing/promotion and the cut theatres take it won't make much if anything.

That's a bomb.

[Nadal Fan]

Sometimes good movies just don't perform at the box office (looking at you Edge of Tomorrow and Blade Runner 2049). I don't think this changes much for WB/DC going forward. WW84 will be a top 3 movie this year at the box office and I suspect The Batman will as well next year and Suicide Squad 2 and Black Adam hopefully crush it next year. Sometimes you take chances and they work out financially (Joker) and sometimes well they don't.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Nadal Fan

Sometimes good movies just don't perform at the box office (looking at you Edge of Tomorrow and Blade Runner 2049). I don't think this changes much for WB/DC going forward. WW84 will be a top 3 movie this year at the box office and I suspect The Batman will as well next year and Suicide Squad 2 and Black Adam hopefully crush it next year. Sometimes you take chances and they work out financially (Joker) and sometimes well they don't.

I don't know about WW84. I saw that cheetah costume and it looked Cats worthy. Can't wait for Batman though.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

I don't know about WW84. I saw that cheetah costume and it looked Cats worthy. Can't wait for Batman though.

The photo can be found pretty easily through a google search, but, yes, it's a bit weird. I have some reservations about what tone they might going for in this film.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Nadal Fan

Sometimes good movies just don't perform at the box office (looking at you Edge of Tomorrow and Blade Runner 2049). I don't think this changes much for WB/DC going forward. WW84 will be a top 3 movie this year at the box office and I suspect The Batman will as well next year and Suicide Squad 2 and Black Adam hopefully crush it next year. Sometimes you take chances and they work out financially (Joker) and sometimes well they don't.

And sometimes bad and terrible movies over-perform.

[Nadal Fan]

I think the floor for WW84 is around $700 mill world wide even if it's complete garbage. If it's as good as the first one then I think it hits the billion dollar mark.

This is going to have a huge impact on movies for the next few months....Mulan is scheduled to come out at the end of March.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1226892380697022474

[blankall]

Originally Posted by zamler

$90 million budget which is about the same as Joker, BoP might make a profit but with marketing/promotion and the cut theatres take it won't make much if anything.

That's a bomb.

BoP is on pace to be more profitable, relative to budget than Captain America or Ant-Man.

Also, if you're going to take into account marketing, then you have to take into account other streams of revenue as well: streaming, DVD, toys, etc...

BoP is falling below expectations, but is far from a bomb. If all movies that only makes 10s of millions are bombs, then we've certainly go a new, very highly encompassing, standard for what a bomb is.

Also, BoP did not get a China release.

[Matata]

Originally Posted by blankall

BoP is on pace to be more profitable, relative to budget than Captain America or Ant-Man.

Also, if you're going to take into account marketing, then you have to take into account other streams of revenue as well: streaming, DVD, toys, etc...

BoP is falling below expectations, but is far from a bomb. If all movies that only makes 10s of millions are bombs, then we've certainly go a new, very highly encompassing, standard for what a bomb is.

Also, BoP did not get a China release.

BoP, $100M budget, at best it will take in $250M at the global box office, could be as low as $100-$150M if the bottom falls out next weekend, which means it will break even or lose over $100M. Captain America was $140M budget, $370M box office. Ant Man was $130M budget, $520M box office. BoP doesn't have anywhere as rich of a market for toys and such, as sexy clown dolls for R-rated movies have a pretty limited market.

Is it even getting a chinese release? It has a chinese-american director, so they'll try, but with the Corona virus messing with release dates and no release for suicide squad, this movie could make nothing in China.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Matata

BoP, $100M budget, at best it will take in $250M at the global box office, could be as low as $100-$150M if the bottom falls out next weekend, which means it will break even or lose over $100M. Captain America was $140M budget, $370M box office. Ant Man was $130M budget, $520M box office. BoP doesn't have anywhere as rich of a market for toys and such, as sexy clown dolls for R-rated movies have a pretty limited market.

Is it even getting a chinese release? It has a chinese-american director, so they'll try, but with the Corona virus messing with release dates and no release for suicide squad, this movie could make nothing in China.

BoP already made over $81 million, in it's first weekend. You really think there's a chance it only makes $100 million total?

And the actual budget is estimated at $82-97 million, yet you've gone above the highest estimate. Captain America had a budget between $140–216.7, yet you've gone with the lowest budget.

[Matata]

I went with the budgets on wiki, which are production budgets. How much movies actually cost and how budgets are managed is largely shrouded in secrecy (in order to maintain a good grift), so I figure sole sourcing wiki for budgets is about as good as I can do.

I heard the budget was $100M minus a $12M tax credit, but I'd imagine most big films receive some type of tax incentive. So I figure $100M is good enough for napkin calculations.

If "the bottom falls out" in the second weekend, that would mean a ~70% drop, so $25M, and if it drops that much then it's probably only making another $10M in box office, which gets us to $115M. Considering the post release hype on this film has focused on mixed reviews and poor box office, I think that's a realistic floor for the movie.