Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by troutman

Who predicted they would win 70%? The greatest teams in history would have a hard time doing that.

Over the course of a full season, yes, but not over the course of a month

[Flamenspiel]

I watched the Oilers game(yes I know it’s an old fashioned thing in today’s CORSI era), the Oilers looked awful 5 on 5 and Koskinen played Very well.
Indeed They were very unimpressive(it was really the usual fire drill stuff)other then when Mcdavid was on. The second line is RNH, Jurco, and Neal, they were dominated for the most part.

That being said, I could see Neal improving the power play as he has displayed a really nice touch around the net that we did not see before. However his performance is not sustainable in the long run.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

How's that? Are the Flames worse off because of the trade? I don't see it.

They sure aren’t. But time to forget about Neal and start focusing on Lucic. He is as tough as advertised but not sure he belongs on special teams or even taking a regular shift in games that aren’t that physical.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

They sure aren’t. But time to forget about Neal and start focusing on Lucic. He is as tough as advertised but not sure he belongs on special teams or even taking a regular shift in games that aren’t that physical.

I can agree with that. I did not like his game against LA, but thought he and Bennett were quite effective on the forecheck tonight. That's of modest value.

[The Cobra]

Before tonight Neal was averaging 2 goals per game. He just got 1 tonight.

That’s regression.....


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[djsFlames]

The trade made the Oilers a little better for as long as Neal can sustain his little run, although most of his output will just be replacing Chiasson's.

The trade also made the Flames better because Flames-Neal was a black hole of a roster spot and almost any NHLer is an improvement on that.

[Gundo]

Really.....the goal scorer who plays with Connor and Leon is getting goals. That’s amazing.

Look, as it stands right now both teams are getting exactly what they were hoping for.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Gundo

Really.....the goal scorer who plays with Connor and Leon is getting goals. That’s amazing.

Look, as it stands right now both teams are getting exactly what they were hoping for.

What have the Flames received exactly? He roughed up Zadorov negating a powerplay in game one which they lost, has landed a small handful of hits while providing absolutely nothing offensively all for over $5 million. It's the worst contract in the NHL and as said above he's probably not good enough to take a regular shift in some games.

[SuperMatt18]

Neal is shooting 46.7% with 5 PP goals and 2 ES goals.

If he was shooting 15% (still high) and had 2 goals I doubt it would be a big deal right now. He’s just getting really lucky to start the season.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

How's that? Are the Flames worse off because of the trade? I don't see it.

Truth be told, they very well could be.

I think it's unlikely that Lucic matches Neal's offensive output of last year, while his vaunted truculence won't really matter much come playoff time when he's getting 10 minutes ice time tops and stapled to the bench in any high pressure situation. Assuming he even gets into the line up by that point.

And while people are leaning heavily on advanced stats to dismiss Neal's contributions to the Oilers thus far, they don't seem to have realized that Lucic is easily the second-worst forward on the Flames in that department. And between you and me, I expect Sam Bennett to improve. I don't expect Lucic will.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

What have the Flames received exactly? He roughed up Zadorov negating a powerplay in game one which they lost, has landed a small handful of hits while providing absolutely nothing offensively all for over $5 million. It's the worst contract in the NHL and as said above he's probably not good enough to take a regular shift in some games.

They received some modest cap relief and a material amount of cash savings. it's why Lucic was one of the few players who could actually have been traded for Neal. Edmonton got a player who might likely produce more, Calgary got the cap and money savings.

The chance of Neal getting 20 goals was clearly contemplated as a likely event, its why the 3rd round pick was added to the mix.

If Calgary knew then that Neal was going to score 7 goals in his first 4 games, they still would have pulled the trigger. It really changes nothing.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Truth be told, they very well could be.

I think it's unlikely that Lucic matches Neal's offensive output of last year, while his vaunted truculence won't really matter much come playoff time when he's getting 10 minutes ice time tops and stapled to the bench in any high pressure situation. Assuming he even gets into the line up by that point.

And while people are leaning heavily on advanced stats to dismiss Neal's contributions to the Oilers thus far, they don't seem to have realized that Lucic is easily the second-worst forward on the Flames in that department. And between you and me, I expect Sam Bennett to improve. I don't expect Lucic will.

Yeah, I keep coming back to this as well in my head.

Conceivably if you buy out Stone and Neal in June you're left with an extra ~6 million which allows you to re-sign Tkachuk to the same deal he's at now while signing Ferland to the same deal he's at with Vancouver, as an example.

Which still leaves sucky lucic up in edmonton and leaves the canucks without a decent forward, effectively damaging your two chief rivals.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

They received some modest cap relief and a material amount of cash savings. it's why Lucic was one of the few players who could actually have been traded for Neal. Edmonton got a player who might likely produce more, Calgary got the cap and money savings.

The chance of Neal getting 20 goals was clearly contemplated as a likely event, its why the 3rd round pick was added to the mix.

If Calgary knew then that Neal was going to score 7 goals in his first 4 games, they still would have pulled the trigger. It really changes nothing.

People need to forget about Neal for a moment and focus on Lucic and what he provides for his salary. Removing Neal doesn't change the fact that one of the team's highest paid players is a fringe NHL player. I still go back to the GM making the commitment to Neal. I assume this team is advised by their pro scouts so someone really messed up here. The GM and pro scouts that thought it would work or the coach for ensuring it wasn't going to work. This is a massive debacle for the team.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

People need to forget about Neal for a moment and focus on Lucic and what he provides for his salary. Removing Neal doesn't change the fact that one of the team's highest paid players is a fringe NHL player.

Agreed on all accounts.

But Neal was likely a fringe NHL player for Calgary too. But Lucic brought with him cap relief and a material amount of cash savings. At the end of the day, that was and remains very valuable to the Flames.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Seems exhausting to review on a game by game basis and maybe better to look after 20, 40 games etc.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Truth be told, they very well could be.

I think it's unlikely that Lucic matches Neal's offensive output of last year, while his vaunted truculence won't really matter much come playoff time when he's getting 10 minutes ice time tops and stapled to the bench in any high pressure situation. Assuming he even gets into the line up by that point.

And while people are leaning heavily on advanced stats to dismiss Neal's contributions to the Oilers thus far, they don't seem to have realized that Lucic is easily the second-worst forward on the Flames in that department. And between you and me, I expect Sam Bennett to improve. I don't expect Lucic will.

I think this is probably all true, but given how quickly the team soured on Neal, given how quickly Neal soured on the Flames, and with whispers of stuff going on off-ice, I suspect that the entire situation had become untenable. So, in that respect, it seems likely to me that the Flames sans Neal are a better team than they were with him, regardless of whomever has been inserted to replace him. The fact he was moved for Lucic says something significant about how determined the Flames were to just get rid of him.


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[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think this is probably all true, but given how quickly the team soured on Neal, given how quickly Neal soured on the Flames, and with whispers of stuff going on off-ice, I suspect that the entire situation had become untenable. So, in that respect, it seems likely to me that the Flames sans Neal are a better team than they were with him, regardless of whomever has been inserted to replace him. The fact he was moved for Lucic says something significant about how determined the Flames were to just get rid of him.


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So Peters lost the room? or just one player. In the playoffs the Flames were not able to step up to playoff level.


Neal went through many coaches before he soured?

I think it was a simple matter of the Flames not living up to their commitment they made when they signed him. It was a bad fit...

[ricardodw]

Hopefully future UFAs and agents will look at the Neal mess and not sign with the Flames.

UFAs seldom are good deals for the team.

[Resolute 14]

You are right there, textcritic. I agree that all indications are that we needed to get rid of Neal. But the fact remains, I don't believe Lucic makes the Flames better.

Everything we are doing right now is trying to polish a turd. And the problem is, we are actually getting a bit lucky with Lucic (and Bennett) right now in that their poor on-ice play hasn't really burned us yet. That line is going to start costing us goals against sooner rather than later. And if I'm being honest, the only mitigation I see is to bench Lucic and put Czarnik out in his place. But that's not going to happen.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Seems exhausting to review on a game by game basis and maybe better to look after 20, 40 games etc.

So much this.