CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I also think at some point we should figure out whether we want to send the spore to puxslut to get a free day, or attempt to keep her as a confirmed townie for the endgame when it comes down to numbers and a confirmed townie helps with the odds. Does anyone have any thoughts on how I could convert those to expected values? I feel like I should be able to figure out the "right" answer to this, but am having trouble getting a foothold on the problem. Granted, this is less important than figuring out who the host is, but I don't want it to get lost in the shuffle in case we end up running up to a hammer at some point.

I sort of assumed that the pass to Pux was the obvious play:

1) We keep track of the spore
2) Pux will not turn, so we avoid a 50/50 flip
3) We will know it was sent to Pux and therefore can decide as a group where it goes

I see what you are saying in the sense that once Pux gets the spore once her (almost) confirmed town status goes away as she could receive the spore back, but I think that's too far down the road. Given that Oling is truthful, there is no spore today and it will be handed out tonight. Therefore the scenario would play out as:

1) Player A receives spore on Night 3 and does not turn (obviously the person has to not turn for this to work)
2) Player A passes spore to Pux on Night 4
3) Player A tells everyone on Day 5 and we decide on a new target
4) Pux passes spore on Night 5 to hopefully scum
5) Unsure of spore status (much like Day 2) on Day 6 as we don't know for sure if it worked

That's a lot of time to control the spore when we feel pretty good there are no turned as this point and keeps no turned until at least Day 6.

HG - I agree this doesn't apply if someone has the spore today, but should someone receive it tomorrow and not turn, there should be a general agreement of what they should do that night (as they will not know they had the spore until the night phase when they have to pass and cannot consult everyone)

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

If our top 3 suspects aren't scum we're likely not lynching one anyways. This late untelegraphed vote would just allow the hosts and future turned to coordinate and not the town...it's to their advantage more than ours, in my opinion.

I think letting puxlut decide who to lynch from 2-3 choices is a pretty good plan, but I'm wondering how feasible it is? Will we be able to get 3 people that everyone can agree on?

[East Coast Flame]

It would be pretty hard to be steering the ship as much as HG has while posting so much, and not have a glaring slip up if he were scum. I guess hindsight is 20/20 and there might be somewhere he did slip up earlier that we haven't caught on to, but I just don't see it right now/

Was he wrong on the two votes? Sure, but so were a lot of us. That's not an indictment this early in the game, espesically when not a lot of other people aren't putting their neck out.

I'm not buying this HG scum push

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I sort of assumed that the pass to Pux was the obvious play:

1) We keep track of the spore
2) Pux will not turn, so we avoid a 50/50 flip
3) We will know it was sent to Pux and therefore can decide as a group where it goes

I see what you are saying in the sense that once Pux gets the spore once her (almost) confirmed town status goes away as she could receive the spore back, but I think that's too far down the road. Given that Oling is truthful, there is no spore today and it will be handed out tonight. Therefore the scenario would play out as:

1) Player A receives spore on Night 3 and does not turn (obviously the person has to not turn for this to work)
2) Player A passes spore to Pux on Night 4
3) Player A tells everyone on Day 5 and we decide on a new target
4) Pux passes spore on Night 5 to hopefully scum
5) Unsure of spore status (much like Day 2) on Day 6 as we don't know for sure if it worked

That's a lot of time to control the spore when we feel pretty good there are no turned as this point and keeps no turned until at least Day 6.

HG - I agree this doesn't apply if someone has the spore today, but should someone receive it tomorrow and not turn, there should be a general agreement of what they should do that night (as they will not know they had the spore until the night phase when they have to pass and cannot consult everyone)

We really don't need to be concrned about the spore right now.

Mrkajz just adding some noise?

[squiggs96]

Crazy, tinfoil hat, conspiracy theory time!

Oling's a host. Puxlut received the spore on day 0 and is now infected. Her end game has changed, so now she needs to recruit as many others to the infected side to achieve victory. By asking for the spore back, she is able to control where it goes. Oling wins when they and the turned account for 50% or more of the total living players, so he is happy when this happens. He knows she is turned because the hosts know of all turned players at all time. The hosts cannot be turned by receiving it, so he isn't afraid of having it sent to him. Since the town needs to kill/lynch the captain, second in command and the engineer to win, diverting the attention to the spore is a good plan. We, as townies, don't need to kill any of the turned; we just need to ensure they and the hosts don't account for at least half of the players.

The normal way of thinking (to me) of starting the game would be to send the spore to a passenger. We have all seen Oling be as good at mafia as anyone. He's crafty enough to either send it to another host to create confusion and deception, or play it off as though he received it himself when he's already turned someone.

If there was a counterclaim on Pux's anomaly it would help my tinfoil hat theory. It's not me, so this isn't a cryptic message like actieStick. I'd love to believe Pux is the anomaly, but in mafia I've been led astray many times. I want to believe her, but I don't want everyone to simply follow and confirm her town because she claimed anomaly and was vouched for by Oling. Everyone in Smash Bros thought HG15 was town for the vast majority of the game as well. That turned out poorly for us.

[Timbo]

Attacking HG at this point of the game does not make any sense.

1: He is our most prolific scum hunter(a lot more so than many of us here)
2: He has not fallen into any scummy patterns.
3: He is playing his typical abrasive self unlike the last game where he just followed along and presented theories but never pressed anything.
4: An active hunter is going to be wrong many times. Odds are not on their side.
5: He identified my prime suspect dissentowner for exactly the same reasons I pointed out.
6: His CP Mafia game posting style makes him very easy to hate

Now lets look at classic scummy behaviour.
1: Posting posts that summarize but come to no conclusion or course of action. (mrKajz44, dissentownter) AKA Flying under the radar. or Pissing around
2: Posting posts that end with "I must go back and read some more."(mrkajz44) Baisically a Scat post)
3: After doing scum action #2 they often return with Scum action #1 (mrkajz44)
4: They make a post hinting on the suspicion of another player and then vanish until it is vote time.
5: Change of posting style (dissentowner) Has played in All CP mafia games and is doing to much #1
6: Get behind accusations that have very thin evidence. (mrkajz44)
7: Rather than defend their actions they choose to attack. (dissentowner)

Exceptions to the rule ... well Oling lol he is a paradox wrapped in an enigma. Now maybe HG15 has taken a page from the Oling book but I cannot find any evidence of it at this point.

So in light of the above
Vote: dissentowner
For now, in light of the past day mrkajz44 is also a very strong candidate.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Crazy, tinfoil hat, conspiracy theory time!

Oling's a host. Puxlut received the spore on day 0 and is now infected..

Let's stop you right there. If Puxlut is turned (I know she's not) or host the real Genetic Anomaly needs to speak up now.

If not, we have to assume she's the Genetic Anomaly. Period.

[Timbo]

Sorry
my post #4 in scummy behaviour I forgot to add (dissentowner)

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Let's stop you right there. If Puxlut is turned (I know she's not) or host the real Genetic Anomaly needs to speak up now.

If not, we have to assume she's the Genetic Anomaly. Period.

I wish you had put a picture of Kanye West interrupting Taylor Swift with this post. I would have laughed.

Let's suppose Pux is lying and there is the real Anomaly that can make a counterclaim. What's the downfall for this person to admitting they are the GA? Once again, this isn't a cryptic message. I'm not the GA. I'd just like to know some reasons.

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I wish you had put a picture of Kanye West interrupting Taylor Swift with this post. I would have laughed.

Let's suppose Pux is lying and there is the real Anomaly that can make a counterclaim. What's the downfall for this person to admitting they are the GA? Once again, this isn't a cryptic message. I'm not the GA. I'd just like to know some reasons.

The downfall would be that it would turn into a who do you believe more? Pux or the person making the claim. If its someone who doesn't have the best standing at the moment, I could see them not getting much traction as Pux seems to generally have the trust of most people.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I wish you had put a picture of Kanye West interrupting Taylor Swift with this post. I would have laughed.

Let's suppose Pux is lying and there is the real Anomaly that can make a counterclaim. What's the downfall for this person to admitting they are the GA? Once again, this isn't a cryptic message. I'm not the GA. I'd just like to know some reasons.

None whatsoever. If someone else is the real genetic anomaly, outing Puxlut as a liar would be the most pro-town play you could do, as you'd be outing either a host or a turned, and there's no downside to yourself as the mafia doesn't have a night kill.

[devo22]

I fail to see why Pux would claim anomaly if she isn't. She would have to assume that the real anomaly would quickly counterclaim, in which case Pux and the other one would be prime lynch targets. I doubt a host would sacrifice him/herself just to get the anomaly out of the game, that's too big of a price IMO.

[Timbo]

It took no prodding or lynch for Puxlut to come forward. With all of the significant time that has passed since her admission anyone now claiming Anomaly would have significantly less credibility.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Timbo

It took no prodding or lynch for Puxlut to come forward. With all of the significant time that has passed since her admission anyone now claiming Anomaly would have significantly less credibility.

I think this is what threw me off. I would have waited to reveal a little further down the road. I know we are trying to have as many confirmed townies as possible, but I don't get what it accomplished at this point. I'm not saying it was wrong. I'm saying I didn't understand it. Maybe that's what makes it right! I think I would have waited at least a game day before revealing.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I think this is what threw me off. I would have waited to reveal a little further down the road. I know we are trying to have as many confirmed townies as possible, but I don't get what it accomplished at this point. I'm not saying it was wrong. I'm saying I didn't understand it. Maybe that's what makes it right! I think I would have waited at least a game day before revealing.

We already talked about why the reveal makes sense though.

You have a confirmed townie and more than likely the hosts/infected would avoid passing them the spore as it would waste a day for them. Passing the anomaly is a greater benefit to the town than it is the hosts.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I think this is what threw me off. I would have waited to reveal a little further down the road. I know we are trying to have as many confirmed townies as possible, but I don't get what it accomplished at this point. I'm not saying it was wrong. I'm saying I didn't understand it. Maybe that's what makes it right! I think I would have waited at least a game day before revealing.

How would a fake reveal help the host though?

Obviously I know she's not turned, so a fake reveal and counterclaim would mean a 50/50 chance of being lynched on the spot or a 100% chance of being lynched tomorrow (if the other claim was lynched and revealed Genetic Anomaly). That's obviously good for the town getting rid of a host.

In other games, a mafia member saying they are cop/doctor would allow them to kill the real one with a counterclaim, here they would have 0 chance of killing the Genetic Anomaly for at least 3 days.

Now in your scenario where I am host and she is turned. The Government Agent might as well check her tonight anyways then, so if she's turned she just dies and I would get lynched tomorrow.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I think this is what threw me off. I would have waited to reveal a little further down the road. I know we are trying to have as many confirmed townies as possible, but I don't get what it accomplished at this point. I'm not saying it was wrong. I'm saying I didn't understand it. Maybe that's what makes it right! I think I would have waited at least a game day before revealing.

I can see Puxlut feeling burdened by it and since we discussed a reveal as not detrimental she took advantage of unburdening herself from having something hidden and she did not feel comfortable playing with it hidden.
No offence to Puxlut
This theory applies only to Puxlut IMO.

I'm just horrible at keeping secrets. Look at how I screwed up my mason power last game? I just couldn't see any reason to stay revealed. It's a useless power except to keep the spore out of play. But that is moot right now if we can believe Oling passed the spore to Girly, because with her dying before she could pass it, it went back to the Captain. I hope the GA investigated Oling. I would hope he (or she) is staying quiet because nobody has been turned on who they checked out. They really don't need to reveal. Whenever someone dies, we know that they've done their job.
I would agree to be the hammer on one of the 2 or 3 suspects that you guys could agree on.
What I would like to see is HG STFU for a little bit and get more talk from everyone else. Especially Lego Man. Don't say your quality is better than quantity. I think the less posts someone makes it's easier to hide. When you make one post a day, you have 24 hours to form a well thought out message that has no slips. Nice way to make sure you don't screw up. I would say the bottom third of the players need to stop posting more. And don't say it's noise!!!!! That's BS! That is how we hunt scum!

[Mazrim]

Vote Count

With 15 alive, it takes 8 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 5 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn't Voted (8): devo22, bizaro86, Puxlut, Peanut, SebC, Lego Man, mrkajz44, East Coast Flame

Voted:
dissentowner (2): Hockeyguy15, Timbo
Hockeyguy15 (2): dissentowner, Party Elephant
SebC (1): GGG
Lego Man (1): squiggs96
Timbo (1): Oling_Roachinen

The deadline is Friday, June 5th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

[SebC]

I've sent Mazrim a PM. I want to disclose this before he might say anything about it here so you know it was my idea. I think the town might have a shot to win the game today.