Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[Pittsy]

Originally Posted by getbak

Based on Treliving's comments after the trade that they're not worried about needing to protect Lucic in the expansion draft, I agree with your theory that part of the trade agreement was a gentleman's agreement that he will waive the NMC for the expansion draft.

They can't officially make the request until sometime in early 2021, but I'm sure they've already made the agreement to help accommodate the deal.


Yeah, any discussion about waiving the NMC should be more about who the Flames will need to protect than any actual thought about Seattle taking Lucic in the expansion draft.

They don’t really need to protect him, necessarily. If they choose to part ways with him after this season (via buyout), the Flames are only on the hook for $500K cash for 6 years; the cap hit is much worse mind you, but saves the owners ~$9M in cash compared to buying out Neal after this season. Lucic’s salary over the last 3 years of the deal are very bonus-heavy, which makes the buyout scenario more palatable (from a pure dollars and cents perspective).

https://puckpedia.com/player/milan-l...ut?s=2020-2021

https://puckpedia.com/player/james-n...ut?s=2020-2021

[Dajazz]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

^You assume they could have gotten anything. Even with throwing in a million or two, I'm not convinced of that. I think the fits likely were Lucic, Eriksson or nada.

Maybe, then again Treliving wanted Lucic. I think there would have been takers on Neal, goal scoring is hard, very hard. Yes, he is one dimensional and has unsustainable luck right now - but I don’t think any GM in the league said “Neal is done” and thought he would be a 7-goal scorer moving forward.

He didn’t fit, he sulked, he sucked. He can (obviously) still score some goals, Lucic can’t. Neither can Lucic be exposed in the expansion draft. So that makes its even worse.

I am a great fan of Treliving, but this trade feels urgh.

[crapshoot]

I know what the optics of the trade are at this point in time of course, but I just have to say that if the choice is between last years Neal and this years Lucic I would still pick this years Lucic, and it's not really that close. That is what I believe the trade was all about, and it really doesn't bother me at all at this point.

Lucic will score a few goals, he may even go on a bit of a streak at some point, and he will be a presence and a hard worker at all times. Lucic however will not sulk and complain about ice time or linemates, and he will not cruise around the entire season with a defeated look on his face. I bet that James Neal will revert back to that before this season is over though.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Not to pick on you Bingo... okay, somewhat to pick on you... but I love how you're trying to argue that Lucic being a "non event player" would be a good thing. I get what you are trying to say, but at the same time, the message that comes down is "best case scenario is that he's invisible."

Honestly, we probably should have just held on to Neal then. Because we already knew invisible was what we would get out of him.

Yeah close ... don't hurt you, don't really help you, but play physical and act as a deterrent.

But if Neal was invisible maybe he could have stayed. He got filled in five on five and didn't produce at all, wasn't physical. Last on the team in any play driving metric, WAR, goals above replacement. He was a boat anchor.

So from that perspective ... give me the guy that is invisible five on five but a little scary for sure.

[TheScorpion]

Which buyout would you rather have?

BUYOUT A

Year 1: $3.5 million
Year 2: $4.8 million
Year 3: $510,000
Year 4: $510,000

BUYOUT B

Year 1: $1.9 million
Year 2: $1.9 million
Year 3: $1.9 million
Year 4: $1.9 million

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Which buyout would you rather have?

BUYOUT A

Year 1: $3.5 million
Year 2: $4.8 million
Year 3: $510,000
Year 4: $510,000

BUYOUT B

Year 1: $1.9 million
Year 2: $1.9 million
Year 3: $1.9 million
Year 4: $1.9 million

Honestly kind of tough when Gaudreau (and now Tkachuk) is looking for a raise in that 2nd year.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Dajazz

Maybe, then again Treliving wanted Lucic. I think there would have been takers on Neal, goal scoring is hard, very hard. Yes, he is one dimensional and has unsustainable luck right now - but I don’t think any GM in the league said “Neal is done” and thought he would be a 7-goal scorer moving forward.

He didn’t fit, he sulked, he sucked. He can (obviously) still score some goals, Lucic can’t. Neither can Lucic be exposed in the expansion draft. So that makes its even worse.

I am a great fan of Treliving, but this trade feels urgh.

I just don't think there were other options on the table. I think the very result of the trade tells you how badly the hockey world perceived Neal after last season.

Treliving knows the Lucic is contract is less managable. I think he was told he couldn't buy Neal out, worked all summer to find something that works and then took the Edmonton deal for owner cash savings, some cap space and the hope that it helps the room.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Honestly kind of tough when Gaudreau is looking for a raise in that 2nd year.

Tough, sure. Is it tougher, though? The alternative is to pay Lucic $5.25 million. That's a $400,000 saving that year... and then a ridiculously huge saving the two years after that.

Honestly, I think this buyout structure might be preferable to Neal's. Gets it all out of the way quickly.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Honestly kind of tough when Gaudreau (and now Tkachuk) is looking for a raise in that 2nd year.

Not tough for me at all.

Having 5 million dollars in unused cap space from buyouts in the last year of contention is insanity.

It's already had enough with 2.5 million sitting idle right now voluntarily doubling that and operating with a 76 million dollar cap while everyone else is dealing with 81 is an unmitigated disaster

[kevman]

Originally Posted by Dajazz

He wanted Lucic, and when Tre wants - he gets.

I don't for a second think Tre wanted Lucic and was going to target him at all costs.

The entire NHL knew Neals time in Calgary was done. When you spend the season trying to justify the signing by saying "just wait until the playoffs" and he goes and gets himself benched in the playoffs is a pretty clear sign where he stood in the organization. Neals value sunk so low last year that Lucic was the BEST they could get for him. Let that sink in, Neal was so worthless that Lucic was the best option they had.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Not tough for me at all.

Having 5 million dollars in unused cap space from buyouts in the last year of contention is insanity.

It's already had enough with 2.5 million sitting idle right now voluntarily doubling that and operating with a 76 million dollar cap while everyone else is dealing with 81 is an unmitigated disaster

I roll my eyes at the dramatic language

The team just last year got 107 points with 5.75 of dead cap space and dead on ice space with James Neal. That allocation of 5.75 was as much of an “unmitigated disaster” as anything you are talking about

You think many teams are getting better out of their 81 million. Look at the contracts for Lindholm, Gaudreau, etc. A bevy of awesome contracts create room for a potential dud. Obviously better if all contracts are perfect but “unmitigated disaster”? Haha.

So dramatic

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I roll my eyes at the dramatic language

The team just last year got 107 points with 5.75 of dead cap space and dead on ice space with James Neal. That allocation of 5.75 was as much of an “unmitigated disaster” as anything you are talking about

You think many teams are getting better out of their 81 million. Look at the contracts for Lindholm, Gaudreau, etc. A bevy of awesome contracts create room for a potential dud. Obviously better if all contracts are perfect but “unmitigated disaster”? Haha.

So dramatic

Yeah, all summer long it's been like the Flames are the only team with cap issues, no other team underperformed in the POs, etc. (Not just from this poster). Like Treliving's mistake on Neal isn't similar to mistakes made by a ton of GMs, including historically good ones, through time.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by Dajazz

Maybe, then again Treliving wanted Lucic. I think there would have been takers on Neal, goal scoring is hard, very hard. Yes, he is one dimensional and has unsustainable luck right now - but I don’t think any GM in the league said “Neal is done” and thought he would be a 7-goal scorer moving forward.

He didn’t fit, he sulked, he sucked. He can (obviously) still score some goals, Lucic can’t. Neither can Lucic be exposed in the expansion draft. So that makes its even worse.

I am a great fan of Treliving, but this trade feels urgh.

Just to clarify that in the trade this problem was (supposedly) nullified.

Lucic can be exposed as a condition (or gentleman's agreement it seemed) of the trade

[Bingo]

I'm not one to give Treliving a pass on the UFA contracts that he has signed, it's certainly the part of his repertoire that needs massaging (or nixxing)

But once a mistake has happened I don't tend to dwell on it (trader brain), you just manage it.

If they deem buying out Lucic and replacing him with a young player helps the team you do it. If you don't think that helps you don't. But wallowing on past mistakes doesn't do a whole lot to fix problems.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm not one to give Treliving a pass on the UFA contracts that he has signed, it's certainly the part of his repertoire that needs massaging (or nixxing)

But once a mistake has happened I don't tend to dwell on it (trader brain), you just manage it.

If they deem buying out Lucic and replacing him with a young player helps the team you do it. If you don't think that helps you don't. But wallowing on past mistakes doesn't do a whole lot to fix problems.

I think this is how Treliving deals with it too. His treatment of players he's signed or traded for tells me he's not married to his decisions.

As for UFAs I think Treliving gets a little caught in the bidding war aspect of UFAs sometimes. So do we. We all congratulated the Flames on beating other teams to Morrison, Czarnik and Foo, and hated it when they didn't get other guys (who were equally non-factors). This kind of translates to older guys. So yeah, Treliving needs to rein himself in a bit on UFAs, particularly with the new RFA landscape.

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm not one to give Treliving a pass on the UFA contracts that he has signed, it's certainly the part of his repertoire that needs massaging (or nixxing)

But once a mistake has happened I don't tend to dwell on it (trader brain), you just manage it.

If they deem buying out Lucic and replacing him with a young player helps the team you do it. If you don't think that helps you don't. But wallowing on past mistakes doesn't do a whole lot to fix problems.

Was there really nothing Treliving could’ve done to work with Peters and put Neal in more of a position to succeed? A little foresight when things were starting to go sideways for him may have gone a long way. And who knows, maybe that did happen behind closed doors. But the results speak for themselves.

We never saw this version of Neal last year. And I’m not sure saddling him with marginal players like Bennett and Jankowski was the right way to get his confidence back.

I’m not convinced Treliving and the coaching staff did all they could to prevent this before it got so bad he was only tradeable for the worst contract in the league. Sure, you don’t want to capitulate to sulkers all the time, but you also don’t want to sit back and let the situation between coach and player fester so bad you can only fix it by taking on an objectively worse player and shooting yourself in the foot. Which is exactly how it was handled.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

Was there really nothing Treliving could’ve done to work with Peters and put Neal in more of a position to succeed? A little foresight when things were starting to go sideways for him may have gone a long way. And who knows, maybe that did happen behind closed doors. But the results speak for themselves.

We never saw this version of Neal last year. And I’m not sure saddling him with marginal players like Bennett and Jankowski was the right way to get his confidence back.

I’m not convinced Treliving and the coaching staff did all they could to prevent this before it got so bad he was only tradeable for the worst contract in the league. Sure, you don’t want to capitulate to sulkers all the time, but you also don’t want to sit back and let the situation between coach and player fester so bad you can only fix it by taking on an objectively worse player and shooting yourself in the foot. Which is exactly how it was handled.

Neal's ice time stats ...

Five on Five time

With at least one of Calgary's top five forwards 41%

If you add in Derek Ryan (tied for fourth in Oilers forward scoring last year) 58%

If you add in Michael Frolik (would have been 5th in Oilers forward scoring last year) 61%

James Neal had lots of opportunity, don't let his recollection set the narrative.

[Enoch Root]

The narrative of how last year played out is starting to change here.

I didn't see Peters letting things fester. I didn't see Neal riding the pine or being treated poorly.

I saw Neal being given regular ice time, all season long - arguably, too much of it. I saw a fanbase that questioned, on an almost daily basis, why Neal was getting so much ice time and PP time, despite his play not warranting it. There were countless posts throughout the season lamenting the fact that Neal was getting more ice time than Ryan, Bennett, Mangiapane and Frolik.

Neal was 6th in ice time, behind the big 5. Did he deserve that? It was almost unanimous that he did not. However, many felt that we needed to get Neal going, so you could argue that it made sense.

Suggesting that Peters and Treliving did nothing, or sat around and let things fester is laughable. Neal garnered a tremendous amount of attention last year. The only thing he didn't get was a gifted spot on the top line (which would have been completely unjust if he had). Yet, even saying that, he did get the shift after penalties with the top line, for much of the year - did he do anything with that which would have suggested that he might have warranted more opportunity? Nope.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

Was there really nothing Treliving could’ve done to work with Peters and put Neal in more of a position to succeed?

Neal started with the top PP unit and failed. Neal started playing top 6 minutes and failed. Neal was moved down to the 2nd PP unit and failed. Neal was moved to the 3rd liner and failed.

What should have Peters done exactly? Take time away from players that are actually playing well and producing just to stroke Neal's massive ego?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

We never saw this version of Neal last year. And I’m not sure saddling him with marginal players like Bennett and Jankowski was the right way to get his confidence back.

At 5v5 it's the exact same Neal though.

The only difference is a 50% shooting percentage on the top PP with Draisaitl and McDavid.

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The big thing about PP scoring IMO is that it's really the unit that is generating the goals, it's not like Neal is doing anything amazing here to generate the opportunities for himself.

So if you look at the Oilers top PP unit over the first 6 games last year vs this year.

(Using McDavid as the proxy for the first unit.)

Last Year:

PP Time: 23:12
Shots: 22
Goals For: 5
Goals Against: 0
Shooting Percentage: 22.3%
Expected Goals For/60: 9.01

This Year:

PP Time: 26:16
Shots: 29
Goals For: 8
Goals Against: 1
Shooting Percentage: 27.6%
Expected Goals For / 60: 8.89

Lucic was on the top PP for most of those first 6 games last year.

So really from a PP effectiveness perspective they are generating the same rate of shots, and expected goals as they were last year. They just have a better shooting percentage this year, and it's Neal scoring the goals instead of McDavid/RNH/Drai.

Once again it's great for the optics of the trade for Edmonton and for Neal personally - but really once the shooting percentages normalizes from him shooting 50% on the PP they likely aren't much better as a PP unit than they were last year.

And fact of the matter is both of the guys are still bad at 5v5.

Neal: CF - 48.8%, xGF%- 44.5%
Lucic: CF - 46.4%. xGF% - 46.0%

And James Neal is very much the same player at 5v5 as he was in Calgary for the first 6 games here.

First 6 games in Calgary at even strength: Goals 1, Shots 8, ixG - 0.61, xGF%-44.8%
First 6 games in Edmonton at even strength: Goals 2, Shots 9, ixG-0.41, xGF% - 44.5%

But for sure... as long as he keeps shooting 50% on the PP while being force fed PP minutes with Draisaitl, and McDavid that trade is going to look great for them.