Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community
Old 05-05-2019, 12:09 PM   #81
TheyCallMeBruce
Likes Cartoons
 
TheyCallMeBruce's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Exp:
Default

Apparently, the weekend estimates where considered conservative. So we might be looking at higher numbers than $146 mil
TheyCallMeBruce is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2019, 12:16 PM   #82
Locke
Franchise Player
 
Locke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Income Tax Central
Exp:
Default

That is just an astonishing amount of money for a movie.

Now that tax season is over I might just have to take a morning to go and see it.
__________________
The Beatings Shall Continue Until Morale Improves!

This Post Has Been Distilled for the Eradication of Seemingly Incurable Sadness.

If you are flammable and have legs, you are never blocking a Fire Exit. - Mitch Hedberg
Locke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2019, 12:25 PM   #83
GGG
Franchise Player
 
GGG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlameOn View Post
It's already at $2.25B and that's before the 2nd weekend is up. It will break Avatar, it's just a matter of sooner or later at this point.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4509&p=.htm
You are assuming that all regions have the same hold rate. You need to take out the 575 million from China and then look at it.

So it has 2.19 billion today - .575 from China = 1.61 in areas still making money. It needs 2.78 - .6 = 2.18 billion.

So in general it needs another 600 million or so from territories that grossed 1.6 billion so far. If it behaves like Captain America Civil War it would only get 1.35 multiplier from today forward and fall just short.
GGG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2019, 08:30 PM   #84
GGG
Franchise Player
 
GGG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Exp:
Default

Going to be real tight now to beat Worldwide Avatar now.

Domestically it earned about the same as Infinity War did in its 3rd weekend. So this means the best it can do is likely the 130 million that IW did post 3rd weekend. However since its previous drops have been higher than IW there is a reasonable chance that it continues to drop faster.

If it earns like Civil War from here on out it would end up with another 116 million. It’s 3rd weekend drops were also higher than Civil War.

If it follows Batman vs Superman which had really bad legs it would earn something in the range of 93 million more. The Saturday /Sunday drops of BvS were less than Endgame.

So it really depends if after this weekend it levels of to Normal levels or continues to drop. Domestically a 93-130 finish would be 816-850

Endgame is up to 610 in China which is mostly done so say 625-650 from China.

So that is 1.441 to 1.5 billion from Domestic and China leaving it needing 1.288-1.347 to reach Avatars 2.788 Billion. Its eared 1.152 form Oversees - China so far leaving it 136 - 195 million to go. It made 82 million over the weekend. So if you follow some of the same multiples as above for what’s remaining you get 100 million - 165 million left in over sees minus China.

So a final range for Endgame of 2.693 - 2.820 billion.

So Still in the coin flip range but looking less likely now then before the weekend. Needs a really good hold this week to get back on track.
GGG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2019, 11:31 PM   #85
Strange Brew
Franchise Player
 
Strange Brew's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Exp:
Default

I don’t think there’s much reason for the holds to improve so I think you’re looking at 2nd all time. Not exactly shabby.

Kind of makes you appreciate the massive business Avatar did all the more. While it didn’t have the built in audience Endgame did, it was more accessible as you didn’t need to have watched movies before it.
Strange Brew is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2019, 10:41 AM   #86
troutman
Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
 
troutman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Winebar Kensington
Exp:
Default

I saw Avatar - I can't really remember anything about the plot. How did it do so well?
__________________
https://www.mergenlaw.com/
http://cjsw.com/program/fossil-records/
twitter/instagram @troutman1966
troutman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2019, 10:47 AM   #87
red sky
#1 Goaltender
 
red sky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Exp:
Default

First movie that really showcased 3D capabilities if I recall correctly.

Avatar was never well known for the plot.
red sky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2019, 10:49 AM   #88
GGG
Franchise Player
 
GGG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman View Post
I saw Avatar - I can't really remember anything about the plot. How did it do so well?
It was the first 3D movie that worked. It was a visual spectacle that set a new bar for special effects. You had to see it in theatre.

The plot itself isn’t great. Standard Eviromentaists/ indigenous vs Military Industrial complex.

It also had the Christmas season and no competition post Christmas like the force awakens and Titanic did. When movies hit at Christmas their legs are much better.

The crazy part about Avatar is it didn’t hit 2.5 billion for 72 days. It has steady numbers for two months and then earned another 250 million after.
GGG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2019, 10:50 AM   #89
Fuzz
Franchise Player
 
Fuzz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman View Post
I saw Avatar - I can't really remember anything about the plot. How did it do so well?
It was all about the 3D. Lots of people went to see it multiple times. I even saw it in the theatre, and I very rarely go, just for the 3D. It's not a great movie if you watch it again at home.
Fuzz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2019, 11:20 AM   #90
zamler
Lifetime Suspension
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG View Post
The crazy part about Avatar is it didn’t hit 2.5 billion for 72 days. It has steady numbers for two months and then earned another 250 million after.
Same for Titanic the film never had a huge opening it drip dripped its way to a massive take.

I think this list is up to date doesn't look like Endgame will be able to overtake Avatar inflation adjusted. Non adjusted is a done deal.
zamler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2019, 12:05 PM   #91
GGG
Franchise Player
 
GGG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by zamler View Post
Same for Titanic the film never had a huge opening it drip dripped its way to a massive take.

I think this list is up to date doesn't look like Endgame will be able to overtake Avatar inflation adjusted. Non adjusted is a done deal.
Inflation isn’t fair to account for world wide unless you also account for foreign exchange. The Peso is roughly half the value it used to be and the Euro is 50% lower.

Why do you think non-adjusted is a sure thing? I’d say just below 50/50 right now.
GGG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2019, 12:24 PM   #92
Strange Brew
Franchise Player
 
Strange Brew's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Exp:
Default

What was the China market like when Avatar came out? I have to think the overall Chinese box office has grown significantly since then, giving movies like Endgame a huge advantage when comparing global $'s.
Strange Brew is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2019, 12:41 PM   #93
getbak
Franchise Player
 
getbak's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Brew View Post
What was the China market like when Avatar came out? I have to think the overall Chinese box office has grown significantly since then, giving movies like Endgame a huge advantage when comparing global $'s.
China was just starting to be a major player in the international box office when Avatar came out.

Avatar made about 10% of its total in China. So far, Endgame has made about 1/3 of its money in China.

Avatar made over $100 million US in 9 foreign markets. Endgame has only topped $100 million US in 1 foreign market and has reached $70 million in only 2 more.
__________________
Turn up the good, turn down the suck!
getbak is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to getbak For This Useful Post:
Old 05-13-2019, 12:42 PM   #94
blankall
Ate 100 Treadmills
 
blankall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Brew View Post
What was the China market like when Avatar came out? I have to think the overall Chinese box office has grown significantly since then, giving movies like Endgame a huge advantage when comparing global $'s.
The Chinese market was almost non-existent up until a few years ago. Not only did the populace have less disposable income, but the government was far stricter on what movies were allowed in and when/where they could be played.

Avatar did only $204 million in China vs. End Game's $575 so far.

Avatar had really incredible numbers in Europe though. $175 million in France.
blankall is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to blankall For This Useful Post:
Old 05-13-2019, 12:58 PM   #95
GGG
Franchise Player
 
GGG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Exp:
Default

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index

Using the generic US dollar Index the 2009/2010 value is 77-78 and the 2018 value is 96. So that is a 24% increase on the Foreign Box Office due to exchange. So if you take the 2 Billion that Avatar earned and covert it to US foreign exchange knocks off about 400 million from the foreign total which roughly offsets the 485 million change due to inflation.

This doesn't account for how huge avatar was in Europe France example above the exchange rate from Dec 2009 to April 2010 ranged from .70-.75 USD per Euro. Today's rate is .89. So going from .7 to .89 puts France's take down to 137 compared to Frances Endgame of about 50 million.

So still a huge gap but it does offset inflation concerns when comparing the movies.
GGG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2019, 11:13 PM   #96
zamler
Lifetime Suspension
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG View Post
Inflation isn’t fair to account for world wide unless you also account for foreign exchange. The Peso is roughly half the value it used to be and the Euro is 50% lower.
If you don't account for inflation then Endgame has long surpassed Star Wars A New Hope for example. How is that fair?
Quote:
Why do you think non-adjusted is a sure thing? I’d say just below 50/50 right now.
Only has to make another $300 million and change.

edit - if you read the Wiki page the math behind the chart is fairly complex and comprehensive I think it's a good estimate.

Last edited by zamler; 05-13-2019 at 11:18 PM.
zamler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2019, 07:25 AM   #97
Nadal Fan
Franchise Player
 
Nadal Fan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Exp:
Default

Does anyone know if they show box office results for just Canada? Everywhere I look it's US&Canada. Is that just because we are so small it's not that much or is it just easier to combine the two? I always found that odd.
Nadal Fan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2019, 07:36 AM   #98
GGG
Franchise Player
 
GGG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nadal Fan View Post
Does anyone know if they show box office results for just Canada? Everywhere I look it's US&Canada. Is that just because we are so small it's not that much or is it just easier to combine the two? I always found that odd.
I think it’s related to the release dates always being the same so it’s tracked as one.
GGG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2019, 09:28 AM   #99
Oling_Roachinen
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Exp:
Default

Nah, it dates back to the early years of the theatres and the vertically integrated monopoly Hollywood had over Canada. Pretty much all Canadian film distribution was American owned so they just included it in the domestic totals.

And because of the sale percentage difference in domestic vs international, it just makes sense to keep including it (i.e. Domestic movies might see the Studio take in 50% of box office sales and the theatres see 50%, Internationally it differs greatly with the studios seeing significantly less in China, for example).
Oling_Roachinen is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Oling_Roachinen For This Useful Post:
Old 05-14-2019, 09:54 AM   #100
blankall
Ate 100 Treadmills
 
blankall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG View Post
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index

Using the generic US dollar Index the 2009/2010 value is 77-78 and the 2018 value is 96. So that is a 24% increase on the Foreign Box Office due to exchange. So if you take the 2 Billion that Avatar earned and covert it to US foreign exchange knocks off about 400 million from the foreign total which roughly offsets the 485 million change due to inflation.

This doesn't account for how huge avatar was in Europe France example above the exchange rate from Dec 2009 to April 2010 ranged from .70-.75 USD per Euro. Today's rate is .89. So going from .7 to .89 puts France's take down to 137 compared to Frances Endgame of about 50 million.

So still a huge gap but it does offset inflation concerns when comparing the movies.
You cannot look at the dollar exchange like that. Inflation is not offset that way. The calculation is far more complex. Also that index doesn't include China, which is Endgame's biggest international contributor.
blankall is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:07 AM.

Calgary Flames
2023-24




Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright Calgarypuck 2021