05-05-2019, 12:09 PM
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#81
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Likes Cartoons
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Apparently, the weekend estimates where considered conservative. So we might be looking at higher numbers than $146 mil
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05-05-2019, 12:16 PM
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#82
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Income Tax Central
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That is just an astonishing amount of money for a movie.
Now that tax season is over I might just have to take a morning to go and see it.
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05-05-2019, 12:25 PM
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#83
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlameOn
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You are assuming that all regions have the same hold rate. You need to take out the 575 million from China and then look at it.
So it has 2.19 billion today - .575 from China = 1.61 in areas still making money. It needs 2.78 - .6 = 2.18 billion.
So in general it needs another 600 million or so from territories that grossed 1.6 billion so far. If it behaves like Captain America Civil War it would only get 1.35 multiplier from today forward and fall just short.
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05-12-2019, 11:31 PM
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#85
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Franchise Player
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I don’t think there’s much reason for the holds to improve so I think you’re looking at 2nd all time. Not exactly shabby.
Kind of makes you appreciate the massive business Avatar did all the more. While it didn’t have the built in audience Endgame did, it was more accessible as you didn’t need to have watched movies before it.
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05-13-2019, 10:41 AM
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#86
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Winebar Kensington
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I saw Avatar - I can't really remember anything about the plot. How did it do so well?
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05-13-2019, 10:47 AM
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#87
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#1 Goaltender
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First movie that really showcased 3D capabilities if I recall correctly.
Avatar was never well known for the plot.
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05-13-2019, 10:49 AM
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#88
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
I saw Avatar - I can't really remember anything about the plot. How did it do so well?
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It was the first 3D movie that worked. It was a visual spectacle that set a new bar for special effects. You had to see it in theatre.
The plot itself isn’t great. Standard Eviromentaists/ indigenous vs Military Industrial complex.
It also had the Christmas season and no competition post Christmas like the force awakens and Titanic did. When movies hit at Christmas their legs are much better.
The crazy part about Avatar is it didn’t hit 2.5 billion for 72 days. It has steady numbers for two months and then earned another 250 million after.
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05-13-2019, 10:50 AM
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#89
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
I saw Avatar - I can't really remember anything about the plot. How did it do so well?
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It was all about the 3D. Lots of people went to see it multiple times. I even saw it in the theatre, and I very rarely go, just for the 3D. It's not a great movie if you watch it again at home.
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05-13-2019, 11:20 AM
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#90
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Lifetime Suspension
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
The crazy part about Avatar is it didn’t hit 2.5 billion for 72 days. It has steady numbers for two months and then earned another 250 million after.
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Same for Titanic the film never had a huge opening it drip dripped its way to a massive take.
I think this list is up to date doesn't look like Endgame will be able to overtake Avatar inflation adjusted. Non adjusted is a done deal.
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05-13-2019, 12:05 PM
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#91
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zamler
Same for Titanic the film never had a huge opening it drip dripped its way to a massive take.
I think this list is up to date doesn't look like Endgame will be able to overtake Avatar inflation adjusted. Non adjusted is a done deal.
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Inflation isn’t fair to account for world wide unless you also account for foreign exchange. The Peso is roughly half the value it used to be and the Euro is 50% lower.
Why do you think non-adjusted is a sure thing? I’d say just below 50/50 right now.
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05-13-2019, 12:24 PM
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#92
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Franchise Player
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What was the China market like when Avatar came out? I have to think the overall Chinese box office has grown significantly since then, giving movies like Endgame a huge advantage when comparing global $'s.
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05-13-2019, 12:41 PM
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#93
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Brew
What was the China market like when Avatar came out? I have to think the overall Chinese box office has grown significantly since then, giving movies like Endgame a huge advantage when comparing global $'s.
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China was just starting to be a major player in the international box office when Avatar came out.
Avatar made about 10% of its total in China. So far, Endgame has made about 1/3 of its money in China.
Avatar made over $100 million US in 9 foreign markets. Endgame has only topped $100 million US in 1 foreign market and has reached $70 million in only 2 more.
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05-13-2019, 12:42 PM
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#94
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Ate 100 Treadmills
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Brew
What was the China market like when Avatar came out? I have to think the overall Chinese box office has grown significantly since then, giving movies like Endgame a huge advantage when comparing global $'s.
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The Chinese market was almost non-existent up until a few years ago. Not only did the populace have less disposable income, but the government was far stricter on what movies were allowed in and when/where they could be played.
Avatar did only $204 million in China vs. End Game's $575 so far.
Avatar had really incredible numbers in Europe though. $175 million in France.
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05-13-2019, 12:58 PM
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#95
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Franchise Player
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index
Using the generic US dollar Index the 2009/2010 value is 77-78 and the 2018 value is 96. So that is a 24% increase on the Foreign Box Office due to exchange. So if you take the 2 Billion that Avatar earned and covert it to US foreign exchange knocks off about 400 million from the foreign total which roughly offsets the 485 million change due to inflation.
This doesn't account for how huge avatar was in Europe France example above the exchange rate from Dec 2009 to April 2010 ranged from .70-.75 USD per Euro. Today's rate is .89. So going from .7 to .89 puts France's take down to 137 compared to Frances Endgame of about 50 million.
So still a huge gap but it does offset inflation concerns when comparing the movies.
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05-13-2019, 11:13 PM
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#96
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Lifetime Suspension
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
Inflation isn’t fair to account for world wide unless you also account for foreign exchange. The Peso is roughly half the value it used to be and the Euro is 50% lower.
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If you don't account for inflation then Endgame has long surpassed Star Wars A New Hope for example. How is that fair?
Quote:
Why do you think non-adjusted is a sure thing? I’d say just below 50/50 right now.
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Only has to make another $300 million and change.
edit - if you read the Wiki page the math behind the chart is fairly complex and comprehensive I think it's a good estimate.
Last edited by zamler; 05-13-2019 at 11:18 PM.
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05-14-2019, 07:25 AM
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#97
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Franchise Player
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Does anyone know if they show box office results for just Canada? Everywhere I look it's US&Canada. Is that just because we are so small it's not that much or is it just easier to combine the two? I always found that odd.
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05-14-2019, 07:36 AM
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#98
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nadal Fan
Does anyone know if they show box office results for just Canada? Everywhere I look it's US&Canada. Is that just because we are so small it's not that much or is it just easier to combine the two? I always found that odd.
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I think it’s related to the release dates always being the same so it’s tracked as one.
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05-14-2019, 09:28 AM
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#99
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Franchise Player
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Nah, it dates back to the early years of the theatres and the vertically integrated monopoly Hollywood had over Canada. Pretty much all Canadian film distribution was American owned so they just included it in the domestic totals.
And because of the sale percentage difference in domestic vs international, it just makes sense to keep including it (i.e. Domestic movies might see the Studio take in 50% of box office sales and the theatres see 50%, Internationally it differs greatly with the studios seeing significantly less in China, for example).
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05-14-2019, 09:54 AM
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#100
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Ate 100 Treadmills
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index
Using the generic US dollar Index the 2009/2010 value is 77-78 and the 2018 value is 96. So that is a 24% increase on the Foreign Box Office due to exchange. So if you take the 2 Billion that Avatar earned and covert it to US foreign exchange knocks off about 400 million from the foreign total which roughly offsets the 485 million change due to inflation.
This doesn't account for how huge avatar was in Europe France example above the exchange rate from Dec 2009 to April 2010 ranged from .70-.75 USD per Euro. Today's rate is .89. So going from .7 to .89 puts France's take down to 137 compared to Frances Endgame of about 50 million.
So still a huge gap but it does offset inflation concerns when comparing the movies.
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You cannot look at the dollar exchange like that. Inflation is not offset that way. The calculation is far more complex. Also that index doesn't include China, which is Endgame's biggest international contributor.
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