Edmonton is No Good VIII: There's Still Something in the Water!

[N-E-B]

The Oilers might be better than the Flames sometimes, but Calgary will always be better than Edmonton. Always.

[1qqaaz]

I predict that this will be the highest point per game that McDavid will ever have in his career.

Gretzky's best season also came at the age of 24.
Lemieux's was at the age of 22.
Crosby's was 19.
Yzerman was 23. So was Jagr. Thornton's was 22. Orr was 22, Stasny was 25. Kurri, Lafleur, Trottier, Turgeon, Selanne and Coffrey were young as well.

Basically every player who has had 120+ point seasons had their career season before the age of 25.

Bernie Nicholls (27), Pat Lafontaine (27), Dionne (28) and Adam Oates (30) were older though.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I predict that this will be the highest point per game that McDavid will ever have in his career.

Gretzky's best season also came at the age of 24.
Lemieux's was at the age of 22.
Crosby's was 19.
Yzerman was 23. So was Jagr. Thornton's was 22. Orr was 22, Stasny was 25. Kurri, Lafleur, Trottier, Turgeon, Selanne and Coffrey were young as well.

Basically every player who has had 120+ point seasons had their career season before the age of 25.

Bernie Nicholls (27), Pat Lafontaine (27), Dionne (28) and Adam Oates (30) were older though.

Short season and Canadian division too...some of the worst team D in the league

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Short season and Canadian division too...some of the worst team D in the league

Yes, so I think the same can be said for Auston Matthews and his goal total.

[djsFlames]

Just have to start knocking him on his ass at every opportunity. I mean if Nesterov of all guys can do it.

Where's Cory Sarich when you need him?

[CaptainCrunch]

Lets be honest, when the Oilers make the playoffs its an aberration. You're likely to see Hailey's Comet more in you're life time then the Oilers making the playoffs consistently.


Once again though we see all the outliers, a team that relies on special teams, getting a career season out of a senior citizen in goal and a bunch of career years. Add to a perfect storm of a weak sauce division where the Oilers feasted on the Sens.


They'll get bounced out early. Oiler fans and Staples will scream that this is a sign that the Oilers are serious cup contenders. Then they'll plummet into lottery land again next year and someone will pay for it with a skype call.

[Groot]

Just because media and Oilers fans are all on the McDavid hype train and his current PPG of 1.81. So I wanted to take a look at the PPG versus each team, to see what to possibly expect next season when he faces more than the same 6 opponents.

Toronto - 1.11 PPG, 3 games w/o point
Montreal - 1.14 PPG, 3 games w/o point (2 games remaining)
Vancouver- 1.71, 2 games w/o point (4 games remaining)
Calgary - 1.88 PPG, 3 games w/o point
Ottawa - 2.33 PPG, 1 game w/o point
Winnipeg - 2.44 PPG, 0 games w/o point.

Also to note, the Geoff Ward Flames had the one extremely terrible game where McDavid dropped 5 on them. Without that game the PPG drops to 1.44 for the rest of the season.

He also has 31 powerplay points out of his 91 total, because the Oilers don't have a 2nd PP unit.

So we all know that he's an amazing offensive player, but he has absolutely benefited from playing the same 6 teams 9 to 10 times. He's eaten Ottawa and Winnipeg alive for 9 games each.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Lets be honest, when the Oilers make the playoffs its an aberration. You're likely to see Hailey's Comet more in you're life time then the Oilers making the playoffs consistently.


Once again though we see all the outliers, a team that relies on special teams, getting a career season out of a senior citizen in goal and a bunch of career years. Add to a perfect storm of a weak sauce division where the Oilers feasted on the Sens.


They'll get bounced out early. Oiler fans and Staples will scream that this is a sign that the Oilers are serious cup contenders. Then they'll plummet into lottery land again next year and someone will pay for it with a skype call.

Yup, probably.

They're getting used to career seasons, which is a dangerous game. And even with the career seasons/clips from the small handful of guys that allow the team to compete at all, they don't come close to the Flames' 2nd overall season. That's a low ceiling for a team with two top 5 guys on it.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I predict that this will be the highest point per game that McDavid will ever have in his career.

Gretzky's best season also came at the age of 24.
Lemieux's was at the age of 22.
Crosby's was 19.
Yzerman was 23. So was Jagr. Thornton's was 22. Orr was 22, Stasny was 25. Kurri, Lafleur, Trottier, Turgeon, Selanne and Coffrey were young as well.

Basically every player who has had 120+ point seasons had their career season before the age of 25.

Bernie Nicholls (27), Pat Lafontaine (27), Dionne (28) and Adam Oates (30) were older though.

To your point, prior to his massive 150 pt season, Nicholl’s best season was when he was 23 (100 pts) and then he trended down every year from 24-26. Guess what happened in LA in 88-89 to give him a huge boost? That year can be thrown out IMO.

One outlier is arguably Iginla, who scored 50 goals and 98 points at age 30. However, IMO his best season was at age 23, when he scored 52 goals and 96 points (tops in the league for both) in the dead puck era, and was clearly the best player in the league.

[stang]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Yup, probably.

They're getting used to career seasons, which is a dangerous game. And even with the career seasons/clips from the small handful of guys that allow the team to compete at all, they don't come close to the Flames' 2nd overall season. That's a low ceiling for a team with two top 5 guys on it.

They are on pace for 105 points over 82 games. Flames had 107. That’s pretty close.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by stang

They are on pace for 105 points over 82 games. Flames had 107. That’s pretty close.

Other than the fact that 3/6 of their games are against bottom feeding teams this season (Calgary, Vancouver, Ottawa). If it was a normal season, I think Oilers are a bubble team.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by stang

They are on pace for 105 points over 82 games. Flames had 107. That’s pretty close.

Over a shortened season shooting into a small barrel half full of dead fish that is the North, and still 12th overall.

Doesn't really compare to the Flames season unless you *actually* did it for 82 with the regular matchups, not this prorated nonsense.

I struggle to take your season that seriously when you have 18 points solely from the Senators factoring into it.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by stang

They are on pace for 105 points over 82 games. Flames had 107. That’s pretty close.

2018-19 the Flames were .500 against LV and Boston, went 0-2 v. TB and the Caps, were 1-2 versus St. Louis (the champs), etc. How is Edmonton’s record against those good teams this year? Oh, yeah they didn’t have to play them.

The only really decent team the Oilers have faced is Toronto. How have they done against that team? Oh yeah, .389 against them so far.

[djsFlames]

And in the context of the league as a whole, Toronto is probably regarded as a 7-10 range team.

See, maintaining ones place in the standings over 82 is a greater feat than Oilers fans give it credit for. That's cause they've rarely ever managed it over the last couple decades.

They were fading down the stretch last season, playing awful hockey where they were drastically outplayed into March and likely would've fallen into bubble territory had it fully played out. You can make that pretty educated guess based on how they were trending and how they stacked up vs the Blackhawks.

For a team carried by two-three players though, it makes sense. They get fatigued or are unable to give 100% at some point and the whole team fades as a result without legitimate depth there to pick up the slack or step up in their place.

I guess thats why they call it a team game. You have to endure the rigors of a full season as a group and get there as a group, not just by the hands of two lottery stars that fell into your lap. A war of attrition.

The Oilers are built for great small sample sizes in unusual circumstances though, I'll give them that.

[Weitz]

Better tear down and rebuild the flames then eh?

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Better tear down and rebuild the flames then eh?

Eh maybe. Maybe a retool + Sutter can turn things around in relatively quick order.

Team has been a hell of a lot better since he settled in here and seems to get better after every stretch of consecutive practices without games.

I do know Looch can probably call up Connor for a round of golf a week and a half after we're done with our terrible season.

[stang]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

2018-19 the Flames were .500 against LV and Boston, went 0-2 v. TB and the Caps, were 1-2 versus St. Louis (the champs), etc. How is Edmonton’s record against those good teams this year? Oh, yeah they didn’t have to play them.

The only really decent team the Oilers have faced is Toronto. How have they done against that team? Oh yeah, .389 against them so far.

So you guys went
1-1
1-1
0-2
0-2
1-2


A .375?

What’s your point?

[stang]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Over a shortened season shooting into a small barrel half full of dead fish that is the North, and still 12th overall.

Doesn't really compare to the Flames season unless you *actually* did it for 82 with the regular matchups, not this prorated nonsense.

I struggle to take your season that seriously when you have 18 points solely from the Senators factoring into it.

You’re right

I can’t imagine going back to normal and being in the pacific

In playoffs
Las Vegas
Edmonton

Out
Arizona 50 .472
Calgary 47 .470
Kings 46 .460
Sharks 46 .442
Vancouver 41 .446
Ducks 39 .368

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by stang

They are on pace for 105 points over 82 games. Flames had 107. That’s pretty close.

The Oilers are 12th in the league by point percentage.
Hard to compare that to a Flames team that was 2nd in the league playing against actual defense.
There are 8 teams that are on pace for 110+ points. Don't put much weight in them. Pro-rating against a whole season is especially silly.

That isn't close.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by stang

You’re right

I can’t imagine going back to normal and being in the pacific

In playoffs
Las Vegas
Edmonton

Out
Arizona 50 .472
Calgary 47 .470
Kings 46 .460
Sharks 46 .442
Vancouver 41 .446
Ducks 39 .368

Lol what is this.

Extrapolating from the unusual, 7-8 team division aberration of a season doesn't work to predict a normal season. Just drastically different circumstances with so many variables that you conveniently cast aside.

No, objectively the division isn't great, but neither are the Oilers that great either.

You don't know who has who's number. The Habs have given you guys fits this year and I'd argue they're a terrible team, for example. To just assume you'd walk all over those teams, some of which may have your number in a similar way, based on your points percentage which was inflated by the Senators, doesn't just translate like that.

Those teams you are assuming would be easy pickins for the Oil also played in much tougher divisions this season than your team did as well.

Then you factor in all the other games including those against real top teams, and its unlikely you feel as warm and fuzzy as this season has coddled you into feeling about yourselves and your real chances.

As the above poster pointed out, against the one realistic measuring stick team you're in the .300s. So what does beating the senators 9 times matter? Lol.

Hell, I didn't see much of a gap between the Flames and Oilers at all in the last set. An extra save by Smith here and there the difference, partly cause he got fortunate flopping around like a moron and partly our depleted confidence in putting pucks in open nets. But that in what is supposed to be our nightmare season.

Congrats on having the Sens and Jets numbers over a half season though. Definitely points towards you being among the elite when things open up, for sure.