[GT] US election - It's 2020, what could possibly go wrong?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

I also saw the stat that 20 million white males without a college degree didn't vote in the last 4 elections, and that is the largest demographic of non-voters.

Is that much of a concern? If they didn't bother to get out to vote last election when there was actually "her emails" and allegation from credible sources of her blackmailing an accuser of her husband, are they really going to get out and vote against a guy because he loved his son going through a hard time? I just don't see the type of people who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 coming out to vote for him in 2020, especially as he no longer has the anti-establishment vote being the establishment.

The young people who obviously couldn't vote last time, or are now more active, sure, there is that group, but I feel like those will be made up of more of the people getting involved due to BLM and the like.

[OldSam]

While I would love to believe the Deutsche Bank story, I really can't fathom Trump providing filings to anyone, let alone any Ethics Committee. We can hope.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Can't the banks just mix his loans in with low-quality subprime mortgage-backed securities?

"It's called a CTO. A Collateralized Trump Obligation and it's dog ####. We pump it to the yokels and they eat it up."

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Is that much of a concern?

When you come at it from a place of irrational fear, as I'm very good at, yes, it's all a concern.

All I know is that either way I'm drinking!

[Bill Bumface]

More Florida data based on voter registrations:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...Q#gid=63049609

[Suave]

Looks like some places in Florida do release early ballot votes. This looks bad for Biden at first, but the democrat portion of votes rose from 16% to 24% compared to 2016. Trump needs to hold onto all the votes he can, and looks like some are slipping away.

Sumter County leads the way in the tri-county area with more than 78 percent of voters already casting their ballots for the Nov. 3 General Election.

As of Sunday morning, 83,181 ballots had been cast from the potential pool of 105,612 active eligible voters, for a 78.76 percent turnout. Of those, 40,210 were received by mail and 42,996 came in through the early voting period. All told, 48,898 ballots were cast by Republicans, 19,698 by Democrats, 14,040 by those with No Party Affiliation and 545 by those listed as other.

Old People News

[sleepingmoose]

It doesn't show how people actually voted, only what their registered party affiliation is, and whether or not they voted. You can probably assume that those registered would vote with their party, but you can't be certain.

[Manhattanboy]

In 2016 there was a website that had the probability of Clinton v Trump winning in real time. It was fascinating watching the needle move from Clinton to Trump as the night went on.

I can’t recall was it Politico or the NY Times?

Would like to monitor things again tonight.

[opendoor]

Florida isn't releasing actual vote results, just the # of voters registered to each party who've voted. But yeah, Republicans are definitely turning up to vote in Florida. They now have a something like 200K advantage over Democrats in terms of # of votes cast by people registered to each party. Who knows if that will hold as the day goes on though.

That said, the amount of independent voters (about 3.5 million have voted already) completely dwarfs any difference in party voting numbers, so that's likely where the state will be decided.

[agulati]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

In 2016 there was a website that had the probability of Clinton v Trump winning in real time. It was fascinating watching the needle move from Clinton to Trump as the night went on.

I can’t recall was it Politico or the NY Times?

Would like to monitor things again tonight.

NY Times is doing a needle based on a few of the swing states these elections I believe. It was posted earlier today on the forum.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by agulati

NY Times is doing a needle based on a few of the swing states these elections I believe. It was posted earlier today on the forum.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/u...-forecast.html

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

In 2016 there was a website that had the probability of Clinton v Trump winning in real time. It was fascinating watching the needle move from Clinton to Trump as the night went on.

I can’t recall was it Politico or the NY Times?

Would like to monitor things again tonight.

The Upshot. They are not doing a national tonight, just Florida, Georgia and North Carolina.

https://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot

[peter12]

Originally Posted by agulati

NY Times is doing a needle based on a few of the swing states these elections I believe. It was posted earlier today on the forum.

Florida, Georgia or North Carolina are all important to watch tonight. If Biden wins even one of them, he's locked this thing up.

[agulati]

NM Posted already

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by Suave

Looks like some places in Florida do release early ballot votes. This looks bad for Biden at first, but the democrat portion of votes rose from 16% to 24% compared to 2016. Trump needs to hold onto all the votes he can, and looks like some are slipping away.

Sumter County leads the way in the tri-county area with more than 78 percent of voters already casting their ballots for the Nov. 3 General Election.

As of Sunday morning, 83,181 ballots had been cast from the potential pool of 105,612 active eligible voters, for a 78.76 percent turnout. Of those, 40,210 were received by mail and 42,996 came in through the early voting period. All told, 48,898 ballots were cast by Republicans, 19,698 by Democrats, 14,040 by those with No Party Affiliation and 545 by those listed as other.

Old People News

Dave Wasserman has put out some info on Twitter about Sumter County


Final pre-election tip: if you see Sumter Co., FL (The Villages) report ~84k votes shortly after 7pm and it's:

64% Trump or less: very good for Biden

65%-66%: possibly good for Biden

67%-68%: FL on track to be FL

69%-70%: possibly good for Trump

71%+ Trump: very good for Trump



Important addendum: if you see Sumter Co., FL (The Villages) eventually report ~95k votes and it's:

66% Trump or less: very good for Biden

67%-68%: possibly good for Biden

69%-70%: FL on track to be FL

71%-72%: possibly good for Trump

73%+ Trump: very good for Trump

[Kidder]

So it’s already after 5 pm ET, and so far there’s been no accounts of voter intimidation at the polls or like massive blockades?

This actually surprises me. Considering the efforts we saw in Texas just this weekend.

I’ll admit I anticipated at least some antics somewhere.

[calumniate]

I kind of agree. Also, did the media finally put trump on mute today? Lol

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Kidder

So it’s already after 5 pm ET, and so far there’s been no accounts of voter intimidation at the polls or like massive blockades?

This actually surprises me. Considering the efforts we saw in Texas just this weekend.

I’ll admit I anticipated at least some antics somewhere.

I just saw a tweet quoting an MSNBC reporter on the ground in Philly. They claimed "Obama-like levels of turn-out and enthusiasm" and no obvious voter suppression.

[sureLoss]

I really didn't expect much voter suppression on election day. The police are preparing for the worst tonight, the election watchdogs are on their highest alert right now, and media watching most of the polling stations. Would be kind of dumb to try anything today.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

I really didn't expect much voter suppression on election day. The police are preparing for the worst tonight, the election watchdogs are on their highest alert right now, and media watching most of the polling stations. Would be kind of dumb to try anything today.

Dumb doesn't stop a Trump supporter, it fuels them.