The Tesla Thread

[Azure]

Plus Tesla is kind of the first company going this direction, and obviously there will be production issues.

If it were so simple to buy more robots and build a bigger factory they would be doing that already.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by New Era

Would like to point out that the Tesla 3 has 276,000 reservations paid for in the first three days of availability. To give these numbers some relevance the top selling vehicle of 2014 was the Ford F-150 with 365,825 units sold.

Your numbers seem to be off by half for the US market:

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2016/01...-year-end.html

And not every reservation will turn into a sale.

[peter12]

Exactly. This is a reservation fee for a car that has not been built yet, and will be purchased at a yet-unknown date three years in the future.

[calumniate]

Well as peter12 once said, we've pretty much come to the end of the road in terms of science and innovation. So this particular ceo must come into conflict with his doctrine and fundamentalism. Who needs progress anyways? Jesus created humanitarianism. May the fossil fuel burn like the holy grail

Edit - Peter are you just nervous because this guy is simply so humanitarian, it's thrown you into a bout of confusion?

[Azure]

Well people have been doubting Tesla & SpaceX since the start.

If profits were the only thing Musk were concerned about, he would be like every other investor in the world. No money to be made? Screw it. Thankfully he is at least TRYING to disrupt a 100 year old industry.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by NuclearFart

I wouldn't be surprised if that's not factor on some level, but what are you defining as an expensive car?

People that buy performance car$ are willing to pay the premiums because they like to drive, although that might not the demographic you are referring to, nor will it be the majority.

I actually mean to write "more expensive cars". As in, people buy more expensive cars than they would otherwise because they're nicer to drive.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by calumniate

Well as peter12 once said, we've pretty much come to the end of the road in terms of science and innovation. So this particular ceo must come into conflict with his doctrine and fundamentalism. Who needs progress anyways? Jesus created humanitarianism. May the fossil fuel burn like the holy grail

Edit - Peter are you just nervous because this guy is simply so humanitarian, it's thrown you into a bout of confusion?

I actually don't think he is humanitarian at all. Don't be so ignorant. The links I have provided cast significant doubt on that.

[calumniate]

Ok I guess what you've written here has no bearing on the conversation. I'll go read the links and do some real book learning!

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by accord1999

Your numbers seem to be off by half for the US market:

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2016/01...-year-end.html

And not every reservation will turn into a sale.

Interesting. That was the same site I got the numbers from, except for 2014 sales. Thanks for the update.

You're right, not every reservation turns into a sale. Not every buyer is going to plop down $1,000 for a car they have not had a chance to drive. I'm very interested in the vehicle, but I won't put any money down on a vehicle I have not had a chance to get behind the wheel. I know a lot of other people holding the same position, so there are plenty of other potential customers out there that haven't put down a deposit.

Having said that, can you name another vehicle that has had 276,000 potential customers put down a $1,000 deposit on in the first 72 hours of it being on the market?

Just also have to add that Toyota lost money on every Prius built for years as well. Innovation comes with a cost.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by New Era

Having said that, can you name another vehicle that has had 276,000 potential customers put down a $1,000 deposit on in the first 72 hours of it being on the market?

It's an impressive number for sure; but other than a few niche vehicles the general North American auto industry doesn't do reservations. But if the likes of Ford, GM and Fiat-Chrysler did for some reason, you'll see hundreds of thousands of reservations each for F150s, Silverados/Sierras and Rams as well.

[corporatejay]

I have no interest in owning one of these yet, maybe in 5 years when they've ironed out the kinks.

In the meantime, I'm pretty excited. There hasn't been innovation like this in vehicles in decades. I mean before Tesla electric cars were gutless pieces of a crap. This car performs well and looks awesome.

I truly believe Tesla/Musk's long term goal is mass production of reliable batteries to be used for storage of renewable energy (which right now can only be used while the wind is blowing or the sun is shining).

The affordability of these vehicles is going to change once people start having to pay for charging stations, and talk about inconvenient. Nothing like stopping for an hour on your road trip to charge the car.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

The affordability of these vehicles is going to change once people start having to pay for charging stations...

When is that going to happen? Every Tesla you buy now has lifetime free charging.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by zamler

When is that going to happen? Every Tesla you buy now has lifetime free charging.

Probably when they get congested.

[NuclearFart]

Originally Posted by accord1999

Probably when they get congested.

The long term vision of Tesla isn't these supercharger stations, it's battery swapping stations: you drive in, they replace the depleted car battery with a freshly charged one and off you go. If the cars are built with an efficient swap mechanism it would be faster than filling up your car with a full tank of gas.

Peter12 - I find your views strangely myopic as I had you pegged as more cerebral than that. How often is true innovation immediately profitable, let alone favorable to economies of scale right out of the gate? Tesla's end game is decades away when they have attained mainstream consumer acceptance with the infrastructure to match; at that point you will see your scaling. Creating accessibility for the average Joe is the obvious first step, which is the whole point of the model 3.

[accord1999]

Battery swapping is probably dead:

http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars...-battery-swap/

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by peter12

Exactly. This is a reservation fee for a car that has not been built yet, and will be purchased at a yet-unknown date three years in the future.

Yes, and 276k people paid that fee in one day. Doesn't matter if the car isn't available for three years - Visa will want its money next month same as ever.

The revolution has begun.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by accord1999

Probably when they get congested.

You say that like they're going to stop building supercharger stations.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

You say that like they're going to stop building supercharger stations.

But it's going to take a lot of chargers; the throughput of Superchargers simply can't match liquid of fuels. A 70 kWh Model S battery currently takes 45 minutes to add 250 km of range from near empty.

http://insideevs.com/supercharging-t...eo-comparison/

Tesla has already been sending out letters to owners who abuse the Superchargers.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by peter12

Well, maybe. But if his ideas are so great, why can't he sell them to the market on their own merit. If things can't scale, and make money, well, then they aren't really all that much good.

As for being a decent futurist, Pirrong makes a compelling case that Musk has exercised his market power before to artificially increase the price of his stock to raise capital.

http://streetwiseprofessor.com/?p=7294

The internet, fission and space exploration are all the result of government funding. If we'd had to rely on Goldman Sachs to get to the moon, we would still be waiting.

New technology is inherently not cost effective, and the only ones who can afford to underwrite it are governments.

As to why they can't be sold straight up on their own merit, well originally, the infrastructure wasn't in place. You couldn't start with a car like the Model 3 without the vast supercharger network they've been constructing for the past ten years. You also couldn't just show up with a Model 3 and expect the world to fall over itself because of the very valid concerns you and others have raised.

Instead, they started with a sexy little roadster designed to realign the way we think of electric vehicles. Forget the goofy little Yaris-sized exercises in pandering - this thing is fun, fast, and can go 200 miles.

Then you come out with the Model S which allows the public to see from a distance how the technology works in the real world. And when every major automotive publication calls it one of the greatest cars ever built by man, the public begins to take notice. As was always the plan, hype builds.

Tesla's autonomous driving tech is the industry standard. They update software over the air. Their service intervals are insanely long, and they don't have many maintenance issues associated with conventional cars. The Model X P90D, for all its problems with the falcon doors and production, is 2/10ths quicker 0-60 than a Ferrari Enzo. You remember the Ferrari Enzo, right?



A 5440 lb electric SUV is quicker than this. In Ludicrous mode, the Model S P90D beats the Enzo to 60 mph by a full 1.2 seconds!

Say what you want about the business side of things, but these people know how to build some INCREDIBLE things. And you could bet against people that can do this, like you could've bet against Steve Jobs and Apple.

But you shouldn't.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by accord1999

But it's going to take a lot of chargers; the throughput of Superchargers simply can't match liquid of fuels. A 70 kWh Model S battery currently takes 45 minutes to add 250 km of range from near empty.

http://insideevs.com/supercharging-t...eo-comparison/

Tesla has already been sending out letters to owners who abuse the Superchargers.

Again. They'll build more of them. Calgary doesn't even have ONE yet. These things take time. And I would argue that most people aren't going to abuse superchargers either - the same way people don't abuse gas stations. It doesn't matter that I can fuel up anywhere, I don't drive 1400 KM a day.

The Model 3 purports to have a range of anywhere between 300-350KM. If that doesn't fit your lifestyle, this isn't the car for you. But the only way we're ever going to get to a world where an electric car has the same range as my TDI Jetta (and charges in 15 minutes) is with cars like the Model 3 paving the way.