Russia invades Ukraine

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Pointman

I was referring to his quote below and so far it's not happening. While there seems to be a consensus among the west that Russia will feel effects of sanctions at some point, that point does not seem to be by late August or September. It also could be that western experts are just telling western people that sanctions hurt Russia badly because this is what the west wants to hear.


Quote:
The economic situation is deteriorating and we will begin feeling that seriously by late August or September. It’s a gradual process. One company closes, people have to look for new jobs, then another closes, and so on. Certain goods are disappearing, but not everything

Russia is very obviously already feeling the effects of sanctions, so I'm not sure what exactly are you arguing. He's saying nothing about a collapse there, just fairly basic points about how economical effects take effect slowly and spread gradually.

What counts as "feeling seriously" is obviously open to interpretation.

[PeteMoss]

I'd say the immediate impact of the sanctions was over-stated by people so there was a feeling that Russia was going to fall into an immediate shambles when the reality is more of a slow decline - death by paper cuts - that will occur over a long time frame.

[Firebot]

I mean it's really hard to claim that sanctions were hard hitting...when all of Europe was still importing oil & gas from Russia.

Heck Europe still imported late July until Russia cut the supply themselves as a political tool.

There's also a significant amount of US companies still operating in Russia. While sanctions were harsh money still flowed into Russia.

That said, an economic collapse doesn't just happen next day after sanctions hit. Considering Russia is also running their economy in a closed system now it's much easier to prop up the economy in its own bubble (see the Ruble).

The stock market crash of 1929 was seen as the shock catalyst for the great depression, but even the great depression took 4 years to show its full force in actual economic numbers such as unemployment. We are still only 6 months in here.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/1...at-depression/



Take the words of the Russian Central Bank with a grain of salt, their entire strategy is to soften the blow of Putin's war and disastrous effects and present a positive picture, and only delaying the inevitable.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Firebot

I mean it's really hard to claim that sanctions were hard hitting...when all of Europe was still importing oil & gas from Russia.

That, and the fact China, India, and the rest of Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East are still carrying on business as usual with Russia.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Firebot

I mean it's really hard to claim that sanctions were hard hitting...when all of Europe was still importing oil & gas from Russia.

Heck Europe still imported late July until Russia cut the supply themselves as a political tool.

There's also a significant amount of US companies still operating in Russia. While sanctions were harsh money still flowed into Russia.

That said, an economic collapse doesn't just happen next day after sanctions hit. Considering Russia is also running their economy in a closed system now it's much easier to prop up the economy in its own bubble (see the Ruble).

The stock market crash of 1929 was seen as the shock catalyst for the great depression, but even the great depression took 4 years to show its full force in actual economic numbers such as unemployment. We are still only 6 months in here.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/1...at-depression/



Take the words of the Russian Central Bank with a grain of salt, their entire strategy is to soften the blow of Putin's war and disastrous effects and present a positive picture, and only delaying the inevitable.

Oil and gas is such a massive part of Russia's economy it's hard to really hit at them with sanctions. Especially when the price of oil/gas goes up so dramatically, as it has this past year.

As long as China is buying up all the extra Russian oil (even at a discount, which is rumoured at $10-12/barrel) and oil prices remain elevated it's going to be hard to really hit Russia economically.

Russia's economy was already in pretty bad shape before all this, and the rubble is actually higher now than it has been in several years. For the average Russian, they may be seeing fewer luxury goods in the stores, but could they even afford those a year ago?

[FlamesAddiction]

I'm curious as to what happens if China's economy stagnates like some are predicting. They aren't going to need Russia for as much after that, and they will probably set their own prices.

[Firebot]

Another day, another smoking accident in Crimea. Two reported incidents, 200km behind the frontlines. First was on a railway in Dzhankoy

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559418362790260736

This was moments after this video showing a major stockpile of ammunition and Grad MLRS

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559480148264714241

Also reports of a major explosion at an airfield near Simferopol. While there are no videos yet, this is what the airfield looked like most recently.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559528856654168068

Also stumbled upon this one, Russian occupiers don't like these smoking accidents it seems.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559528302691360768

[Firebot]

So many smoking incidents

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559494012129640448

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559550033405644802

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559491609108119552

[burn_this_city]

A young guy I follow in Ukraine lost a finger today, now making jokes about being Frodo.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559491609108119552

This is my favorite update. Wagner is such a #### stain on humanity and deserves to be eliminated.

Ukraine taking out the trash that infests this world.

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559584173731586050

[Fuzz]

I wonder how long before Putin gets tired of having hi #### blown up by American weapons, and starts to ratchet up the rhetoric? He's not gong to take this beating for too long.

[burn_this_city]

I suspect there will be some kind of escalation on August 24th targeting Ukrainian Independence celebrations. Apparently there are a lot of missiles being massed in Belarus, likely for strikes on Kyiv. There is also rumor of 10-15k Belarussian soldiers willing to invade from the North.

[FLAMESRULE]

I think you might see Poland ask NATO to hold their beer, say "I've got this" to avoid Article 5, and then go pound the piss out of Belarus. I get the feeling they've had enough and are making back room threats to hold Belarus off and keep Russia away from the Baltics.

[Mull]

Rob isn’t usually sarcastic.. so this makes me laugh as I think he is simply making a statement of fact from his view

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559625301273059333

Context:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559580011048337408

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559581474894094336

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559589721214488582

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559597594304827393

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

I suspect there will be some kind of escalation on August 24th targeting Ukrainian Independence celebrations. Apparently there are a lot of missiles being massed in Belarus, likely for strikes on Kyiv. There is also rumor of 10-15k Belarussian soldiers willing to invade from the North.

Well, all the predictions about Russia trying to do something for the May 9 victory day didn't age well, but for those who believe in the pacts of big dates, Putin turns 70 on Oct 7th.

[Mull]

Reported Record daily traffic across the crimea bridge back to Russia yesterday- before the ammo dump exploded and now…

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559642281237516290

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Well, all the predictions about Russia trying to do something for the May 9 victory day didn't age well, but for those who believe in the pacts of big dates, Putin turns 70 on Oct 7th.

With any luck, he won't.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Well, all the predictions about Russia trying to do something for the May 9 victory day didn't age well, but for those who believe in the pacts of big dates, Putin turns 70 on Oct 7th.

Let's hope that ####### gets a third eye for his birthday