[News] Brodie has been driving to Toronto to skate with Giordano

[---Hatrick---]

I think something to look into is who his partners were and for what time span when he was away from Gio

[Locke]

Originally Posted by joejoe3

Bill Peters: But why...?
*slots Hanifin in with Gio*

CP explodes

Oh it'll happen. At some point, it'll happen.

But Brodano was one of the NHL's best defence pairings, it was Ol' Gul's burning desire to be the smartest man the room that broke that up.

[---Hatrick---]

I don’t mean to rag on Hamilton as I do think he is a great player. One of the most offensively gifted D men out there. He will have a great career and make a boat load of money but is it wrong to assume that while he was not paired with Gio, he was being deployed in more favourable situations and maybe being sheltered a bit? While Gio May have been being relied on for more D zone starts and as more of a shut down guy?

[Erick Estrada]

Not to be a Debbie downer but I'm a little skeptical this pair will be as good as we remember them. Gio while still very good is no longer in his prime as he was when paired with Brodie last and Brodie has been borderline terrible for two seasons now. I think he's going to be instantly better on the right side with Gio but I'm expecting a drop off over the Hamilton/Gio pairing. The hope is that the 2nd and 3rd pairings will be better to overcome that.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Nelson

The reason scoring chances, shots, and shot attempts are important to me is that they indicate the Flames were in the other team’s end. If your team is in the other team’s defensive zone more than they are in your defensive zone.


Why are you so confident in basing your opinion on how you remember feeling in the 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 seasons?

Do they though? Let's look at the numbers you posted on Hamilton and Giordano when apart...

CF%: 51.33% vs 50.11% (the largest differential of the numbers you posted)

Is the difference significant?

Over the course of 3 years, Hamilton had 1677 even-strength SATfor and 1624 SATagainst, or +53. Giordano had 1712 and 1706, or +6.

That works out to a differential of 47 shots, or 1 shot every 5.2 games. To refer back to the claim you made about being in the other team's zone, does 1 shot every 5 games really tell us that?

So what do these numbers tell us? The answer is nothing really, because we haven't factored in situational factors like who were they playing with? or against? what about zone starts? or game score?

Does Hamilton get extra ice-time when behind? Does Giordano get more defensive situations? I don't have the stats, but I would guess that both of those things are true, at least to some degree.

If we try and separate all those issues, we end up with very small sample sizes. If we don't, we end up with noise.

The only thing for certain is that those numbers don't really tell us anything.

I absolutely agree with you that calling Hamilton garbage is ridiculous. But like Bingo was saying, watching him play defensively was not without its frustrations. To me, these stats don't change that at all, because the differences in the percentages are too small to tell us much, once we realize how much noise is inherent in them.

[---Hatrick---]

A drop off is inevitable. I still haven’t really seen it yet though, aside from his point total dropping, but it’s interesting that in his interview he stated that Brodie creates a lot of chances generates offence. We will see if his point totals go up again this season if Brodano works out and we don’t see the inevitable drop off for Gio.
I must say, I’m also cautiously optimistic about them returning to form but what has me excited is that they both sound excited to get the chance to be reunited

[AC]

Gio's quote about being able to jump into the play now when paired with Brodie speaks to his defensive mindset while covering for Dougie.

It worked well for that pair, but I think Gio had to step back offensively because he wasn't able to trust Dougie defensively as much as he should have been able to for a top pairing.

[Enoch Root]

Giordano was every bit as good last year as he has been in the past.

[Locke]

Further to which, top defensemen generally have a lot more staying power into their deep 30s than most other positions.

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Do they though? Let's look at the numbers you posted on Hamilton and Giordano when apart...

CF%: 51.33% vs 50.11% (the largest differential of the numbers you posted)

Is the difference significant?

Over the course of 3 years, Hamilton had 1677 even-strength SATfor and 1624 SATagainst, or +53. Giordano had 1712 and 1706, or +6.

That works out to a differential of 47 shots, or 1 shot every 5.2 games. To refer back to the claim you made about being in the other team's zone, does 1 shot every 5 games really tell us that?

So what do these numbers tell us? The answer is nothing really, because we haven't factored in situational factors like who were they playing with? or against? what about zone starts? or game score?

Does Hamilton get extra ice-time when behind? Does Giordano get more defensive situations? I don't have the stats, but I would guess that both of those things are true, at least to some degree.

If we try and separate all those issues, we end up with very small sample sizes. If we don't, we end up with noise.

The only thing for certain is that those numbers don't really tell us anything.

I absolutely agree with you that calling Hamilton garbage is ridiculous. But like Bingo was saying, watching him play defensively was not without its frustrations. To me, these stats don't change that at all, because the differences in the percentages are too small to tell us much, once we realize how much noise is inherent in them.

Yeah. There are all kinds of additional factors one needs to consider. I am not trying to say Hamilton is better than Giordano (I agree the difference between the numbers is extremely small) or that Hamilton does not have significant weaknesses in the defensive zone. Hamilton absolutely does have those weaknesses. As I said in my response to Bingo's comment, the A3Z charts confirm what our eyes tell us. But I was mostly just responding to the claim that Hamilton is "useless" without Giordano. The fact is that, regardless of the external factors that might explain the results, Hamilton did not fair poorly without Giordano over a three season sample size. He did just fine.

I don't think you can say that those numbers don't tell us anything just because there are more factors than just Hamilton's abilities contributing to them. I think they tell us the percentage of shot attempts, etc. that the Flames had when Hamilton was on the ice and Giordano was not. This is significant information.

[TheIronMaiden]

It is tough to say what the trajectory of Gio's career will be. He is 34, and is under contract for 4 more years. A reduction in ability is undeniably going to happen at some point. All the same, if the other 6 D men in the roster can pick up his responsibilities. Gio will age gracefully down the lineup until his time is done. Will this be Gio's last year on the top pair? only time will tell.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Nelson

Bingo, you are a pretty knowledgeable guy. Can you explain to me why Hamilton is 66th percentile in possession entries allowed per 60 and 29th percentile in percentage of possession entries allowed? Why is there a disconnect?

I am not Bingo, but the disconnect comes from Hamilton not having to defend as many entries per minute. It can happen because of the team is spending that time in the offensive or neutral zone (for example), or starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone. So while Hamilton is not great at denying possession entries, the team’s play with him on the ice prevents as many possession entry attempts.

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

I am not Bingo, but the disconnect comes from Hamilton not having to defend as many entries per minute. It can happen because of the team is spending that time in the offensive or neutral zone (for example), or starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone. So while Hamilton is not great at denying possession entries, the team’s play with him on the ice prevents as many possession entry attempts.

You are awesome. Thank you.

[Split98]

Brodie returning to form has been a big question mark for me. This story has really pumped up my optimism that Brodano will return to form, as I believe a lot of what was going on with Brodie lived upstairs. Having his partner back obviously has him pretty excited, and I think the physical toolset is largely still there.

As for Giordano, he's been a better player every single year so far - the worst case scenario is this is the year he starts stepping back. At 34 you have to think that day is coming, but I would have a hard time deciding where to lay my chips there.

Nevermind Hanafin and the further development of the group pushing their way in - a Brodie trade seemed like addition by subtraction some nights. Getting back the pairing that had a few on the networks speculating an Olympic nod... that could be one of the biggest moves Treliving made this off-season.

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Not to be a Debbie downer but I'm a little skeptical this pair will be as good as we remember them. Gio while still very good is no longer in his prime as he was when paired with Brodie last and Brodie has been borderline terrible for two seasons now. I think he's going to be instantly better on the right side with Gio but I'm expecting a drop off over the Hamilton/Gio pairing. The hope is that the 2nd and 3rd pairings will be better to overcome that.

I don't think they'll ever reclaim their 2014-15 level of dominance, because that is one tough bar. You're talking about arguably the best pairing in the league at the time. They were regularly being decimated in terms of zone starts and given the toughest matchups, and they were not only getting it out of trouble, for a while they were leading the team in scoring (and were #1 and #2 for league defencemen scoring during that time).

Here's some feel-good articles from a while back documenting how great they were as a pairing.

CBS Sports: Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie and the players that are Carrying their Teams

Playing more than 24 minutes a night, Giordano and Brodie have spent almost all of their 5-on-5 ice-time on the ice together and play some of the toughest minutes in the NHL, especially when it comes to where they have been deployed on the ice, starting the overwhelming majority of their shifts in the defensive zone. Even with those tough minutes and the brutal usage, Giordano and Brodie are still able to play their way out of trouble on most shifts and are the driving forces behind their team offensively. Seriously, almost everything that happens for the Flames runs through Giordano and Brodie.

Calgary Herald: Flames defensive duo Giordano and Brodie among league's elite

“Just the way they possess the puck, the way they break up plays, lead the rush,” says Engelland, a former member of the Pittsburgh Penguins. “Definitely one of the top pairings I’ve played with. Their mobility, great. Their offensive instincts, great. Then you throw them in the defensive zone and they’re great there, too.

“There’s not a weak spot from what I’ve seen.”

[...]

Best pair in the NHL?

“They’re certainly very close,” replies coach Bob Hartley. “Gio and Brodes, gosh, the way that they skate, the way that they perform. They’re a big reason why we’re (high) in the standings. They’re the backbone of our hockey club.”

THW: Brodie and Giordano make a run at the Norris

Thrown together in training camp last season as a pairing, Brodie and Giordano became an anchor for the club – if all else failed, coach Bob Hartley could throw them onto the ice and things would be just fine. The pairing boast speed, offensive creativity and strong 200-foot awareness. Their value to the team became really evident last season during Giordano’s 18-game absence due to an injury – Brodie was paired with Chris Butler, the Flames constantly got out-shot and out-scored, and they went 5-11-2 and fell towards the bottom of the NHL’s standings.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Nelson

Yeah. There are all kinds of additional factors one needs to consider. I am not trying to say Hamilton is better than Giordano (I agree the difference between the numbers is extremely small) or that Hamilton does not have significant weaknesses in the defensive zone. Hamilton absolutely does have those weaknesses. As I said in my response to Bingo's comment, the A3Z charts confirm what our eyes tell us. But I was mostly just responding to the claim that Hamilton is "useless" without Giordano. The fact is that, regardless of the external factors that might explain the results, Hamilton did not fair poorly without Giordano over a three season sample size. He did just fine.

I don't think you can say that those numbers don't tell us anything just because there are more factors than just Hamilton's abilities contributing to them. I think they tell us the percentage of shot attempts, etc. that the Flames had when Hamilton was on the ice and Giordano was not. This is significant information.

Until we know the situations in which they were out separately, and the players they were out with, it really doesn't tell us anything.

47 shots in 246 games.

Hell, half of that could have come from a couple situations where the Flames were ahead (or behind) and there were very lopsided shots for the remainder of the game that one of them participated more in, due to their roles.

47 shots in 3 years. With no qualitative information included.

It tells us nothing.

Let's look at one particular situation in order to put it into perspective... If Girodano is used in the final minutes while ahead, but Hamilton is not, what would that do to the numbers?

In those 3 years, the Flames won 117 games. Let's guess that they held a lead (but the game was still close) in about half of them. Or about 50 games, for easy math.

If Giordano gets lots of last-minute ice-time in that situation, and Hamilton doesn't, that could easily result in 2 shots against per game on average.

And 100 shots against would completely flip the CF% stat from +47 in Hamilton's favour to +53 in Giordano's favour. Just with one, small situation-type.

[Bingo]

For the Brodie / Giordano pairing to work we would have to assume that Brodie moving the right side will fix a lot.

The Giordano/Hamilton pairing is interesting in that if you look at the shot suppression maps for both players you'll see the leak is on the right side (that's Hamilton).

Here is Giordano. Notice the big blue spot in front of his side of the net. Nobody comes through there. The biggest access is off the right half wall.


Here is Hamilton's ...
Pretty much the same as you'd expect.


So that pairing is getting carried defensively by Giordano.

Now the 2nd pairing.

Brodie's chart.
Not a good look for Brodie ... high slot slightly to his side and the area coming into his side from the half wall.


Really ... this could almost make the case that Giordano will have to carry someone again, and Hamonic could be in line for a bounce back if Hanifin does a better job of defending his side.

As I said to open ... Brodie is either bad on the left side or just bad of late.

[Split98]

I see red sunny-side up eggs and a Salvador Dali dartboard in Brodie's chart. Does anyone see anything else?

[SuperMatt18]

Edit: Nevermind you guys can't see the other charts.

Overall summary was in 15/16 Brodie was just as good with our without Gio playing on the RH side, and we didn't bleed shots on the RH side.

Hamilton was very bad away from Giordano - but had a bad 1st year overall and was playing with poor partners.

So overall will be a very interesting season to see an older Hamilton away from Gio.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Split98

I see red sunny-side up eggs and a Salvador Dali dartboard in Brodie's chart. Does anyone see anything else?

I think thats just the Ebola virus under a microscope...