Mock draft based on current standings

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

What were Bobby Mac's numbers with Jones as the season progressed? I can't remember if he had that much of a majority vote over MacKinnon. Ended up dropping down to 4th.

The draft is sometimes funny that way. Even with the 'feel good' story and history of Jones in Colorado (and being ridiculously short of quality D-men on the team and int he pipeline), they opted for MacKinnon, and it doesn't seem like the wrong choice at all.

Florida, even though they have a relatively deep center prospect pool, decided to go for Barkov next rather than Jones.

Tampa was more surprising to me, even though the media portrayed Drouin as the "St. Louis replacement". I thought for sure they were going to be picking Jones, as they were (and are) relatively light on D.

Nashville (who is a fairly deep team on D, even after losing Suter) selects Jones (and rightfully so).

I personally would never have predicted that the draft would turn out that way at all, though I can't argue that any of them were 'bad'. I believe that Reinhart will still get picked ahead of Ekblad this draft, unless Edmonton wins the lottery. They have to be perhaps the only team in the lottery stage that has to seriously look at organizational needs (#1 Defencemen, #2 Center with size, top-line winger with size, goalie prospects - in that order I think). Reinhart and Bennet would both be good, but they probably 'need' a guy like Draisatl more.

It almost feels that teams are now either a bit gun-shy about selecting a defencemen so early, or they feel a forward is indeed more 'value'. I think a defencemen has to be substantially better than the next forward in order to be drafted #1, and I don't think Ekblad is that far ahead of Reinhart, if at all (except once again, to Edmonton, whom I am sure would love and need both. Ekblad just fills a more pressing organizational need).

Well the difference between this year's draft and the previous one is this year's draft is weaker. I think teams will be picking for their needs this time. Edmonton will take Ekblad if he is still available, I think Buffalo will take Reinhart.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Well the difference between this year's draft and the previous one is this year's draft is weaker. I think teams will be picking for their needs this time. Edmonton will take Ekblad if he is still available, I think Buffalo will take Reinhart.

While I agree that Buffalo will take Reinhart and Edmonton takes Ekblad, I don't think that is because of having a weaker draft. If anything, weak drafts force teams to really select BPA, as the 'bust' ratio is higher. A team better do the best job it can in projections.

A very strong draft with a lot of high-end talent should allow a team to select players based on organizational need with more ease - but again, I think few do.

I think the only difference in a strong or a weak draft is how much more likely teams are to trade a 1st round pick away, or how much more expensive it is to trade up. I think teams normally draft in accordance to BPA first, and then organizational need second if two prospects are equal, regardless of the strength of any draft.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

While I agree that Buffalo will take Reinhart and Edmonton takes Ekblad, I don't think that is because of having a weaker draft. If anything, weak drafts force teams to really select BPA, as the 'bust' ratio is higher. A team better do the best job it can in projections.

A very strong draft with a lot of high-end talent should allow a team to select players based on organizational need with more ease - but again, I think few do.

I think the only difference in a strong or a weak draft is how much more likely teams are to trade a 1st round pick away, or how much more expensive it is to trade up. I think teams normally draft in accordance to BPA first, and then organizational need second if two prospects are equal, regardless of the strength of any draft.

I agree that you should usually go with the BPA, and like I have said before, I really hope that we can trade Buffalo for their first since this is a weak draft.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Last year the top 4 was very even and therefore teams just took the guys they liked best. Interesting to note that many thought the Avs would take Jones due to need and yet they did not. David Poile of the Preds said they had Jones rated #1. Clearly several teams had MacKinnon #1. The teams at the top did not draft by need but took who they thought was the best player available.

This year looks similar with the top 3 being pretty close. However by seasons end Ekblad may have cemented himself as the favourite to go #1. I think too many here are overemphasizing drafting for position. I think the teams in the top couple will go by their list unless they see the top 2-3 as completely equal. That very rarely happens as scouts usually end up preferring one player to another. If anything Buffalo's recent draft history shows that their scouts love big mobile defencemen.

Really the top 3 could go in any order. And BUF only has a 25% chance if retaining the pick. Draft lottery is going to be quite interesting.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Last year the top 4 was very even and therefore teams just took the guys they liked best. Interesting to note that many thought the Avs would take Jones due to need and yet they did not. David Poile of the Preds said they had Jones rated #1. Clearly several teams had MacKinnon #1. The teams at the top did not draft by need but took who they thought was the best player available.

I think it's likely they would have if they hadn't of had an almost complete reorg of their hockey ops leading up to the draft.