[CP Story] RFArmageddon

[Bingo]

Here's the story with a deeper explanation

RFArmageddon

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Here's the story with a deeper explanation

RFAmageddon

nm.

good read. will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[The Cobra]

I disagree that it's the players that can't get cute and, presumably, need to cave.

The teams have the exact same deadline.

[Toonage]

So it benefits the team (from a cap perspective) to let the player sit all year if they aren't signed by the drop dead date (so to speak).

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I disagree that it's the players that can't get cute and, presumably, need to cave.

The teams have the exact same deadline.

I don't think that was my summary at all.

I was just saying the days of leverage from withholding services now has a huge deadline impact on the player too.

[Knut]

I see it as at a certain point there is no incentive to sign the player this season. So there is a high likely-hood of a full season hold out or the player caving.

I actually think the more likely holdouts are Boeser and Werenski. Their teams are retooling right now and missing them for a season hurts them less.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Toonage

So it benefits the team (from a cap perspective) to let the player sit all year if they aren't signed by the drop dead date (so to speak).

Neither side want to miss the season.

But the player can now apply his wanted AAV to the team's existing cap space and see there is a limit to how long he can push things.

Push past that and you create a huge risk of missing the season or collapsing on the term/dollars to fit.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Hes

I see it as at a certain point there is no incentive to sign the player this season. So there is a high likely-hood of a full season hold out or the player caving...

I think this is probably right. Unless teams manage to re-up their players within that two-week window, then I am expecting negotiations to simply end.

It's a tonne of pressure on both sides.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Hes

I see it as at a certain point there is no incentive to sign the player this season. So there is a high likely-hood of a full season hold out or the player caving.

I actually think the more likely holdouts are Boeser and Werenski. Their teams are retooling right now and missing them for a season hurts them less.

The problem with that theory is twofold.

1. For Boeser, the Canucks have just re-tooled, and they need to make the playoffs in one of the next two seasons to ensure that they give up a late first rounder for Miller instead of a potential top 10 (or top 3, if the Lightning get really lucky) pick. Boeser is also not eligible for an offer sheet, which might make him more inclined to cave, since he has no other alternative but to ultimately sign with the Canucks. Even if it's a Timo Meier style deal, I suspect they'll get him signed for training camp.

2. Werenski is basically just waiting for one of Provorov or McAvoy to sign, so that he can say, "Okay, give me $1M more than that guy". Things should move more quickly once that happens. There's a different sort of logjam among those three RFA D-men, because they're all waiting for each other. So I suspect that the only reason you'd see Werenski hold out long-term is if the other two guys do as well, which is highly unlikely - McAvoy is in the same situation as Boeser; he either plays for Boston or he plays for no one. He'll sign eventually and then the dominoes will fall.

The main thing to keep in mind for player hold outs is that even if the team does cave and gives them a bit more money on the deal, is it going to make up for the money you would've made in the games you missed? Say your team offers you 6x6 and you want 7x6, and no one budges. You hold out half the season and end up getting 6.5x6. You're now in exactly the situation you would have been had you just accepted the team's offer in the first place.

[Knut]

^ probably right.

I predict all these guys probably sign a few days into training camp. All within a day or two of each other.

[Bingo]

Another interesting wrinkle ...

If the Flames move Frolik for a pick prior to the season, Calgary goes from a 0 on that list to 60 days.

Are the Flames waiting on this?

[Northendzone]

it would be interesting to know if the players consider what happened to nylander (missing camp and having a mostly unproductive season) as the season draws closer.

i mean does the player maybe accept $250k less than his "bottom line" to get a deal done before camp starts to try and put themselves in the best position to have a successful season - or do you stick your guns regardless of how far it goes.

although part of me thinks that one the season starts, the team regains a bit of an advantage as it starts to really cost the player money

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

it would be interesting to know if the players consider what happened to nylander (missing camp and having a mostly unproductive season) as the season draws closer.

The teams need to consider the exact same thing.

It's the Leafs that really suffered.

Nylander got his money and the Leafs got a less productive player.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I don't think that was my summary at all.

I was just saying the days of leverage from withholding services now has a huge deadline impact on the player too.

Well, your suggestion that a "player can't get cute" likely should have read then that "neither the player nor the team can get cute" because of the deadline approaching.

If, as you suggested, the player had more of a hammer in withholding services, the deadline does not change that hammer. It's just that after that deadline, it might not get done.

[Samonadreau]

Why is Tkachuk getting as much as Aho? (Who got offersheeted i might add)

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Neither side want to miss the season.

But the player can now apply his wanted AAV to the team's existing cap space and see there is a limit to how long he can push things.

Push past that and you create a huge risk of missing the season or collapsing on the term/dollars to fit.

What about signing a 1 year deal then signing an extension in January as an option to slide out of this squeeze?

Something like SJ looks to possibly do with Labanc.

[Strange Brew]

Using the capfriendly numbers for the Flames, you would only have 22 players once Tkachuk and Mangiapane are signed, of which only 6 are defensemen. Not to beat a dead horse, but I just don’t see a strategy of having less than 3 extra players being practical. Too many day to day injuries, much less taking flexibility away from your coach.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Using the capfriendly numbers for the Flames, you would only have 22 players once Tkachuk and Mangiapane are signed, of which only 6 are defensemen. Not to beat a dead horse, but I just don’t see a strategy of having less than 3 extra players being practical. Too many day to day injuries, much less taking flexibility away from your coach.

That's back to the 21 man roster discussion. Not really what is being discussed here.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Well, your suggestion that a "player can't get cute" likely should have read then that "neither the player nor the team can get cute" because of the deadline approaching.

If, as you suggested, the player had more of a hammer in withholding services, the deadline does not change that hammer. It's just that after that deadline, it might not get done.

The players always had December 1st as their cut line where they over stepped.

Teams have always had the opener.

The table above suggests the actual cut line has moved markedly towards the team's deadline in actual fact.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That's back to the 21 man roster discussion. Not really what is being discussed here.

Your calculation of Flames cap room assumes a 22 man roster. My point is they have less room than that, specifically by the amount equal to a #7 defenseman.

I didn't look at the other teams so I don't know if their cap room would be any less vs. just taking the number from CapFriendly.