The Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Husky

MT is not worth 8mm today - maybe 3-4 years from now. But i guess you are paying for the future.

Well the going rate is 1M for every 10 points so he is in that wheel house

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Husky

MT is not worth 8mm today - maybe 3-4 years from now. But i guess you are paying for the future.

He got 77 points. That's worth at least $8M in todays market. They are paying for anticipated production similar to last year, not increased production.

FWIW, per 82 games, Taveras comes out at 77 points.

Today, players are being paid more sooner than previously based on their current worth. Teams are now reluctant to pay players for what they've done in the past.

[bax]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Agree - the RFA market is a bit wonky but high 7'S to low 8's is what he will get on a 6 year deal.

Here are all the forwards signed for between $7.5M and $8.5M since July 1 2017.

Aho: $8.5M
Duchene: $8M
Wheeler: $8.25M
Couture: $8.0M
Draisaitl: $8.5M
Johansen: $8.0M
Kuznetsov: $7.8M

When Kuznetsov signed that contract the cap was only 75 million- so his deal was 10.4% of the cap. Today that deal would be 8.5 million. The 3 seasons previous Kuznetsoc had point totals of 37, 77, and 59.

Tkachuk's last three seasons are 48, 49, 77. Obviously not perfect comparables because they are very different players and Kuznetsov had a 2 year bridge deal so he was buying up more UFA years, but it is interesting.

It seems like 7.5-8.5 is in the wheel house for sure.

[dino7c]

God I wish people would stop posting irrelevant contracts (not RFA and not this year)

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by dino7c

God I wish people would stop posting irrelevant contracts (not RFA and not this year)

These are not irrelevant....they may need to be adjusted for inflation, but suggesting that the last 1-3 years is not relevant is equally ignorant to those disregarding inflation.

Look at Morrissey, Keller, McAvoy and the Philly deals. Not everyone has gone full Dubas...

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dino7c

God I wish people would stop posting irrelevant contracts (not RFA and not this year)

I don't mind a span of a few years - you can make some adjustments there. But non-RFA is silly. Frankly, I still adjust for position as well. Centres are just generally worth more IMO. Even Draisaitl was intended to be a C when he signed.

I also still think what other players on the team make is relevant aside from the cap. Intellectually they may be able to understand cap inflation and the "new" market. But it still can't be easy to tell Gaudreau that Tkachuk deserves more money.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by dino7c

God I wish people would stop posting irrelevant contracts (not RFA and not this year)

Well, I think that there is a bigger question to be answered.

Can a team build a championship roster with a disproportionate allocation to a small number of elite players?

How effective will the work of a small number of disruptive GMs turn out to be?

ie. as all of the guys with comparable levels of productivity come up for renewal, is it sustainable?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

But it still can't be easy to tell Gaudreau that Tkachuk deserves more money.

No one needs to tell Johnny that. He sees what’s happening to the RFA market.

I think Clint Eastwood said it best.

“Deserve has got nothin’ to do with it.”




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Falclore]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

No one needs to tell Johnny that. He sees what’s happening to the RFA market.

I think Clint Eastwood said it best.

“Deserve has got nothin’ to do with it.”




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I agree. I think Johnny would be hoping that Matthew can get as big of deal as he can, then Johnny will be looking for a big raise on his next contract.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I don't mind a span of a few years - you can make some adjustments there. But non-RFA is silly. Frankly, I still adjust for position as well. Centres are just generally worth more IMO. Even Draisaitl was intended to be a C when he signed.

I also still think what other players on the team make is relevant aside from the cap. Intellectually they may be able to understand cap inflation and the "new" market. But it still can't be easy to tell Gaudreau that Tkachuk deserves more money.

Then Gaudreau should have signed a short term deal. Of all the things to worry about, how the players feel about the escalation in salaries shouldn’t be high on anyone’s list.

[Reggie Dunlop]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1173770109980041217

[Oling_Roachinen]

Using Boesser's contract as a comparable, i.e. a bridge-contract that brings him 2 years from UFA with a high QO, I would predict a 2-year contract at 13.75M total with 5.5M in the first and 8.25M in the second (I think that's legal as it's backloaded).

That's only if they can only reach an agreement on a bridge. Unfortunately I think we've missed the times when a bridge deal was so discounted (see Subban's holdout).

[Enoch Root]

I doubt very much the Flames would agree to 2 years at $6.875M

If it's 2 years, I would think it would be in the 5s

[Oling_Roachinen]

I know it's not a direct comparable, it's hard to assess with age and contract lengths, but Boeser is making:

Year 3 - 4M
Year 4 - 6.125M
Year 5 - 7.5M

Tkachuk made:

Year 3 - 0.925M (plus bonus)
Year 4 - ??
Year 5 - ??

I don't know how you can tell Tkachuk he is worth significantly less than Boeser like that.

[getbak]

After Boeser's deal, I could see Tkachuk coming in around $6.75 million for 3 years with a QO around $8.5 million.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I know it's not a direct comparable, it's hard to assess with age and contract lengths, but Boeser is making:

Year 3 - 4M
Year 4 - 6.125M
Year 5 - 7.5M

Tkachuk made:

Year 3 - 0.925M (plus bonus)
Year 4 - ??
Year 5 - ??

I don't know how you can tell Tkachuk he is worth significantly less than Boeser like that.

Trying to compare Boeser's year 3 to Tkachuk's year 3 is disingenuous. You have to compare post-ELC to post-ELC.

[Oling_Roachinen]

I'm not comparing their year 3s, I'm comparing their year 4 and 5s....

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I'm not comparing their year 3s, I'm comparing their year 4 and 5s....

But your making the same error.

[Vinny01]

I read on a sketchy Facebook clickbait article that Luke Fox of Sportsnet was speculating a TJ Brodie for Blake Coleman trade which frees up $2.8M for the Flames and they can sign Chucky to a 6 year 8.75M deal. (I am speculating on the coming tract that info was not in the article)

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Yes the contract negotiations are two ways, but the chance of losing Tkachuk in four years is a hill that Treliving should die on avoiding. If that means a higher cap hit for five or six years, or a bridge deal for one or two, so be it. Losing a 25 year old Tkachuk to UFA is worst case scenario that far overshadows signing him to a contract with a bit more money than they would have liked.

So one or two, five to eight, are the terms that should be discussed unless Tkachuk's camp is willing to give up pretty much everything else to be a UFA at 25, and a 6.75M cap hit isn't that.

So you're liking 3 years at 6.75 yet?