Ranking and Discussing the Top 6...

[Harry Lime]

It's not that long ago that teams were graded on how great their lines were, and not individual players. Sometimes you are going to have a line that doesn't look like it has "top 6 players" by the point totals, but are absolutely dominant.

I get the Backlund argument. He is a very good player. But watching the games, he puts up a lot of points when he is either the driver of the play, or the game is at the hash marks. He would honestly get exactly the same amount of points whether he played with Tkachuk and Mangiapane, as playing with garbage men like Bennett and Lucic. That's actually a very good thing. He has shown this consistency for years.

But to take advantage of Tkachuk's sneaky quick passes from out of traffic, of which he does at least once or twice a game, someone with better hands should be in the middle. Backlund just doesn't convert these. It's no slight on him, that is just not his game.

The best possible line would have Lindholm between Tkachuk and Mangiapane.

I bet Backlund would still generate 45-50 points from the third line, because his point totals have never been a result of quick hands or elite linemates.

This isn't basketball, and individual achievements mean nothing when it comes to wins.

Just my opinion, from watching the games.

[Textcritic]

^
I think you are right about this, and I have also maintained that it would be great to upgrade the second line with the addition of either another winger, or a centre, but I think this detracts from the point of Enoch's analysis. Simply put: the Flames's second line is a dominant line as it is constructed today. In other words, a personnel upgrade is not all that critical for the team to find success, which is in contrast to a fairly consistent running narrative encountered on this site.

[Harry Lime]

Not that I don't like the play of the second line. It's that watching Backlund and Tkachuk together drives me absolutely nuts, because their styles don't really mesh. Overall talent is still getting the job done, though.

I think that Lindholm would increase the entertainment value of the line, but I'm not sure if there's a metric for that.

I'm also selfish in wanting a Joel Otto style championship third line.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

^
I think you are right about this, and I have also maintained that it would be great to upgrade the second line with the addition of either another winger, or a centre, but I think this detracts from the point of Enoch's analysis. Simply put: the Flames's second line is a dominant line as it is constructed today. In other words, a personnel upgrade is not all that critical for the team to find success, which is in contrast to a fairly consistent running narrative encountered on this site.

I am not sure that's the point at all. I think the point was that the guys we currently have in the top 6 (well, last year) compare very favourably to the players on other teams.

I am all for finding other line-mates for Tkachuk to create a 2nd scoring line. That would move Backlund to a '3rd line' role, where he would be undeniably elite in comparison around the league. Who knows though, maybe Mangiapane elevates the 2nd line's offensive prowess, solving the problem.

This was more of an analysis of individuals, though what line a player plays on does have a massive impact on their performance.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by genetic_phreek

Great post Enoch, lots of good info in terms of individual contributions. I wonder what a bottom 6 ranking would look like.I would guess Doc, Janko, and Benny would be up there in their respective #s as well.

As far as below average goaltending, last season we were still top 10 as a team for goals against so not sure I would say that was an issue.

Based on playoffs and so far what I've seen this season, I think we are still plagued by individual speed. We play a good team speed game but when we are not in sync, it seems we get exposed quite a bit.

Me too. The challenge with the bottom 6 is that most teams have between 15 and 20 forwards over the course of the year, and it is really difficult to distinguish who the bottom 6 is.

Injuries are also a big factor, and for the top 6, I simply took the top 6 point getters, so if a top 6 guy was injured, someone else got a chance. But for the bottom 6, it gets really dicey.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by genetic_phreek

Great post Enoch, lots of good info in terms of individual contributions. I wonder what a bottom 6 ranking would look like.I would guess Doc, Janko, and Benny would be up there in their respective #s as well.

As far as below average goaltending, last season we were still top 10 as a team for goals against so not sure I would say that was an issue.

Based on playoffs and so far what I've seen this season, I think we are still plagued by individual speed. We play a good team speed game but when we are not in sync, it seems we get exposed quite a bit.

I don't think team speed is a problem because, when we do move the puck well, we are a fast team.

I think speed becomes a problem when they aren't moving the puck well and aren't transitioning well. I think it is a style of play issue, more than a personnel issue.

It's a great topic for debate though!

[dammage79]

In the fun game of what ifs, imagine the Zucker and Kadri deals went through. Thatd be a major top 9.

[Strange Brew]

If the top 6 played as well in the playoffs as they did through the season, there would be much less gnashing of teeth by Flames fans.

Question is, will they next time?

BTW I read an article on espn.com about a week ago that had the Flames forward group ranked 4th in the league.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

If the top 6 played as well in the playoffs as they did through the season, there would be much less gnashing of teeth by Flames fans.

Question is, will they next time?

BTW I read an article on espn.com about a week ago that had the Flames forward group ranked 4th in the league.

TBL obviously. Beyond that - TOR? BOS? SJS? WAS?

[David Struch]

I'm so glad we didn't acquire Zucker or Kadri...

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm
Tkachuk - Backlund - Mangiapane

Someone else will soon emerge from Phillips, Dubé, Zavgorodny or Pelletier.

[Geeoff]

I gotta admit. Early returns are pretty good on 2nd line Mangiapane.

[GullFoss]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

^
I think you are right about this, and I have also maintained that it would be great to upgrade the second line with the addition of either another winger, or a centre, but I think this detracts from the point of Enoch's analysis. Simply put: the Flames's second line is a dominant line as it is constructed today. In other words, a personnel upgrade is not all that critical for the team to find success, which is in contrast to a fairly consistent running narrative encountered on this site.

I would say the flames have five legit top six guys. But the fact that Tkachuk is elite and Backlund is an above average second liner is going to pull up whoever is riding shotgun with them.

I think the underlying problem with the flames is the third line. Really good teams have one or two top 6 guys playing on their third line. I think the organization recognizes this too, which is why they have targeted guys like Zucker and Kadri...both those moves effectively add a top 6 player to the third line.

If the flames can land a legit top 6 player via trade and/or two of Mangiapane/Bennett/Dube can develop into top 6 guys, then the flames would be legitimately be a Stanley cup favorite.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Me too. The challenge with the bottom 6 is that most teams have between 15 and 20 forwards over the course of the year, and it is really difficult to distinguish who the bottom 6 is.

Injuries are also a big factor, and for the top 6, I simply took the top 6 point getters, so if a top 6 guy was injured, someone else got a chance. But for the bottom 6, it gets really dicey.

Maybe looking at 7-9 or 7-10 would give something to look at, certainly scoring depth, while cutting out some of the noise

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Me too. The challenge with the bottom 6 is that most teams have between 15 and 20 forwards over the course of the year, and it is really difficult to distinguish who the bottom 6 is.

Injuries are also a big factor, and for the top 6, I simply took the top 6 point getters, so if a top 6 guy was injured, someone else got a chance. But for the bottom 6, it gets really dicey.

I think production from any forward not ranked 1-6 would work.

That as a total would take into account injuries and movement in and out of the lineup.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Great work ... I love the simple rankings to bring light to a team that we all follow too closely ... forest for the trees kind of thing.

Doing something similar with expected goal results helps too, as it brings in the defensive side of the game.

The Flames top three forwards (Tkachuk jumps Lindholm, but I forced Tkachuk back to #4 to make the Flames lines exact) are ranked 10th in xgoal diff, which brings to light the fact that Monahan and Gaudreau aren't that great defensively. The top line comes in at +1.08 / 60

Boston's top line is +1.38 / 60

Calgary's second line is 5th at +1.12 / 60

Backlund is the 7th best #5 forward and staying consistent with your points look.

What is boston's second line xGF?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

What is boston's second line xGF?

I did to Boston what I did to Calgary ... that is put the top line together instead of letting it just be a rank of the best 6 fowards in terms of xGF%

So the Boston top line is ranked 5th at +1.684 xgf

Boston's second line is made up of Krejci, Coyle and Heinen and rank 3rd at +1.15 xGF%

I think the true second line is Krejci, Debrusk and Kuhlman.

[Mike F]

FWIW, ESPN ranked all teams by forwards, and had this to say about the Flames:

This team's top six is sick. Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan are money in the bank, and the Mikael Backlund-Matthew Tkachuk-Michael Frolik line is the Western Conference's version of Boston's top line

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I did to Boston what I did to Calgary ... that is put the top line together instead of letting it just be a rank of the best 6 fowards in terms of xGF%

So the Boston top line is ranked 5th at +1.684 xgf

Boston's second line is made up of Krejci, Coyle and Heinen and rank 3rd at +1.15 xGF%

I think the true second line is Krejci, Debrusk and Kuhlman.

You are right about their true 2nd line, but I'm not understanding.

You say 1.38 for Boston's top line and then 1.684? How stupid am I right now that I cant figure out what you mean?

[SeanCharles]

Really the only hole in our top 6 is a 2nd line RWer.

Future outlook:

Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm
Tkachuk-Backlund-
Mangiapane-Ryan-Bennett
Lucic-Jankowski-Dube

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by David Struch

I'm so glad we didn't acquire Zucker or Kadri...

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm
Tkachuk - Backlund - Mangiapane

Someone else will soon emerge from Phillips, Dubé, Zavgorodny or Pelletier.

Sorry, but no. Yeah, so glad we didn't acquire an upgrade at 2nd line centre!!! Phew, dodged a bullet there!