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Old 05-08-2021, 08:37 PM   #3061
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Alberta is following its plan of not overwhelming hospitals. They were two weeks late again with restrictions but the level of restrictions is likely appropriate for the goal of the program.

Nova Scotia is likely over reacting right now and targeting areas that are not large sources of spread as they continue to try their Covid 0 approach in a triage environment. Their list of people excerpted from the travel ban easily exceeds the numbers of people that would be moving there.


Cases from outside Nova Scotia don’t matter when your case rate is 119/100k and have an rT of 1.56.

In two weeks cases are going to crash managing to that point in time is prudent.

This is why I sometimes get frustrated with the criticism the UCP gets. They have stated from the outset that the goal is not overwhelming the hospital system. Not cases. Not deaths. Hospitals. so far that hasn't happened.

Feel free to disagree with the stated goal.
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Old 05-08-2021, 08:48 PM   #3062
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This is why I sometimes get frustrated with the criticism the UCP gets. They have stated from the outset that the goal is not overwhelming the hospital system. Not cases. Not deaths. Hospitals so far that hasn't happened.

Feel free to disagree with the stated goal.
Edmonton canceled surgeries in December and both Calgary and Edmonton have Canceled surgeons this time around so that is the system being overwhelmed. My issue is that these points are clearly predictable and both times Kenny has done some half-assed steps before the real lockdowns resulting in the surgery cancelations. So Kenny certainly isnít doing a good job given his stated goal.

If thatís your goal and you are going to yo-yo lockdowns he also should have gotten rid of the phased approach. If we had just locked down until end of Feb and used enforcement to ensure compliance and then opened to ďsummer modeĒ then we wouldnít be in the third round and this third round was entirely predicable.

So in rating Kennyís handling of the pandemic his in action by waiting making the peaks higher killed more people then required while also canceling more surgeries than required and having an extra unnecessary lock down at the end because of not extending February longer.

So Kenny gets a C from me.

But his current lockdown feels about the right duration and length to get vaccines across the finish lines and people are going to be irrationally angry with him when he starts to open things when we still are having 1000 cases per day.
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Old 05-09-2021, 08:52 AM   #3063
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WHO not surprisingly is still a laggard here. However CDC seems to have caught up. Really looks like once Trump left the CDC has gotten much better thankfully.

Anyways, hopefully this pressures the WHO to admit reality. Funny thing is there is actually a influential Calgary doctor on the WHO who is a big on aerosol denying and keeping this bad advice in place.

Had the advice been different our restrictions would be different and probably better on people and have more compliance.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...-six-feet.html
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Old 05-09-2021, 09:13 AM   #3064
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This is why I sometimes get frustrated with the criticism the UCP gets. They have stated from the outset that the goal is not overwhelming the hospital system. Not cases. Not deaths. Hospitals. so far that hasn't happened.

Feel free to disagree with the stated goal.
There are certainly parts of our health care system that are horribly broken. Postponing some surgeries wouldn’t normally be huge deal, but many of those who’ve had surgeries cancelled have been waiting a year and a half already. This part of the health care system is needs to be blown up.
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Old 05-09-2021, 09:19 AM   #3065
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Edmonton canceled surgeries in December and both Calgary and Edmonton have Canceled surgeons this time around so that is the system being overwhelmed. My issue is that these points are clearly predictable and both times Kenny has done some half-assed steps before the real lockdowns resulting in the surgery cancelations. So Kenny certainly isnít doing a good job given his stated goal.

If thatís your goal and you are going to yo-yo lockdowns he also should have gotten rid of the phased approach. If we had just locked down until end of Feb and used enforcement to ensure compliance and then opened to ďsummer modeĒ then we wouldnít be in the third round and this third round was entirely predicable.

So in rating Kennyís handling of the pandemic his in action by waiting making the peaks higher killed more people then required while also canceling more surgeries than required and having an extra unnecessary lock down at the end because of not extending February longer.

So Kenny gets a C from me.

But his current lockdown feels about the right duration and length to get vaccines across the finish lines and people are going to be irrationally angry with him when he starts to open things when we still are having 1000 cases per day.
Itís that bolded sentence that I canít believe. Itís just pure Monday morning quarterbacking, and I donít know that thereís evidence to show this.
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Old 05-09-2021, 09:29 AM   #3066
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Originally Posted by corporatejay View Post
This is why I sometimes get frustrated with the criticism the UCP gets. They have stated from the outset that the goal is not overwhelming the hospital system. Not cases. Not deaths. Hospitals. so far that hasn't happened.

Feel free to disagree with the stated goal.
And disagreeing with the stated goal is criticism. And he failed at his goal. And the whole reason for his weird goal of "not deaths" was to keep the economy running smoothly and uninterrupted, so it's a pretty clear fail on all counts. Sorry, your boy blew it and continues to blow it.
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Old 05-09-2021, 10:25 AM   #3067
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This is why I sometimes get frustrated with the criticism the UCP gets. They have stated from the outset that the goal is not overwhelming the hospital system. Not cases. Not deaths. Hospitals. so far that hasn't happened.

Feel free to disagree with the stated goal.
Kenney's ultimate goal was "the economy". Managing hospital capacity was a way to achieve that.

"The economy" vs. deaths/cases was a false dichotomy. See Australia, Atlantic Canada, etc.

The hospital system has not been in great shape. In my family we had a surgery that was greatly delayed, and a bunch of tests and diagnosis needed for a heart condition that was also delayed by months. The backlog at the end of this is going to be massive and expensive. People will die because of delayed treatment. Given our government bizarrely doesn't care about deaths, people who's conditions progressed because of delayed treatment will be much more expensive to provide care for.

A government not caring about deaths seems to stem from a US style selfish culture of putting one's own desires above all else. Humans have thrived because of cooperation and the ability to work toward the greater good. The selfish individual rights culture needs to die, and die fast.
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Old 05-09-2021, 10:34 AM   #3068
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Itís that bolded sentence that I canít believe. Itís just pure Monday morning quarterbacking, and I donít know that thereís evidence to show this.
https://twitter.com/user/status/1355939450677829635

You probably should believe it.

Hereís your evidence. Itís about as much ďMonday morning QuarterbackingĒ as realizing that a person should have believed the weather forecast and waited out the blizzard instead of driving through it like an ignorant reckless hero.
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Old 05-09-2021, 10:55 AM   #3069
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It was really simple math weeks to lock down is (
current case * growth rate^X = acceptable cases. In February to open we need 10% growth rate per week to make it.

Everyone knew we were opening because the people were stopping complying so instead of increased enforcement Kenny chose a third lockdown.
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Old 05-09-2021, 11:17 AM   #3070
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Meanwhile Nova Scotia has never to my knowledge actually verbalized their Covid zero approach, and just kept saying “flatten the curve” all the way to zero cases. And then they ended up canceling more elective surgeries per capita in spite of dealing with virtually no Covid cases for most of the last year.

Lots of blame to go around all over, and lots of Monday morning quarterbacking.
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Old 05-09-2021, 12:05 PM   #3071
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Originally Posted by Boreal View Post
https://twitter.com/user/status/1355939450677829635

You probably should believe it.

Hereís your evidence. Itís about as much ďMonday morning QuarterbackingĒ as realizing that a person should have believed the weather forecast and waited out the blizzard instead of driving through it like an ignorant reckless hero.
Haha, sheís all over the map though. Like by her projections we should be at what, 10,000 cases a day now? Itís not like sheís nailed this.
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Old 05-09-2021, 12:37 PM   #3072
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It's not rocket science. If somewhere around 2-2.5K cases a day is the crisis point, that left Alberta with less than 3 doubling periods from the bottom of cases levels in mid-February. So if you wanted to get to June or something like that without hitting that point, that would mean cases could only double every 5-6 weeks. That's a pretty tall order when you're relaxing restrictions.

On the other hand, if cases continued dropping into February and they got to the end of February at 150 cases a day or something like that, that would leave 3.5-4 doubling periods over 3 months before you hit the 2K point. That's far more doable and at Alberta's actual March/April growth, cases would be about 1K a day right now.

You can make an argument that the population wouldn't have maintained the level of vigilance required to keep cases dropping, and that's a fair argument. But the idea that no one could predict cases rising again when restrictions were relaxed is asinine. And even if you want to be exceedingly charitable and say the increase was completely unpredictable, by March it did double in just over 2 weeks, so it was abundantly clear what was happening by that point, yet cases have doubled 2 more times since.
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Old 05-09-2021, 12:42 PM   #3073
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Haha, sheís all over the map though. Like by her projections we should be at what, 10,000 cases a day now? Itís not like sheís nailed this.
Which predictions show that? Post em up.
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Old 05-09-2021, 12:48 PM   #3074
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That's where I'm at, however it seems to indicate you can still see records show up before you're verified.
You should get an e-mail within 10 minutes that tells you you are verified. They still send the code in the mail. My understanding is that you have to enter the mailed code within 30 days or you lose your access.
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Old 05-09-2021, 01:15 PM   #3075
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Which predictions show that? Post em up.
Weíve done this. She had us at something like 5000/day in her projections around Christmas of the first of January. Then her projections for this wave (around the same tone as that piece above) showed us at over 2000/day at the end of March. I realize we hit that now, but itís not accurate. Itís basically just generating media clicks and attention at this point.
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Old 05-09-2021, 01:19 PM   #3076
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It's not rocket science. If somewhere around 2-2.5K cases a day is the crisis point, that left Alberta with less than 3 doubling periods from the bottom of cases levels in mid-February. So if you wanted to get to June or something like that without hitting that point, that would mean cases could only double every 5-6 weeks. That's a pretty tall order when you're relaxing restrictions.

On the other hand, if cases continued dropping into February and they got to the end of February at 150 cases a day or something like that, that would leave 3.5-4 doubling periods over 3 months before you hit the 2K point. That's far more doable and at Alberta's actual March/April growth, cases would be about 1K a day right now.

You can make an argument that the population wouldn't have maintained the level of vigilance required to keep cases dropping, and that's a fair argument. But the idea that no one could predict cases rising again when restrictions were relaxed is asinine. And even if you want to be exceedingly charitable and say the increase was completely unpredictable, by March it did double in just over 2 weeks, so it was abundantly clear what was happening by that point, yet cases have doubled 2 more times since.
I donít think thatís a fair characterization though because I donít think anyoneís suggesting that re-opening (in February) wouldnít lead to an increase in cases. Of course it would; to me that was never a question. The question is whether we could have just pushed out 2-3 weeks and been all set. Thatís just wishful thinking. It was in November (when people said we could have had a quick 2 week lockdown and a normal Christmas), and it was again in February.
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Old 05-09-2021, 01:37 PM   #3077
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Which predictions show that? Post em up.
Hereís her tweet from March 28:

Dear @jkenney @shandro ,
This below is a simple, straightforward projection:

At this growth rate, AB will have:

Apr 17, 2000 daily new B117 cases
Apr 25, 4000 new B117 cases
May 02, 8000 new B117 cases
May 05, 10000 new B117 cases

Please, prevent a disaster.
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Old 05-09-2021, 01:43 PM   #3078
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A government not caring about deaths seems to stem from a US style selfish culture of putting one's own desires above all else. Humans have thrived because of cooperation and the ability to work toward the greater good. The selfish individual rights culture needs to die, and die fast.
We trade lives for money and convenience all the time, itís just not talked about openly. Reducing speed limits across the board would save thousands of lives a year. Banning all gatherings of more than 20 people every flu season would save thousands of lives. Banning or punitively taxing unhealthy fast foods would save thousands of lives. Controlled crosswalks with lights are safer than basic painted crosswalks, but we only install them in high-traffic or high-collision locations because we donít have infinite money in municipal budgets to pay for them.

So calculations and cost-benefit analysis are drawn up in obscure recesses of bureaucracies. Policies are formulated. And the line (or rather hundreds of lines) gets drawn somewhere. We can disagree on where those lines get drawn, but pretending itís a matter of obvious and stark moral choice is unhelpful.
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Old 05-09-2021, 01:43 PM   #3079
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Originally Posted by Slava View Post
Here’s her tweet from March 28:

Dear @jkenney @shandro ,
This below is a simple, straightforward projection:

At this growth rate, AB will have:

Apr 17, 2000 daily new B117 cases
Apr 25, 4000 new B117 cases
May 02, 8000 new B117 cases
May 05, 10000 new B117 cases

Please, prevent a disaster.
Did that growth rate continue? If it didn’t, then that would change the projection.
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Old 05-09-2021, 01:48 PM   #3080
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Saskatchewan hits 70+% of over 40s with a dose, sets May 30th as their "Step 1" opening date.


https://www.saskatchewan.ca/governme...e-for-step-one
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