02-28-2020, 12:01 PM
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#421
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First Line Centre
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I'm getting some funds figured out (selling items and borrowing). Going to try to buy low this time around. All of my invested savings are crashing but I'll leave them in.
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02-28-2020, 12:44 PM
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#422
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
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I bought a bunch of leaps for Jan 2021 at strikes and premiums of where the stock traded on Tuesday. I won't sweat it if we go down or sideways for a bit.
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The Following User Says Thank You to burn_this_city For This Useful Post:
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02-28-2020, 02:13 PM
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#423
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Wow, that close on the S&P 500 was insane.
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02-28-2020, 02:33 PM
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#424
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava
Wow, that close on the S&P 500 was insane.
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Killing those puts in the last 2 mins
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02-28-2020, 02:40 PM
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#425
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sunnyvale
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Up over 300? What happened?
__________________
The only thing better then a glass of beer is tea with Ms McGill
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02-28-2020, 03:11 PM
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#426
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary, AB
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Yeah I don't think this will be a situation where it takes over 3-6 months to recover from. I think selling now would be potentially be a big mistake. I got scared and sold in the past and almost always regretted it. So I'm staying invested this time and will be looking to add starting next week.
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02-28-2020, 03:26 PM
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#427
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek Sutton
Up over 300? What happened?
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Nah, the S&P moved up by ~75 points in that last 10-15 though. That's insane.
As far as a guess on where things go, I have to be careful. But I would just say a lot of this depends on the virus and what happens there. Switzerland shutdown any event for groups of 1000 or more today though, and if that were to become widespread you have to think it suddenly gets very real for people.
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02-28-2020, 03:53 PM
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#428
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: east van
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiger
people are panicking, which will make this big, and people are selling off. I will definitely try to invest more at this time (if I have it). but what will make it worse is more and more people pulling money out.
2008 the market was really bad and fundamentally there were issues in the market. and that did take years to come back (chart below)
Other events that didn't take long though Sep 21-Dec 26 2018 15.8% drop on fed hike, china slow down. Nov 3 to feb 11 2016 middle east tensions, NK nuclear tensions 13.3% drop. may 20 to aug 24 2015 greece default fears 10.9%. apr 26-jul 1 2010. euro debt crisis 15.2% drop. These are all the greater than 10% drops that recovered fairly quickly. there was also a little 7.4% dip in 2014 with ebola and oil collaspe. Since 2009 there have been about 25 drops of 5% or more linked to some fears or some world events too.
Overall do you see this as a 2008 type crisis or one of these similar market events?
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The reason I don't think this market will bounce back quickly is because most of the fundamental issues of 2008 weren't addressed, just papered over and mostly moved into the no interest car loan sector which has been due to crater for years, the other difference is the current US administration is utterly inept where as 2008 was at least handled by half competent adults.
I suspect we are looking at the long protracted recession that we frankly have had coming for some time.
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02-28-2020, 06:16 PM
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#429
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Wow. China just reported a 35 PMI and 29 (!) for non-manufacturing PMI. That's throught the floor by a lot. The expected figure was 45...
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02-28-2020, 06:21 PM
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#430
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First Line Centre
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I had to do a little research about PMI scores. With 5 minutes of experience under my belt, I’m going to say it doesn’t sound good to be that far below 50.
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02-28-2020, 06:24 PM
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#431
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wwkayaker
I had to do a little research about PMI scores. With 5 minutes of experience under my belt, I’m going to say it doesn’t sound good to be that far below 50.
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Lol, yeah under 50 isn't good. Predicted score was 46 (which seems high under the circumstances), but 35 has to be a record low. And 29 is just terrible. You just don't see that regularly.
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02-28-2020, 06:43 PM
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#432
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I believe in the Jays.
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Kitsilano
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So stocks should continue to fall on Monday then?
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02-28-2020, 07:25 PM
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#433
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava
Nah, the S&P moved up by ~75 points in that last 10-15 though. That's insane.
As far as a guess on where things go, I have to be careful. But I would just say a lot of this depends on the virus and what happens there. Switzerland shutdown any event for groups of 1000 or more today though, and if that were to become widespread you have to think it suddenly gets very real for people.
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Game developers conference in San Francisco just cancelled. Huge economic activity just from the travel/hotel stays/deal making that won't happen now.
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02-28-2020, 08:17 PM
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#434
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: east van
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under
So stocks should continue to fall on Monday then?
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they might just stay flat, Asian markets will be the sign
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The Following User Says Thank You to afc wimbledon For This Useful Post:
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02-28-2020, 09:28 PM
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#435
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Uzbekistan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
Game developers conference in San Francisco just cancelled. Huge economic activity just from the travel/hotel stays/deal making that won't happen now.
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Italian soccer games being cancelled or played without fans in the stadium.
It's only a matter of time before that's the reality here.
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02-29-2020, 12:24 PM
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#436
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: east van
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first death in the US so I would expect the markets to crap the bed again on Monday, a quite weekend with no news would bring out the buyers but not now
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02-29-2020, 12:33 PM
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#437
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by afc wimbledon
first death in the US so I would expect the markets to crap the bed again on Monday, a quite weekend with no news would bring out the buyers but not now
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Do you think an emergency rate cut Sunday night would bring out the buyers?
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02-29-2020, 12:38 PM
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#438
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: east van
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava
Do you think an emergency rate cut Sunday night would bring out the buyers?
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Possibly, I figure we'll see a .50 cut this week, Trump will want a full 1% but the fed wont want to go that far that fast
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02-29-2020, 01:41 PM
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#439
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by afc wimbledon
Possibly, I figure we'll see a .50 cut this week, Trump will want a full 1% but the fed wont want to go that far that fast
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But what is a cut really going to do? Structurally, so much of this is supply issues with China being on lockdown and the demand drop there too. It's spreading across the world and people are deciding to stay at home and companies are getting supply chain backed up and closing down events.
Nobody that is staying inside and not buying stuff is going to look at a rate cut and changing their mind because of it.
Maybe it gives companies more ability to borrow to pay people to last longer if they're in trouble though? I'm not sure.
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02-29-2020, 02:29 PM
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#440
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Uzbekistan
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Anyone panic selling yet?
It's been so long since a big correction that many investors haven't had to practice what they preach, when discussing staying the course.
My money is in ETFs. My timeline is about 25-30 years. I won't be selling anything. If anything, deciding when to go bargain shopping is the big question.
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