2024 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Andrew

No doubt they will add. Another old guy. It's tough to sign in Toronto i get it but money talk too. Overpay to get ok production last year they signed kiermeir 10 turner 13 and ikf 8. Could havr signed hernandez or bigger bat and went replacement for rest and got more value ! Atkins etc stick to a budget I feel and talk to every free agent. Then.... Last min might get a bite. We'll I hope they take more risks. Save face on soto sign hernandez fans would love it.

Yeah. The budget teams (Ray's, etc) have shown the value you can get on pre-arb/arb1 guys. I really think it makes sense to save the money any time you're getting limited production compared to a replacement pre-arb guy. And the KK/Turner signings are a great example of that. Lots of money, not much incremental value. IKF was OK (and better than expected) but you're right it would have been better to get one big name that can put up numbers vs 3 role-players on FA deals.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Yeah. The budget teams (Ray's, etc) have shown the value you can get on pre-arb/arb1 guys. I really think it makes sense to save the money any time you're getting limited production compared to a replacement pre-arb guy. And the KK/Turner signings are a great example of that. Lots of money, not much incremental value. IKF was OK (and better than expected) but you're right it would have been better to get one big name that can put up numbers vs 3 role-players on FA deals.

Hernadez put up a 4.3 WAR, IKF 3.6

And Jays got assets for IKF trading him

I .... guess that extra half a win would have really changed the fortune of this team for 18 million extra dollars.

[Andrew]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Yeah. The budget teams (Ray's, etc) have shown the value you can get on pre-arb/arb1 guys. I really think it makes sense to save the money any time you're getting limited production compared to a replacement pre-arb guy. And the KK/Turner signings are a great example of that. Lots of money, not much incremental value. IKF was OK (and better than expected) but you're right it would have been better to get one big name that can put up numbers vs 3 role-players on FA deals.

Yes and our players that came up looked ok. Wagner and loperfido on trade.
Sure we don't have alot of so called top 100 prospects. Those lists are in the eye of the scout. So many players in minors in baseball hard for one scout to judge. I am high on nimalla and Bonilla. Finally some upside hitters.horwitz looked great. Martinez will hit too imo. Could just run with these guys and get a bug bat .

Horwitz looked good. Tj surgery ined our minor seasons. But those guys will make back...Maroudis was breakout before. Tiedeman u still have hopes. Really think manoah ks beast. He will come back. Mentality.... Bad luck for injuries

[Andrew]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Hernadez put up a 4.3 WAR, IKF 3.6

And Jays got assets for IKF trading him

I .... guess that extra half a win would have really changed the fortune of this team for 18 million extra dollars.

War is a good stat I don't disagree.

Analysis doesn't take into account what replacement would have done if given opportunity.

What does protection do for vlad? Horwitz etc. Just a deeper lineup means better pitches. We missing that for a while. All glove with no hrs.
I like to watch runs and hits. Maybe it's me

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Hernadez put up a 4.3 WAR, IKF 3.6

And Jays got assets for IKF trading him

I .... guess that extra half a win would have really changed the fortune of this team for 18 million extra dollars.

The post you quoted specified that IKF was better than expected.

Now do KK in the outfield and Justin Turner at DH for $23.5 MM

Vs Teoscar at DH for $23.5MM and Nathan Lukes in the outfield for <$1MM.

Because I think that 3.0 extra WAR for less than $1MM is a good deal. And yes, maybe Teoscar costs more for the Jays, but if you played Lukes the whole season you get more WAR from him likely.

[Jason14h]

I don’t understand what you are asking ? How does IKF at 3B impact Luke’s in the OF ?

Teo at 25 mil to play DH is about as bad as you can use your $$ unless you are a team like the Dodgers

Teo put up a career high WAR and barely outperformed IKF overall . And DH is the easiest spot to fill

Paying older guys is a risk and I agreee I did not understand the KK signing at all - but using that money plus IKF for a 25 million DH is also not wise

Unless you are saying don’t sign Turner and KK and instead get the big bat . Turner was suppose to bring versatility, winning experience , and good average with average power

Unfortunately old players are a huge risk . I would rather the Jays spend that money on the bullpen TBH

This is actually a major issue in the Jays philosophy- the play D first ball with a constantly low velocity bullpen that struggles to strike people out . I guess that’s why they go good D since a lot of balls in play

[Andrew]

What kills the jays is their inability to develop pitching. No budget relievers and no starters.

Have some high upside guys in all injured. Not sure why they don't trust their bullpen prospects too. They consistently don't promote them

Next level teams Tampa atlanta yanks dodgers even red Sox are starting to develop pitching.

There rotation is consistent but super expensive.

George springer decline also killing the jays
Let alot of guys walk though that have gone on to be successful in other teams eg payamps baker borucki Adam's thornton

I wouldn't bet on gausman berrios and bassist being healthy all year. It's just baseball. We need more pitching too

[Roof-Daddy]

Reports out there that the Jays have tabled the biggest offer for Soto....so far.

Should help Boras when negotiating with the other teams in on him lol

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Reports out there that the Jays have tabled the biggest offer for Soto....so far.

Should help Boras when negotiating with the other teams in on him lol

Exactly. It's almost like the Jays still don't know they are simply a bargaining chip. At least I have accepted this and understand that Soto will ultimately choose either NY or LA. I know if I was a professional athlete I would likely choose those locations as well.

[browna]

The Flames had the largest offer for Mike Richards before he signed with the Rangers.
The media will take these stories and run with them for clicks.

I'm sure the Jays know they were the largest offer, but as well by know now they are out of the running...proof is in the pudding how well their concurrent negotiations have gone with other players the past week or two.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

I don’t understand what you are asking ? How does IKF at 3B impact Luke’s in the OF ?

Teo at 25 mil to play DH is about as bad as you can use your $$ unless you are a team like the Dodgers

Teo put up a career high WAR and barely outperformed IKF overall . And DH is the easiest spot to fill

Paying older guys is a risk and I agreee I did not understand the KK signing at all - but using that money plus IKF for a 25 million DH is also not wise

Unless you are saying don’t sign Turner and KK and instead get the big bat . Turner was suppose to bring versatility, winning experience , and good average with average power

Unfortunately old players are a huge risk . I would rather the Jays spend that money on the bullpen TBH

This is actually a major issue in the Jays philosophy- the play D first ball with a constantly low velocity bullpen that struggles to strike people out . I guess that’s why they go good D since a lot of balls in play

I'm not talking about IKF at all. I'd rather have had Teoscar+Lukes in the 2 spots (OF/DH) than the KK/JT they signed. Same money, but the bigger name and the replacement guy combined for way more WAR.

I think strategically that makes sense. The more expensive/tested FAs are a way to add significant wins. It's expensive but does work (see Dodgers, Los Angeles). Intermediate FAs are still expensive but just not good enough to justify the difference between them and replacement players.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I'm not talking about IKF at all. I'd rather have had Teoscar+Lukes in the 2 spots (OF/DH) than the KK/JT they signed. Same money, but the bigger name and the replacement guy combined for way more WAR.

I think strategically that makes sense. The more expensive/tested FAs are a way to add significant wins. It's expensive but does work (see Dodgers, Los Angeles). Intermediate FAs are still expensive but just not good enough to justify the difference between them and replacement players.

But Teo was a 2.0 offensive WAR in 2023 . You usually don’t bet on a big bounce back / career year from a 32 year old coming off 2 consecutive down years

In hindsight obviously not signing KK and Turner who effectively turned out to be useless would have been a good idea . But spending 25 milllion on a DH coming off a 2.0 WAR isn’t a good use of money either. In reality both were really bad ideas.

There is a real good chance Teo ends up with the Jays this offseason and we will have Springer 2.0 (without the ability to play D) very soon .

And IKF was an intermediate FA and provided almost as much value as Teo . And if we sign Teo we don’t sign IKF (assuming they don’t have a higher overall salary)

Missing on any FA is bad. Putting $25 milllion in one basket for a 32 year old DH coming off a 2.0 WAR season is also disaster waiting to happen .

But really the Jays are in this position because they can not develop anything and are forced to constantly overpay on the FA market .

They have actually been remarkable good at choosing impact FAs and yet still are where they are

[Andrew]

Who do you sign? Soto is not coming we need a bat. .800 ops consistent 120+wrc a thumper protection to deepen lineup. Somebody can extend an inning consistently. Not many options that are reliable, young enough not see regression.

Best case scenario. Popich and loss martinez see a rebound on kirk springer etc...
Martinez and horwitz hit .750 ops. 110 wrc+
Vlad has another monster year and bo rebounds.
Then we are fine. One year your up one year your down can happen. Still have hopes for this year.

Except bullpen. I love Romano but management has injury report. I would go after Yates. He is nasty and seems to have a comeback last year
Finnegan (fip is kind of scary) , leclerc Holmes helesley (via trade) some options.

Bullpen last year rocked by early injuries to Garcia and Romano. Put ppl in roles they are not suited for . It happens. Just no depth.

I really not a fan of Atkins. Threw away years of vlad and bo. He can sign them and we might move on. But disappointing

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Andrew

Who do you sign? Soto is not coming we need a bat. .800 ops consistent 120+wrc a thumper protection to deepen lineup. Somebody can extend an inning consistently. Not many options that are reliable, young enough not see regression.

Best case scenario. Popich and loss martinez see a rebound on kirk springer etc...
Martinez and horwitz hit .750 ops. 110 wrc+
Vlad has another monster year and bo rebounds.
Then we are fine. One year your up one year your down can happen. Still have hopes for this year.

They need 1 outfielder,

They need an DH with power,

As for Martinez, not expecting the player to be on the day 1 roster.

As for Springer, not 100% sure he is an every day fielder,

My guess, when Soto officially signs (i.e. not with the Jays), Jays will make a trade to acquire position player.

[Inferno]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1863707929913802918

[Andrew]

Originally Posted by flambers

They need 1 outfielder,

They need an DH with power,

As for Martinez, not expecting the player to be on the day 1 roster.

As for Springer, not 100% sure he is an every day fielder,

My guess, when Soto officially signs (i.e. not with the Jays), Jays will make a trade to acquire position player.

My post is optimistic best case.

Martinez... probably not initially but I think brass is high on him. Otherwise would have been dealt. Got some power. Really right handed probably needs to beat out achneider unless they sign someone who plays infield.

George... he was good in June July. 674 opscon year. Think positive. Names: Rios carpenter Stanton had some bad years off top head. He can rebound. New coaching who knows
We got lot of infielder there will be a trade for sure

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Andrew

My post is optimistic best case.

Martinez... probably not initially but I think brass is high on him. Otherwise would have been dealt. Got some power. Really right handed probably needs to beat out achneider unless they sign someone who plays infield.

George... he was good in June July. 674 opscon year. Think positive. Names: Rios carpenter Stanton had some bad years off top head. He can rebound. New coaching who knows
We got lot of infielder there will be a trade for sure

Agreed on Martinez, however his suspension changes the timing...

My guess he is recalled, maybe June

As for George, his time has passed him by, next couple of season(s) will see further decline.

My guess, they won't play him full time.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by flambers

Agreed on Martinez, however his suspension changes the timing...

My guess he is recalled, maybe June

As for George, his time has passed him by, next couple of season(s) will see further decline.

My guess, they won't play him full time.

Yeah, Springer is more or less done. When repetitive injuries happen in baseball it's usually an indication of something chronic. We see these things time and time again which should heed not ever signing anyone to long term deals. Missing out on guys is so much better than being locked into money that can't be spent on others when you need it. Thankfully the Jays aren't true contenders where they need that roster money. I think he has a couple more years left on his deal which should be around the time where they can compete again, which may work out alright. Paying someone to take him on is futile.

[KelVarnsen]

This belongs here
https://www.thebeaverton.com/2024/12...-their-dreams/

[Inferno]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1864067455594750410