[Trade] Avs trade Barrie (50% retained), Kerfoot, 6th to Leafs for Kadri, Rosen, 3rd

[blankall]

Originally Posted by SportsJunky

Kerfoot for Brodie and Jankowski.

That is awful. Kerfoot would get ridden out of town here. He won't get top 6 minutes and his production will fall dramatically.

Jankowski putting up 32 points on the 3rd and 4th line is better performance than Kerfoot at 42 from the second.

[Flash Walken]

When Pierre said the flames overvalued their defense could this be what he was alluding to?

We've been hearing about Brodie in trade talks for weeks, even heard hsmonics name pop up.

Are the flames over valuing their defenders on the block?

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

When Pierre said the flames overvalued their defense could this be what he was alluding to?

We've been hearing about Brodie in trade talks for weeks, even heard hsmonics name pop up.

Are the flames over valuing their defenders on the block?

Hey, if you're basing your players values based off of the prices other teams made you pay, you'd overvalue them too!.

[Rando]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

I believe we dodged the bullet with not getting Kadri. Twice already I spoke about this before and got into arguments with people that did want him and with a Leafs' fan here, who really liked him. It was a bit puzzling that same posters who wanted Kadri vehemently argued against Evander Kane (when he could have been had for a song), who's very much like Kadri, but bigger, more aggressive and much more talented. I never liked Kadri's style of play, his unsportsmanlike attitude and his lack of discipline. A small, pesty centre, perennial 2nd-to-3rd line tweener. I would have hated excusing his tantrums just because he'd be on the Flames. Quite happy it didn't work out.

Despite being "much more talented" Kadri's career high in goals and points remains higher than Kane's. Kadri always plays the more important position, and has a much better two way game.

Nazem Kadri over Evander Kane, and it's not even f'n close

[SuperMatt18]

That’s a big win for Toronto IMO and I’m a big Kadri fan.

Kerfoot has put up 40 points a year while being good defensively and Barrie is still a good dman too.

[djsFlames]

Colorado plans on just scoring their way to a cup i guess.

Maybe Grubauer can stand on his head.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by blankall

That is awful. Kerfoot would get ridden out of town here. He won't get top 6 minutes and his production will fall dramatically.

Jankowski putting up 32 points on the 3rd and 4th line is better performance than Kerfoot at 42 from the second.

Not really - Kerfoot is actually pretty close to Kadri's production at 5v5 over the last two seasons when normalized for ice time, and better than Jankowski - especially if you look at primary points.

Over the last two seasons.

Kerfoot
1.31 Primary Points/60
58.29 Offensive Zone Starts

Kadri
1.38 Primary Points/60
50.0% Offensive Zone Starts

Jankowski
1.19 Primary Points/60
62.8% Offensive Zone Starts

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Not really - Kerfoot is actually pretty close to Kadri's production at 5v5 over the last two seasons when normalized for ice time, and better than Jankowski - especially if you look at primary points.

Over the last two seasons.

Kerfoot
1.31 Primary Points/60
58.29 Offensive Zone Starts

Kadri
1.38 Primary Points/60
50.0% Offensive Zone Starts

Jankowski
1.19 Primary Points/60
62.8% Offensive Zone Starts

Yeah but the comment was Brodie AND Jankowski for Kerfoot which is a bad trade for the Flames.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Yeah but the comment was Brodie AND Jankowski for Kerfoot which is a bad trade for the Flames.

Ok yeah that would be a bad trade for the Flames.

Funnily enough too that would be a similar type of trade to the Avs made for Kadri, and I think that was a similarly bad trade for them.

[Geeoff]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Ok yeah that would be a bad trade for the Flames.

Funnily enough too that would be a similar type of trade to the Avs made for Kadri, and I think that was a similarly bad trade for them.

I think that for some reason Barrie just hasn't fit into the Avs plans. I swear I've heard Barrie trade rumors for the entire time he's been an Av

[Split98]

Originally Posted by tkflames

Am I the only one that looks at the bottom 3 D and the bottom 4 forwards and backup goalie and wonders if any of them are NHL players on other NHL teams?

I can think of one...

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Ok yeah that would be a bad trade for the Flames.

Funnily enough too that would be a similar type of trade to the Avs made for Kadri, and I think that was a similarly bad trade for them.

I think it was an effing great trade for the avs.

Top 2 centres signed for term for 10.8 million.

That blows Calgary's comparison out of the freaking water.

Kerfoot was a free agent signing. Found money.

If backlund made a million less per year, was physically intimidating and scored 50% more goals, what would we value him at as flames fans.

Kadri to avs is a home run for them.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I think it was an effing great trade for the avs.

Top 2 centres signed for term for 10.8 million.

That blows Calgary's comparison out of the freaking water.

Kerfoot was a free agent signing. Found money.

If backlund made a million less per year, was physically intimidating and scored 50% more goals, what would we value him at as flames fans.

Kadri to avs is a home run for them.

It's a trade that makes sense for the Avs to get that second top 6 c center but I think they gave up too much value.

I really like Kadri as player. He's strong defensively, has a great contract, and plays with some dirt. But he is 29 years old, and hasn't always been a huge ES point producer. Kadri has averaged 30 even strength points per season over the last 6 seasons, and really his big years come on the back of increased PP time.

So a good acquisition for the Avs for sure but they gave up a ton to get him too.

Barrie is a 55+ point d-man that plays 22 minutes a game and can be a dynamic puck mover. Plus they retained 50% so the Leafs are getting him for only $2.75M which is a great deal.

Kerfoot is a 25 year old center that has put up 40+ points in each of his first 2 seasons in the NHL. Plus has had okay production at ES averaging 24 5v5 points through his first two seasons. Probably due for a raise but I feel like he'd get good return in a trade if they flipped him.

So Avs paid a lot to get 3 seasons of Kadri vs. 1 season of Barrie. From a pure value perspective Barrie should be equal to Kadri IMO, and they gave up Kerfoot to make up the term difference. Issue is though that really it's quite possible that Kerfoot at 27/28 will be just as good as Kadri at 31/32.

Dom Luszczyszyn has a player projection model that forecasts an NHL version of win shares and he has it break down as.

Kadri
18/19 - 1.1 (Actual result)
19/20 - 1.5
20/21 - 1.4
21/22 - 1.2

Barrie
18/19 - 2.6 (Actual Result)
19/20 - 1.8

Kerfoot
18/19 - 1.3 (Actual Result)
19/20 - 1.3
20/21 - 1.2
21/22 - 1.1

So based on his model Kerfoot was actually just as valuable as Kadri last year but Kadri still projects to be more valuable long term but it's probably closer than past results may look based on the players age.

Then on top of that the Avs gave up their best trade chip in Barrie as well, retained 50% of his salary, and IMO didn't get enough back for that.

[TheIronMaiden]

Reilly and Barrie on a top pairing is going to be very loosy goosy. No doubt they would have offensive potential, but man they would be scary in their own zone pulling number one assignments.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It's a trade that makes sense for the Avs to get that second top 6 c center but I think they gave up too much value.

I really like Kadri as player. He's strong defensively, has a great contract, and plays with some dirt. But he is 29 years old, and hasn't always been a huge ES point producer. Kadri has averaged 30 even strength points per season over the last 6 seasons, and really his big years come on the back of increased PP time.

So a good acquisition for the Avs for sure but they gave up a ton to get him too.

Barrie is a 55+ point d-man that plays 22 minutes a game and can be a dynamic puck mover. Plus they retained 50% so the Leafs are getting him for only $2.75M which is a great deal.

Kerfoot is a 25 year old center that has put up 40+ points in each of his first 2 seasons in the NHL. Plus has had okay production at ES averaging 24 5v5 points through his first two seasons. Probably due for a raise but I feel like he'd get good return in a trade if they flipped him.

So Avs paid a lot to get 3 seasons of Kadri vs. 1 season of Barrie. From a pure value perspective Barrie should be equal to Kadri IMO, and they gave up Kerfoot to make up the term difference. Issue is though that really it's quite possible that Kerfoot at 27/28 will be just as good as Kadri at 31/32.

Dom Luszczyszyn has a player projection model that forecasts an NHL version of win shares and he has it break down as.

Kadri
18/19 - 1.1 (Actual result)
19/20 - 1.5
20/21 - 1.4
21/22 - 1.2

Barrie
18/19 - 2.6 (Actual Result)
19/20 - 1.8

Kerfoot
18/19 - 1.3 (Actual Result)
19/20 - 1.3
20/21 - 1.2
21/22 - 1.1

So based on his model Kerfoot was actually just as valuable as Kadri last year but Kadri still projects to be more valuable long term but it's probably closer than past results may look based on the players age.

Then on top of that the Avs gave up their best trade chip in Barrie as well, retained 50% of his salary, and IMO didn't get enough back for that.

But the avs were never going to re-sign Barrie and I don't think kerfoot projects to be an NHL centre.

Kadri was the best piece in the market for what they needed and all it cost them was a player they weren't going to sign anyway and a player they poached from college free agency.

Dom's valuations don't take the lifecycle of a team into account. Having a guy under contract during the window to win is more valuable than 2 guys not under contract which was the direction the avs were heading with both players imo.

I would say the same about Calgary. Having Kadri under contract at an exceptionally reasonable rate is more valuable to the flames than many assets in the organization because of the timing of where the franchise is at.

For what was available for a team looking to win now, I think the avs win this trade even though it's a very good deal for both teams.

The avs also got a 3rd pick, a not inconsequential component of the return.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

But the avs were never going to re-sign Barrie and I don't think kerfoot projects to be an NHL centre.

Kadri was the best piece in the market for what they needed and all it cost them was a player they weren't going to sign anyway and a player they poached from college free agency.

Dom's valuations don't take the lifecycle of a team into account. Having a guy under contract during the window to win is more valuable than 2 guys not under contract which was the direction the avs were heading with both players imo.

I would say the same about Calgary. Having Kadri under contract at an exceptionally reasonable rate is more valuable to the flames than many assets in the organization because of the timing of where the franchise is at.

For what was available for a team looking to win now, I think the avs win this trade even though it's a very good deal for both teams.

The avs also got a 3rd pick, a not inconsequential component of the return.

I dont understand this.

He just played 2 seasons straight out of college and put up 40+ in both of them.

How does that not project to being an NHL C?

Im with you actually, I really really like this deal for the Avs, but its also a pretty good one for the Leafs considering where they are in cap room.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

But the avs were never going to re-sign Barrie and I don't think kerfoot projects to be an NHL centre.

Kadri was the best piece in the market for what they needed and all it cost them was a player they weren't going to sign anyway and a player they poached from college free agency.

Dom's valuations don't take the lifecycle of a team into account. Having a guy under contract during the window to win is more valuable than 2 guys not under contract which was the direction the avs were heading with both players imo.

I would say the same about Calgary. Having Kadri under contract at an exceptionally reasonable rate is more valuable to the flames than many assets in the organization because of the timing of where the franchise is at.

For what was available for a team looking to win now, I think the avs win this trade even though it's a very good deal for both teams.

The avs also got a 3rd pick, a not inconsequential component of the return.

I get why the Avs did it - I just think they gave up too much value.

It's been a bit of an interesting offseason of signings/trades for the Avs so far, I think they've gotten better overall, and at least they seem to have extended their window a bit, but I'm actually not 100% sure.

Trades
Out:
Barrie (28 - 14 goals, 59 points)
Kerfoot (25 - 15 goals, 42 points)
Soderberg (34 - 23 goals, 49 points)
2020 2nd
2020 3rd

In:
Kadri (29 - 16 goals, 44 points)
Burakovsky (24 - 12 goals, 25 points)
Connaughton (29 - 1 goal, 8 points)
Rosen (25 - 8 career NHL games)
2020 3rd
2020 3rd

Free Agency
Out:
Varlamov (49 starts, 20 wins)

In:
Donskoi (27 - 14 goals, 37 points)
Bellemare (34 - 6 goals, 15 points)

I do still think they try to make another splash though...could see them looking at another RFA if they had interest in Aho.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I dont understand this.

He just played 2 seasons straight out of college and put up 40+ in both of them.

How does that not project to being an NHL C?

Im with you actually, I really really like this deal for the Avs, but its also a pretty good one for the Leafs considering where they are in cap room.

I think he's a winger in the NHL.

He seemed to be playing wing when I watched avs games last year.

Also don't think he's going to get ~15 mins a night in Toronto like he did in Colorado.

I like the player a lot, but I don't believe he's necessarily a top 6 roster player going forward on a contending team.

I think it's an excellent trade for both teams. The leafs are deeper at C than Calgary is at D, and dealt from a position of strength to address two weaknesses. Vice versa for the avs.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I get why the Avs did it - I just think they gave up too much value.

It's been a bit of an interesting offseason of signings/trades for the Avs so far, I think they've gotten better overall, and at least they seem to have extended their window a bit, but I'm actually not 100% sure.

Trades
Out:
Barrie (28 - 14 goals, 59 points)
Kerfoot (25 - 15 goals, 42 points)
Soderberg (34 - 23 goals, 49 points)
2020 2nd
2020 3rd

In:
Kadri (29 - 16 goals, 44 points)
Burakovsky (24 - 12 goals, 25 points)
Connaughton (29 - 1 goal, 8 points)
Rosen (25 - 8 career NHL games)
2020 3rd
2020 3rd

Free Agency
Out:
Varlamov (49 starts, 20 wins)

In:
Donskoi (27 - 14 goals, 37 points)
Bellemare (34 - 6 goals, 15 points)

I do still think they try to make another splash though...could see them looking at another RFA if they had interest in Aho.

If I was the avs I would be looking at offersheeting tkachuk for 10.6x5 and signing rantanen to 11x7.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

If I was the avs I would be looking at offersheeting tkachuk for 10.6x5 and signing rantanen to 11x7.

Colorado doesn't have their second or third round picks in 2020. I don't think they can tender an offer sheet.