Playoff Probabilities

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

And do they factor in possession stats?

Possession stats do not translate to wins.

ALL teams have better possession stats when they are trailing a game rather than when they are ahead in the game.

That is a fact link

A team that is ahead in the game has a much higher probability of winning that game than the team that is trailing and padding their possession stats.

It is intuitive as well.... If playing with a 1 or 2 goal lead a team is far more comfortable dumping it into a corner rather than taking a low quality attempted SOG. When trailing just shoot it on goal and hope for the best.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Both wild card spots are up for grabs... standings are tight

15 Game Splits this year:

7-7-1
8-5-2
9-4-2
5-5-5

Exactly half the season this year has been played to a tune of 12-12-6, while the other half has been played at 17-9-4. I don't know what to make of this group and I'm not convinced they do either. I'd like to think the Flames can pull it off and sneak in with a hot month to close out the year, but I do not like the team's chances in a 7 game series when they have been struggling to piece anything resembling consistency together since mid January. Either way they need to get back to the 17-9-4 team in a hurry or risk completely falling out of the hunt.

[troutman]

Big swing tonight - regulation loss/regulation win = 29.5%/45.3%

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html

[442scotty]

I don't know why Treliving decided to go all in this year when he also wondered out loud where the scoring was going to come from? Pressure from above? At any rate, the die was cast very early in the season.... stick a fork in it. This turkey is done.

At least be entertaining for the rest of the year

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by 442scotty

I don't know why Treliving decided to go all in this year when he also wondered out loud where the scoring was going to come from? Pressure from above? At any rate, the die was cast very early in the season.... stick a fork in it. This turkey is done.

At least be entertaining for the rest of the year

He didn't go all in on this year alone. He is set up for a couple of years. Need some changes thiugh

[kukkudo]

One thing is for sure, they miss and major changes happen.

[dino7c]

Going all in would be trading top picks for rentals ect. It's not like Hamonic won't be on the team next season

[PlayfulGenius]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

15 Game Splits this year:

7-7-1
8-5-2
9-4-2
5-5-5

Exactly half the season this year has been played to a tune of 12-12-6, while the other half has been played at 17-9-4. I don't know what to make of this group and I'm not convinced they do either. I'd like to think the Flames can pull it off and sneak in with a hot month to close out the year, but I do not like the team's chances in a 7 game series when they have been struggling to piece anything resembling consistency together since mid January. Either way they need to get back to the 17-9-4 team in a hurry or risk completely falling out of the hunt.

I'd think a record of 12-6-4 to close out gets them in comfortably... certainly attainable without having to necessary have their best stretch of the year.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Going all in would be trading top picks for rentals ect. It's not like Hamonic won't be on the team next season

Which of the 10 long term big money deals is having a bad season this year and will be better next year?

Maybe Brodie.?? Frolik?? Backlund?? Brouwer ?? will they be better next year?

I don't see that there is going to be a big improvement with Gaudreau, Monahan, Gio, Hamilton, Hamonic, Stone, Smith are pretty much as good as they are expected to be.

This team is basically the definition of all in. They are spending close to the cap and the only guy coming off is Stajan's 3.15 most already spent by Backlund's raise.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Going all in would be trading top picks for rentals ect. It's not like Hamonic won't be on the team next season

If Treliving isn't all in now, I'm scared to know what that will look like 3-4 years down the road with only one significant draft pick for the next two years.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by 442scotty

I don't know why Treliving decided to go all in this year when he also wondered out loud where the scoring was going to come from? Pressure from above? At any rate, the die was cast very early in the season.... stick a fork in it. This turkey is done.

At least be entertaining for the rest of the year

Team isn't done yet. Wildcard looks like the more likely route though. The Central teams do not have these spots locked up yet. The final schedules of Dallas, St Louis and Minnesota look tough. Lot of tough teams and head to heads. If we can take care of business and we let the schedule unfold, I think we can squeak in ahead of these guys. I actually wouldn't be surprised if the Pacific teams took both wildcard positions.

But yes, if we do miss, a lot of blame should be placed on the feet of Treliving who didn't find enough scoring. He's been lucky Johnny is top 3 in league scoring this season because he wasn't, we'd be a lottery team with out a 1st round pick.

[ForeverFlameFan]

The bright side of our schedule is that in our last 5 games of the season, we aren't having to literally fight over a playoff spot with LA/Anaheim/San Jose playing against them, the last 5 are:

CBJ
EDM
ARI
WPG
VGK

So we can really control our destiny with those last 5, considering that this playoff race will come down to the wire.

[Flash Walken]

I"m here for troutman's sportsclubstats

[wingmaker]

I understand all the negativity. Flames are in a tough spot. But they have a lot of "taking care of business" games left on the schedule:

3 against Arizona
2 against Edmonton
1 against Ottawa post deadline
1 against Rangers post deadline
1 against Buffalo

They also finish the season against Winnipeg and Vegas at a time when both teams will have their playoff positions locked up and with not much to play for.

Obviously non of these games are gimmes, especially since Edmonton in particular has not been an easy out for the Flames, Arizona is playing much better lately, and they have also lost to the Rangers and to Buffalo this year, but still... if you include the final two games, that's 10 games where the Flames should be the more motivated team, nearly half of the schedule. There is reason to be optimistic if you want to see it.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by 442scotty

I don't know why Treliving decided to go all in this year when he also wondered out loud where the scoring was going to come from? Pressure from above? At any rate, the die was cast very early in the season.... stick a fork in it. This turkey is done.

At least be entertaining for the rest of the year

I think he expected more from Brouwer and Bennett; like the rest of us.
If those 2 performed at even 70% of expectation, this season would have been very successful.

Expecting something out of Jagr was part of it too. Those 3 combined should have been a lot of offence.

Most of our top players have had very a very good season and we've had great goaltending. The secondary guys have really let us down.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by kukkudo

One thing is for sure, they miss and major changes happen.

I don't know about major. There would hopefully be a new head coach and a bit of a roster shakeup which involved hopefully Brodie moved out for a top scoring winger. Maybe they go after Kane, Maroon, etc. This teams is close so you don't need to tear it down as it just needs a scoring boost and better coaching staff.

[The Boy Wonder]

Hopefully quennville considers signing in Calgary this offseason. He’s be an excellent coach behind the bench. It also seems like they won’t be extending this coaching staff and their contracts are up after this year. I wish there was a decent interim coach who could take over right now, this team is skilled enough to go deep they are just playing a terrible system.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by The Boy Wonder

Hopefully quennville considers signing in Calgary this offseason. He’s be an excellent coach behind the bench. It also seems like they won’t be extending this coaching staff and their contracts are up after this year. I wish there was a decent interim coach who could take over right now, this team is skilled enough to go deep they are just playing a terrible system.

Pretty sure Gulutzan has a 3 year deal so his contract won't be up until 2019. I also disagree that we're skilled enough to go deep. We have 1 elite play maker, a lot of inconsistent finishers and plenty of grinders. People need to adjust their expectations. Just look at other teams that are expected to go deep and compare:


Pittsburgh: Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Hornqvist, Guentzel and etc
Tampa: Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, Johnson, Palat, Namestnikov, Gourde & etc
Winnipeg: Wheeler, Scheifele, Ehlers, Laine, Little, Connor, Perreault and etc
Boston: Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak, Krejci, Spooner, Backes, Heinan & etc
Nashville: Forsberg, Arvidsson, Johansen, Turris, Fiala, Smith, Hartnell, Bonino and etc
Toronto: Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Vanriemsdyk, Kadri, Marleau, Bozak & etc


There's other teams, but I think everyone gets the point. Does anyone honestly think our forward group has anything on these teams? We still have a lot of young guys who still need to grow into high impact players, but aren't there yet or may not get there. But there's no question in my mind that we're not even close to being deep enough to go far. We're extremely top heavy and the stats and eye test prove that to me.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Pretty sure Gulutzan has a 3 year deal so his contract won't be up until 2019. I also disagree that we're skilled enough to go deep. We have 1 elite play maker, a lot of inconsistent finishers and plenty of grinders. People need to adjust their expectations. Just look at other teams that are expected to go deep and compare:


Pittsburgh: Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Hornqvist, Guentzel and etc
Tampa: Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, Johnson, Palat, Namestnikov, Gourde & etc
Winnipeg: Wheeler, Scheifele, Ehlers, Laine, Little, Connor, Perreault and etc
Boston: Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak, Krejci, Spooner, Backes, Heinan & etc
Nashville: Forsberg, Arvidsson, Johansen, Turris, Fiala, Smith, Hartnell, Bonino and etc
Toronto: Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Vanriemsdyk, Kadri, Marleau, Bozak & etc


There's other teams, but I think everyone gets the point. Does anyone honestly think our forward group has anything on these teams? We still have a lot of young guys who still need to grow into high impact players, but aren't there yet or may not get there. But there's no question in my mind that we're not even close to being deep enough to go far. We're extremely top heavy and the stats and eye test prove that to me.

Most of these players listed were nobodies like our own group. It took team success and an opportunity to succeed to elevate their value. Who's to say that with a different coach Bennet wouldn't be a 20 G guy. Or Brodie isn't the NHLs envy. Or Gio is the top 3 d in Norris voting.

Or maybe they were at one point ?

Also I recall a bunch of teams that were stacked and did nothing. Can we forget the Rangers of late 90s or the Selane + Kariya Aves? We saw this year after year. Star players are only a part of the equation.

[The Boy Wonder]

Originally Posted by Red

Most of these players listed were nobodies like our own group. It took team success and an opportunity to succeed to elevate their value. Who's to say that with a different coach Bennet wouldn't be a 20 G guy. Or Brodie isn't the NHLs envy. Or Gio is the top 3 d in Norris voting.

Or maybe they were at one point ?

That's what I think it is:

Our top guys have been stellar with this coaching staff, but they were also stellar under the last coaching staff,

Our young guys and underachieving guys haven't been good under this coaching staff. Would be great to change it up and see what happens with a new approach.

Getting Bennett in positions with players he has shown incredible chemistry with in limited playing time (tkachuk or gaudreau) and letting brodie drive play from the back end like he could under Hartley might be just the kick in the butt these guys need