Quote:
Originally Posted by Philly06Cup
Sadly that has what this award has become. If you have good teammates or elevate your teammates, it eliminates you from this award.
So, the front runner has to be McDavid. The Rod Smith soundbite confirms this is how the media thinks. If the oilers make the playoffs, it's his.
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I sort of agree, but there are a few caveats. First, if someone wins the Art Ross by a lot - say, ~10 points - and his team makes the playoffs, that's the trump card. Since Kucherov is on pace to do that, and he's the best player on not just the best team in the league but the best team we've seen in the league in some time, he's the current front runner.
Second, the whole "best player on a mediocre team who drags them into the postseason" story works better for the Devils and Avs last year than it does for the Oilers, as those two teams were more or less just feel-good turnaround stories. The Oilers are a debacle, there's no "feel good" there, it's just constant negativity and bile. So I'm not sure that the narrative works for McDavid there. That being said, he may still get a bump if they do get into the postseason, as it would take a strong streak of winning towards the end of the season, and voters are biased towards things that happen late in the season (see Corey Perry's Hart Trophy).
Third, on the opposite end, McDavid is the league's "guy" post-Crosby, he automatically gets consideration for the trophy, and so has an inherent marketing-based advantage in terms of being a favourite even before the season starts.
Finally, there may be some momentum to give the award to MacKinnon, as he arguably deserved it just as much as hall last year, but didn't get it. On the other hand, there will be people claiming that he's not even the best player on his team, which for me is enough to convince me that he probably won't unless he winds up with more points than Rantanen.
To sum up,
1. If Kucherov outscores McDavid significantly, Kucherov wins it;
2. If Kucherov outscores McDavid by only a little, McDavid probably gets it, but only if the Oilers make the playoffs.
3. If the top scorers in the league are relatively close and one of them is MacKinnon,
and he outscores Rantanen,
and the Avs make the playoffs, MacKinnon has a good chance at getting it.
4. Johnny Gaudreau has almost no chance of winning unless he wins the Art Ross, and even then, he might not if other players are within a few points of him and have more easily told stories.
If I were betting now I'd bet on Kucherov.
