[PGT] They lost to the Coyotes

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

And the problem im taking with that argument is that there is no proof this team takes 20 extra low danger muffin shots a game.

Sometimes the puck just doesn’t go in for teams - it’s why teams have such different shooting percentages Year to year.

Last year Tampa missed the playoffs, this year same coach and same team shoot 1.5% better and they look elite again.

The problem I think most on the shot argument side have is that just because the puck doesn’t go in, doesn’t mean the shot was an extra low danger muffin. Sometimes the puck just doesn’t go in for you - and you see teams & players have seasons like that year after year and people go “oh that player/team really took a step back”.

Coaching, mental toughness, special teams, shots against, and goaltending on home ice are real problems this teams had this year. Taking too many shots was not a problem or a bad thing.

Shot execution was clearly also a problem though because if they had even an average shooting percentage between this year and last then they would rank 11th in GF instead of 20th - it’s that fine of a line in this league. Plus those numbers don’t even include the fact we lead the league in missing the net.

Look simply at how Vegas jumped on the Brodie turnover and quickly and deftly executed their 2 on 1. Calgary just does not do that.

Forget your rebuttal trying to discuss finding muffins. None of Calgary’s 20 shots in the first were of that level of quality and if you watched the game you know that. That was unstoppable and not on Smith

Time and space. Just think in those terms. Calgary gives the opponents time and space, and they get in return a quantity of shots. It’s not that they are muffins, it is that they are forced. In terms of time and space. Crap shooting pct is not bad luck, it is forced shots. Throwing every piece of crap shot on net

Missing the net is the same narrative. Other team D is forcing them.

I saw 50+ shots from a team that never looked dangerous against two teams from New York and I saw 20 in a period against Vegas. Didn’t feel anything near dominant dangerous, step on a team’s throat and run them out of a game.

Stats can reinforce a hypothesis but they can’t overturn reality.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by crapshoot

Might as well give him a few spins with Gaudreau on his wing. Just about the only feel-good story we have left at this point.

That should be the plan for Game #1000 on Wednesday night. Shut Monahan down for the season and let Stajan centre the top line.

[Chingas]

When Tkachuck and Gio are the only players that play with passion we have an issue. Are the rest of the players really not passionate about the game they have played their whole life or has GG neutered the whole team?

[Dr. Doom]

GG is a terrible coach

The team has obviously quit on him, zero creativity whatsoever.

And I stand by it they have no idea how to activate the D which is what makes or breaks this team offensively.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by Dion

Losing Smith to injury was the turning point in the season. Team never recovered after that continued on a downward descent to missing the playoffs.

I think aliens abducted the real Flames during the bye week.

[tkflames]

It's interesting to read different people's takes in this thread on what the problem is:

1. Team toughness
2. Right wing scoring
3. Scoring depth
4. Bad defense
5. Brutal bottom 6
6. Lack of leadership
7. Bad coaching

On paper I don't think this team is in the bottom 16 in any of the first 5 categories. In a flat league, every team has holes except those that are able to have ELC guys play too roles. Even Tampa wishes they could have bishop as a second goalie I am sure. The differentiator is how well your team is able to cover these holes by excelling in other areas. The Flames strategy this year was to cover any forward holes by having a strong top 4. I don't think that was the wrong strategy.

Where this team fell down in my view is between the ears (The last two items). They play a predictable brand of hockey with a slow transition (whether by design or otherwise). They also respond to controversy very poorly. There is a strong argument to be made that the Las Vegas turnover is the turning point of the entire season. The challenge with this is that mental strength comes from overcoming adversity. Continuously pointing out that you are mentally weak makes this a belief rather than helps you understand and correct this. GG has some strengths but "mental management" is not one of them. What is worse is that he has surrounded himself with a support team that has a similar mindset and experience level. It is my belief that in order to overcome adversity you need one or more of the following the ingredients:

1. Experience: you have done it before and you can lean on that belief.

2. A strong leader who has done it before: someone who can pick up the teams mental state and place the motivation and focus beyond individual lack of self confidence and to a greater goal. Ray Borque crying after game 5 and telling the guys that they will determine if he plays one or two more games is an extreme example of this.

3. A blind commitment to a succesful process of which you are a cog in the wheel. A military type approach to doing things the right way where you are mentally separated from the circumstance or pressure.

The problem is that only the first two lead to greater mental strength . The third "can" build the experience for the first. During our 2014 run, I thought that they were building 1. The last two years while they have improved their technical game has come at a high expense of mental toughness. We are very much at a turning point. The right mix of leadership and direction can turn this team from a team that had a "young comeback kids attitude" with technical experience to take the next step and begin overachieving. The wrong mix will destroy this team to underachieve until the next rebuild.

The problem with this mindset is that if I don't agree with the changes this summer....I may need to take a longer holiday from actively following this team...

[burn_this_city]

Glad I went to bed after the 2nd rather than end up tired today.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

Ok this is coming from another advanced stats supporter. You have to stop. The point Dammage was making was that just because you get a bunch of shots doesn't mean you will win games rather the teams you referenced above have ELITE players that can finish and probably better coaching then Calgary has had for years. FFS just let people vent.

He responded to me first on another post I made. I’m going to continue arguing if I want and will respond if I want to.

Sorry that I didn’t just post the accepted “fire Gulutzan and trade everyone” post.

[kukkudo]

Went to bed at 2-2 wake up and it's 5-2 Coyotes. Burn this season to the ground.

[JT96912]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Glad I went to bed after the 2nd rather than end up tired today.

Me too!

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Look simply at how Vegas jumped on the Brodie turnover and quickly and deftly executed their 2 on 1. Calgary just does not do that.

Forget your rebuttal trying to discuss finding muffins. None of Calgary’s 20 shots in the first were of that level of quality and if you watched the game you know that. That was unstoppable and not on Smith

Time and space. Just think in those terms. Calgary gives the opponents time and space, and they get in return a quantity of shots.

What I don’t get is why this fanbase jumped on the “The shots we take are no good” side being the problem.

The shots and scoring chances we generate seems fine (horrible PP notwithstanding) considering we lack scoring talent and speed at forward. It’s the shots that we give up that are a problem, especially when we are down and pushing for a goal.

I’ve been watching some other teams lately and it makes me really wish the league tracked 2 on 1s because I swear they are not nearly as frequent in other games I watch as they are against the Flames.

You see lots of 3 on 2s (Flames generate lots of those IMO) and usually a guy sneaks in for a breakaway a couple times a game but I feel like the rest of the league doesn’t give up that many 2 on 1s. Flames however tend to bleed them, especially once they are down.

Vegas game is the perfect example. Brodie has no forechecker on him, all the time in the world, he forces a flat footed pass and boom 2 on 1.

Later on that game it’s a 4 on 4 and a Giordano pinches, Monahan doesn’t cover, its creates a 3 vs 2 situation on the wall and they lose the battle. 2 on 1 back the other way.

Our problem is the chances we give up not the chances we create.

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I don’t have a whole lot of respect for players that quit on a coach.

Totally agree with this! I highly doubt this loss was the result of the players wanting to send BT a message when their playoff lives are at stake (as some are suggesting). And if that is the case, GG is the least of our problems.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

losing Tkachuk was a lot bigger than I thought it would be. Guy is a huge part of this team.

Fear not. The season was well over before losing Tkachuk. Same thing with the Smith injury. The writing was on the wall when this team came back from the bye week looking like the same team we all saw for 90% of the Gulutzan era, getting smoked again by the flaccid Oilers shortly thereafter was the one that stands out for me.

[Ryan Coke]

Excusing their low shooting percentage and losing in spite of very good Corsi as bad luck invites a deeper view into ‘why’. Bad luck over 2 seasons leads us to look at why this team doesn’t get results that match certain desired statistical indicators.

The 2 specific issues I feel cause the disconnect are slow transition game and lack of speed overall, and the coaches apparent disinterest in one timers.

On the PP, if a player is playing his handed side, there aren’t any opportunities to one time a shot. So by the time the player gets the puck, controls it, turns to face the net, and gets the shot off, the goalie is set, and defenders are able to get sticks and bodies in front of it.

It counts as a high danger scoring chance due to location of the shot attempt, but that shot is unlikely to go in, is more likely to get saved or blocked, or shot wide trying to pick a corner on a set goalie. That is a systemic problem. I believe if we had Ovechkin or Stamkos here, and if GG put them on the right side of the ice negating their one timer, their shooting percentage would drop.

Speed of transition is the same thing. Our system prioritized puck possession, not a bad thing. But the default is to pass back, more D to D passes, in order to lower the risk of a turnover with a higher risk pass. As others have pointed out, you give the D more opportunity to be set so once you get into the zone and work it around to get a shot, it is more likely a lower quality shot from the point with a bunch of traffic in front. The upside is possible deflections and rebounds, assuming you have players driving the front of the net. The downside is far more blocked shots and wide shots. Corsi good, scoring not so much.

There are other issues, for sure, but these are specific examples of why chasing Corsi (and the current statistical definition of high danger scoring chances) is ineffective; we are seeing evidence that it is a symptom, not a cause, of winning hockey.

[Bonded]

I wish Brad could have put Lotto protection on that pick. Hopefully they keep it above a top ten pick.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by tkflames

It's interesting to read different people's takes in this thread on what the problem is:

1. Team toughness
2. Right wing scoring
3. Scoring depth
4. Bad defense
5. Brutal bottom 6
6. Lack of leadership
7. Bad coaching

On paper I don't think this team is in the bottom 16 in any of the first 5 categories.

Really? One could argue the are in The bottom half of the league in 1, 2 and 5.

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by Rick M.

I think aliens abducted the real Flames during the bye week.

Outside of the 7 game winning streak, our record this season is 28-29-10 in 67 games played (.493 winning percentage). That is not even close to being a playoff-calibre team over a huge chunk of the season.

We're 20th in goals allowed...despite coming into the season having arguably one of the top 3 defences in the league on paper. And yet our biggest problem is scoring goals.

It's just tough to take. Coaching needs a change but there are many problems with the structure of this team, given how poorly they performed.

[Toonage]

The OT points masked a poor W/L record, and whats worse was that during the season we saw the Flames dominance at 3 on 3 erode as teams learned how to better game plan against them and the Flames coaches couldn't respond. The Flames also had a great record when leading after 2 periods but the opposing teams also found a way to break through the prevent defense that GG would deploy.

[rooster]

Originally Posted by Chingas

When Tkachuck and Gio are the only players that play with passion we have an issue. Are the rest of the players really not passionate about the game they have played their whole life or has GG neutered the whole team?

So true, Ryan Reaves bitchslapped the whole team when he ran over Brody and nobody did anything. Eckmon - Larson did the same thing when he ran over Gio then slashed him and nobody did anything. The only way to change the culture is to change the leaders, who are usually your best players.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by rooster

So true, Ryan Reaves bitchslapped the whole team when he ran over Brody and nobody did anything. Eckmon - Larson did the same thing when he ran over Gio then slashed him and nobody did anything. The only way to change the culture is to change the leaders, who are usually your best players.

How to fix team: get rid of best players.

...it's beyond illogical.

Two moves that I think are absolutely necessary to cut out the rot:

1. Coaching is a huge part of team leadership, removing the current coach would be the single biggest change possible.

2. Brouwer is a bad player, a bad on-ice leader, and is wearing an "A". Buy him out, and transition the "A" to Tkachuk.

It's somewhere to start.