[CP Story] Home Woes

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Call him up!

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Save percentage can be a function of how well (or poorly) the team plays defensively.

Blaming the difference on goaltending is overly simplistic. Same goalies, but they just don't play well in red?

It’s definitely simplistic, but based on all the other generic excuses like bad coaching or being mentally weak are even bigger cop outs. This team has actually preformed really well at home when you look at the numbers and from the eye test. So if we’re playing better at home, theoretically, the home team sv% should actually be higher, but it’s not, it’s several tiers lower.

Any team in the league that gets subpar under .900 sv% throughout a season, generally has an under .500 record and that’s what we’re seeing right now. The Flames are under .500. It’s a simple excuse, but it’s true. If anyone can come up with something better, I’d like to hear it.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

This is the problem. Teams tend to play a different style at home, they tend to be fancier because maybe they get caught up with the crowd.

I've always noticed that teams tend to try to be prettier on home ice and a lot simpler on the road.

The really good teams play consistently no matter what color the uniform.

See, this is just another common and generic misconception. The team has been hearing this excuse all season. Don’t you think they would’ve simplified things this far into the season by now? Trying to be “fancy” doesn’t account for the gargantuan contrast that we’re seeing.

The honest truth is, the players and coaches probably don’t care whether or not the team scores pretty goals or ugly goals at home, it’s about wins and in my opinion, they’re not getting the same type of goaltending they need at home vs the road.

[Stay Golden]

Home record is the result of poor preperation by players and coaches. Should have been fixed by now. Also the Flames seem to take numerous bad penalties at home. At least it seems that is the case.

[Joborule]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

It’s definitely simplistic, but based on all the other generic excuses like bad coaching or being mentally weak are even bigger cop outs. This team has actually preformed really well at home when you look at the numbers and from the eye test. So if we’re playing better at home, theoretically, the home team sv% should actually be higher, but it’s not, it’s several tiers lower.

Any team in the league that gets subpar under .900 sv% throughout a season, generally has an under .500 record and that’s what we’re seeing right now. The Flames are under .500. It’s a simple excuse, but it’s true. If anyone can come up with something better, I’d like to hear it.

I would agree with this. Typically the games where our goalies give up a weak goal, or have a bad night, it's been at home. Two recents games where a fluky or bad performance that comes to mind is the Vegas blown win, and the Lightning loss where the Flames were up 4-1 in the 2nd, and end up losing 7-4.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by rhino

My theory is GG sucks at matching lines.

The coaches do the same things that they do on road and at home thougg. Backlund line plays against the tougest lines, Monahan’s line goes up against the opposition’s second scoring line and the bottom 6 vs the bottom 6. Almost every important stat says the team plays better at home than on the road except goaltending. If you don’t have that, you don’t have anything. It’s like Brian Elliott in the playoffs last season all over again, team played well enough to win the series, but Brian’s crappy goaltending was the reason we were swept.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Joborule

I would agree with this. Typically the games where our goalies give up a weak goal, or have a bad night, it's been at home. Two recents games where a fluky or bad performance that comes to mind is the Vegas blown win, and the Lightning loss where the Flames were up 4-1 in the 2nd, and end up losing 7-4.

Also, last night’s first goal on the first shot was not pretty. Set the tone for the game and sure enough, we lost. Wasn’t all on goaltending as the team was not good enough, but we definitely didn’t see Nashville Rittich last night. The goaltenders have stolen a lot wins for this team on the road this season, not sure we can say the same thing when we’re at home.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Expected save percentage vs actual save percentage is another way to look at it as well ... it tries to bring the team into it by looking at the quality of shots faced.

If you do a home vs road scrape of that date you get this on home ice.

Smith -.79 (90.46 vs 91.26)
Rittich -19.72 (72 vs 91.72)

On the road the numbers ...

Smith 3.87 (94.36 vs 90.49)
Rittich 2.00 (92.88 vs 90.88)

This says a few things ...

1. Sample size for Rittich on home ice is unfair
2. The Flames are giving up more on the road (expected save percentage for Smith is higher on home ice)
3. The goalies are saving less on home ice despite the Flames giving up less

Or ... Glen Gulutzan sucks

How is expected save percentage determined?

Or rather than that, are you using Corsica?

[Bingo]

Found some research ...

A positive xSV% result would indicate an above-average performance, while a negative value denotes a below-average performance. Similarly, a lower expected Sv% points to a relatively harder workload while a higher value indicates a relatively easier one.

Analysis of goaltending performance in hockey has traditionally relied on save percentage (Sv%). Recent efforts have improved on this statistic, such as adjusting for shot location and accounting for goals saved above average (GSAA). The common denominator of all these recent developments has been the use of completed shots on goal to analyze and predict goaltender performance.

https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/10/23...isting-models/

Takes shot locations and workload into account.

As an objective measure, a calculated expected save percentage that is higher at home than it is on the road suggests the goalies have had it easier at the Saddledome.

But the performance of both goaltenders have been better on the road compared to the expected baseline.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Found some research ...





https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/10/23...isting-models/

Takes shot locations and workload into account.

As an objective measure, a calculated expected save percentage that is higher at home than it is on the road suggests the goalies have had it easier at the Saddledome.

But the performance of both goaltenders have been better on the road compared to the expected baseline.

Thanks. I hadn’t looked at hockeygraphs yet, but have looked at Corsica to try to understand if there are broadly used models for shot quality using more than location as proxy

http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/...-goals-part-i/

Also found this decent overview on goalie stats
http://www.blueshirtsbreakaway.com/2...dvanced-stats/

[nfotiu]

Regardless of how this game turns out today, it adds more evidence to my theory that the Flames are giving up way to many odd man rushes and breakaways at home. I have to think that odd man rushes initial shots and rebounds are statistically way more dangerous than shots from anywhere once everyone is set up in the zone.

Do things like corsi account for that in any way? Or if there's a stretch where we have 5 or 6 shot attempts but we inevitably give up a breakaway or 2 on 1 and they score, then it's just bad luck?

It's something to my eyes that looks a problem we have at home but not on the road, and something the coaches need to figure out how to fix.

[Moneyhands23]

Team is just never going to preform with this coaching staff.

[skcli]

Fire the coach

[nfotiu]

I am a huge critic of the coaching at home, but I also think our coaches are capable of figuring out an answer. I also think they've shown enough to deserve the chance to figure it out, and they are also our best hope of salvaging the season.

[Classic_Sniper]

Team is in the toughest stretch of games with Boston x 2, Nashville, Vegas and a hot Flordia team. If we can make it through the next game with at least a point or more, I think we’re in good shape to make a final run.

[Joborule]

Is there any other team in the league in recent history that seems to be able to get positive results on the road more times than not, and the complete opposite at home? It seems so bizarre that home ice is actually a disadvantage to a team.

[Beninho]

They are flat out embarrassing at home, words do not describe how pathetic they are on their own ice. They’ve been so bad at home it’s comical, I better not hear anything about a new stadium after their brilliant performances in front of their fans. Very depressing season and I wouldn’t blame anyone who decides not to renew their tickets. Imo there Home record is down to coaching but I’m sure that’s debatable.

Hey Stajan, this is why the dome is quiet.